I’m not sure if it’s the poll itself or just the way the numbers are being presented, but if you can get past that, the news is good.
Latino voters overwhelming back Democrats over Republicans in the upcoming election, but a poll out Tuesday shows Hispanics are less motivated to vote.
A survey by the Pew Hispanic Center over the past two months showed that Latinos said they would support Democrats over Republicans in congressional races by a 2-to-1 margin, or 65 percent to 22 percent.
But the same poll found that only 51 percent of Hispanics surveyed said they are certain to vote, compared to 70 percent for U.S. registered voters as a whole.
“Hispanic registered voters appear to be less motivated than other voters to go to the polls,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, Pew Hispanic Center associate director.
The poll also found that Republican Latino registered voters are more likely than Democratic Latinos to participate, 44 percent to 28 percent.
But it also found that of those who identify with the GOP, only 18 percent said the Republican Party was better than the Democratic Party for the Latino community, while 60 percent said there was no difference.
It should be noted first that some other polls show Democrats have lost more ground among Latinos, though they still have solid majority support. The issue is mostly one of Democratic inaction on things like comprehensive immigration reform, as well as the same concerns about the economy as everyone else.
It should also be noted that when you see statements like “only 51 percent of Hispanics surveyed said they are certain to vote”, you get an idea of how dicey it can be to try to identify likely voters. Texas Democrats would kill to get Latino voting at that level.
I have no idea what to make of “Republican Latino registered voters are more likely than Democratic Latinos to participate, 44 percent to 28 percent”. Does that mean 44 percent of the 22 percent of Latinos who plan to support Republicans in Congressional races, and 28 percent of the 65 percent of Latinos who plan to support Democrats? (By the way, last I checked 65 is about three times as much as 22, not two times as much.) If so, that means about 9.7% of Latino Republicans and 18.2% of Latino Democrats. How that squares with the 51% that say they are certain to vote is anybody’s guess. Reading stories like this, it’s no wonder people don’t understand math. Campos and Stace have more.