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Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large #2

What can you say about a ten-candidate pileup? Let’s start by seeing what the district numbers look like:

Dist Thibaut Perez Burks Goss Fraga Dick Pool Griff Robinson Shorter ==================================================================================== A 15.69% 17.99% 13.94% 3.03% 6.93% 11.67% 6.41% 11.35% 9.75% 3.25% B 8.93% 6.65% 31.58% 1.83% 4.70% 4.43% 5.48% 3.93% 18.52% 13.94% C 18.49% 10.79% 7.76% 1.41% 10.92% 9.49% 14.37% 11.63% 12.93% 2.20% D 7.24% 6.22% 35.65% 1.38% 4.64% 3.36% 4.45% 4.22% 13.85% 18.98% E 15.70% 23.72% 15.98% 2.69% 7.03% 9.61% 5.19% 9.44% 8.27% 2.38% F 28.18% 16.73% 11.24% 2.67% 5.41% 7.79% 5.23% 7.60% 9.72% 5.41% G 25.08% 15.87% 14.93% 1.64% 7.85% 9.80% 4.16% 9.95% 9.07% 1.65% H 9.93% 20.35% 9.70% 1.50% 24.90% 6.49% 7.73% 6.96% 8.31% 4.13% I 8.56% 24.54% 9.54% 1.82% 27.29% 4.11% 4.95% 4.74% 8.12% 6.34% J 20.07% 16.78% 11.47% 2.52% 8.47% 7.12% 7.14% 9.64% 11.79% 4.99% K 15.34% 11.16% 19.45% 1.92% 5.68% 4.69% 6.89% 7.52% 15.72% 11.62%

Starting from the top:

– Andrew Burks obviously and expectedly did well in the African-American areas. I had thought that Rozzy Shorter might shave a few points off his totals, and I daresay she did, but it wasn’t enough to knock him out. He also did pretty well everywhere else, no doubt in part to the decent name ID gained by being a seven time candidate for a Council seat, even if he himself can only remember five of them. I guess at some point it’s hard to keep track of them all.

– Kristi Thibaut did well in District C, but it was her advantage in the west/southwest part of town that carried her into the runoff. She led the field in Districts F and G, and had a strong showing in K as well, all of which was enough to overcome third-place finisher Elizabeth Perez’s advantages elsewhere (more on that in a second). Also good news for Thibaut is that three of the four candidates that finished behind her in C – Jenifer Pool, David Robinson, and Bo Fraga, who combined with her for almost 57% of the vote in C – have endorsed her for the runoff. She will need big margins in places like C to counter Burks’ numbers in B, D, and K.

– Perez won the Election Day vote and didn’t miss the runoff by much. She did well in the Republican districts as you’d expect, but both Thibaut and Burks were able to keep close enough to her to prevent her from passing them. Where she really did well was – say it with me now – in Districts H and I, where she outdistanced Thibaut by enough to wipe out her margin in District C. Unfortunately for her, she shared the ballot with Fraga, who did better than she did, thus again keeping her from making a real run at the top. While this looks on the surface a bit like a missed opportunity for the Republicans – Perez wasn’t exactly raking in the contributions – it’s a bit hard to see where she could have drummed up more support.

– The retiring Griff finished fourth in his old stomping grounds of District C, just ahead of Bo Fraga, and fourth in District E, just ahead of Eric Dick. I guess that means something, but compared to his performance in 2009 it’s hard to say what other than another step in the random walk. His single best shot at a win post-1993 was in 2007, if only he’d cared enough to do more than just show up.

– Speaking of Dick, well, there’s really not much to say, is there? He finished fourth in his home District A. He barely got half as many votes as Perez did for considerably more money. But a lot of people know his name now, so mission accomplished, I guess.

– David Robinson finished second in B, third in D, and second in K. I’m going to take a wild guess here and posit that his name was advantageous to him.

That’s about all I’ve got for now. Last but not least will be At Large #5, coming up next.

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5 Comments

  1. joshua bullard says:

    The problem here i have is clearly “kristi thaubaut”i call her the one hit wonder-i cant stand the fact that i have to constanly retread the same points-but here goes-this lady was a staff member in the state leg-she saw an opportunity to jump in a dem- land slide, in 2008- off the back of our president,in laymen terms”she got lucky”at the end of that one term she was voted out on her backside.now she sees another opportunity in where she doesnt have to stand on the merits of her short politcal flop-so shes taking it-“in this record store”kristi thaubaut”gets no play-and heres why,look at the massive numbers andrew c burks got in district b-these voters will return in the run off and they will alllllllll vote andrew c burks-at large 5-run off again-andrew c burks,

    dont believe the hype-believe me, when i tell you this race isnt close-its time/this time/andrew c burks at large 2………………………….no doubt in it.joshua ben bullard

  2. Mainstream says:

    I agree that David Robinson benefited from name ID of Laurie Robinson and Carroll Robinson, as evidenced by his strong support in the largely black districts.

    Fraga’s father’s district spanned some of the northern part of current district C, where Bo Fraga did better than some other districts, but he may have done well in Montrose precincts as well.

    I could be wrong, but thought Dick lived now in C, in a section which was formerly in A.

  3. “I could be wrong, but thought Dick lived now in C, in a section which was formerly in A.”

    You may be right about that. I still have a shaky grasp of where the new districts are. His voter reg card was not visible online for me to verify.

  4. Greg Wythe says:

    @Mainstream … I’m not sure that it was two unknown Robinsons that David benefited from. I’m more inclined to think that it was the *other* David Robinson that he benefited from.

    I’ve posted maps for the AL races. Fraga didn’t really get anything extra out of the Montrose precincts. He did ok in a smattering of Heights precincts, but nothing to the extent that Kristi benefited in her former House District. If Fraga moves into District I tomorrow, he could be a strong candidate there after Rodriguez is term-limited.

  5. Hobby says:

    I have to agree with Greg. Next go ’round if Fraga runs for District I, I think he would do well.