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Updated Seliger-Solomons numbers

I had previously run the numbers for the new Congressional districts in the Seliger-Solomons plan. Now that we’ve gone from Plan C125 to Plan C130, let’s see what they look like now. Here’s a side-by-side comparison, with the districts grouped as before. First up, the Safe Republican seats:

C125 C130 C125 C130 Dist Obama Obama Houston Houston ======================================= 01 30.40 30.47 37.01 36.39 02 35.39 35.86 38.14 36.65 03 37.37 37.37 36.79 36.79 04 29.28 29.28 37.55 37.55 05 37.31 37.28 42.07 42.05 07 39.32 39.08 38.10 37.83 08 25.43 26.08 28.59 29.40 11 23.42 23.13 28.44 28.29 13 22.24 27.48 22.24 27.48 14 34.30 39.69 41.96 47.31 19 27.94 32.32 27.94 32.32 22 35.80 36.92 37.65 38.32 26 39.44 39.64 39.44 39.64

Note the big change to CD14, which reflects the fact that it exchanged some of Brazoria and Chambers for Jefferson. I wouldn’t get too excited by this, since as we’ve discussed neither Jefferson nor Galveston (the other main component to CD14) are trending the right way. It does reflect the overall lack of respect that Ron Paul has from the GOP establishment, however, as they’d never do that to anyone else, at least not without that person’s express consent.

You can’t make one district that much less red without making another one more so, and we see that change in the Likely Republican seats:

C125 C130 C125 C130 Dist Obama Obama Houston Houston ======================================= 06 41.67 41.67 44.29 44.28 10 43.81 42.77 44.14 43.41 12 42.50 42.50 43.10 43.10 17 40.71 40.94 43.98 44.08 21 42.51 42.67 40.48 40.61 24 40.55 40.54 39.91 39.91 25 42.40 42.83 43.63 43.95 27 40.78 40.31 46.28 45.85 31 42.61 42.61 42.47 42.47 32 43.79 43.79 43.63 43.63 33 42.64 42.64 43.90 43.90 36 41.02 29.58 47.46 39.30 C125 C130 C125 C130 Dist Obama Obama Houston Houston ======================================= 23 47.19 47.19 49.27 49.27

I went ahead and threw in Lean Republican CD23, since it didn’t change. But CD36 sure did, going from a possible target to a highly unlikely one. I figure losing the SN22 turf had an effect, though I note that CD02 managed to absorb it without any indigestion. (CD02 also got some redder turf from Harris to balance it out.) It now has the Republican parts of eastern Harris instead. At this point, I’d call CD36 Safe Republican and CD14 Likely Republican even though I don’t have much faith in there being a serious challenge. And I wonder who needs to write a thank-you note to Kel Seliger for this bit of generosity.

Not much change on the Democratic side of things:

C125 C130 C125 C130 Dist Obama Obama Houston Houston ======================================= 15 59.15 58.43 61.90 61.19 20 58.40 58.47 58.15 58.34 34 59.11 60.29 62.85 63.87 09 76.42 76.49 76.77 76.85 16 66.44 66.44 68.68 68.68 18 79.48 79.24 78.71 78.47 28 60.40 60.91 63.33 63.82 29 65.18 65.40 70.09 70.29 30 81.87 81.89 82.08 82.10 35 60.70 60.61 61.16 60.98

A precinct here, a precinct there, not much else to it. I will simply add, since Greg has made a big deal about this, that the SSVR% in CD20 has gone from 58.72% to 50.82%. That seems likely to get further scrutiny in the future. I should also note, as Greg did, that Plan C130 gave way to Plan C136, and what was finally passed was Plan C141, but the differences between them and Plan C130 on which these numbers are based are very minor.

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9 Comments

  1. Mainstream says:

    I don’t see an obvious GOP contender in CD36. Suggestions?

  2. [...] plan along strictly party lines, moving the map to the House. Charles Kuffner has some partisan breakdowns for the new [...]

  3. vbtexas says:

    For CD 36 these guys will look at it but I don’t know who would run.

    Senator Mike Jackson R-La Porte, eastern Harris is in this district but most of his Senate district is in Galveston.

    Rep. John Otto R-Dayton-Good chunk of his district is in CD 36

    Wayne Smith R-Baytown

    In Dallas they had to protect Sessions and Marchant had a demographic problem so their districts were both altered. If the rural areas of Hensarling’s district had not turned so hard red over the last 10-15 years his Dallas County portion could give him trouble in a few years. I don’t think EBJ needs a 82% Dem district. To draw CD33 as a GOP district they had to draw Barton into western Dallas County which is swing with GP/Irving but leans Dem when you add hispanic parts of oak cliff. Barton is saved by Ellis County, Cleburne, and Mansfield but may be in trouble by the end of the decade.

    I agree that CD23 needs to be targeted now, and 6, 7, 10, 26, 32 need to be looked at in future.

  4. [...] plan along strictly party lines, moving the map to the House. Charles Kuffner has some partisan breakdowns for the new [...]

  5. [...] devise along particularly celebration lines, relocating a map to a House. Charles Kuffner has some partisan breakdowns for a new [...]

  6. [...] away some of his red meat territory and gave him Galveston and Jefferson counties, something which failed to raise Kuff’s spirits. Note the big change to CD14, which reflects the fact that it exchanged some of Brazoria and [...]

  7. [...] Jason Stanford has a question. So why aren’t we targeting Ron Paul again? The Texas legislature drew him the reapportionment equivalent of a target on his back. They took away some of his red meat territory and gave him Galveston and Jefferson counties, something which failed to raise Kuff’s spirits. [...]

  8. [...] off his lawn. That’s why they drew him into a district that drove him into retirement, which Kuff noted. Note the big change to CD14, which reflects the fact that it exchanged some of Brazoria and [...]

  9. [...] heard it here first. As Jason Stanford and Abby Rapoport note, Paul and the GOP establishment have never much liked [...]

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