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Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large #5

Last but certainly not least, the race everyone is wondering about, At Large #5:

Dist Robinson Jones Christie Ryan ======================================= A 17.10% 23.61% 48.91% 10.38% B 18.80% 73.00% 5.09% 3.11% C 25.07% 30.02% 35.57% 9.35% D 14.96% 73.56% 7.86% 3.62% E 19.97% 13.73% 54.51% 11.79% F 19.44% 30.45% 37.41% 12.70% G 14.99% 14.70% 61.81% 8.49% H 23.23% 45.26% 21.10% 10.41% I 26.13% 41.33% 21.39% 11.14% J 20.19% 31.78% 35.56% 12.47% K 20.85% 51.01% 21.54% 6.60%

For comparison purposes, here are my analyses of the 2009 runoff and regular election for At Large #5. I’m going to keep this simple, because I think Greg captures most of the important points. Superficially, the race this year resembles the one from 2009, in that you had CM Jolanda Jones versus Jack Christie, an African-American woman, and another Republican. Clearly, though, Laurie Robinson > Davetta Daniels, and Carlos Obando at least had second place finishes in the old Districts H and I to show for his effort. Jones remained strong in B and D – she scored 76% and 70% in the old versions, respectively. While Robinson did better than Daniels in those districts – Daniels had 8% and 14% – she didn’t take a noticeable amount of that vote away from Jones. But Jones starts out with a lower percentage than last time, suggesting there may be more people than before that are willing to vote her out.

Which is a problem, of course, because she won by a very slender margin last time. The main difference this time is that the 2009 runoff was a relatively high profile affair, with Gene Locke and Ronald Green also on the ballot, wooing African-American voters. Over 160,000 people voted in the ’09 runoff. Here, Jones’ race is the top of the ticket, and Andrew Burks will hope to ride her coattails because he has no momentum of his own. If the 2011 election was like the 2007 election, perhaps the 2011 runoff will be like the 2007 runoff, in which case we can expect maybe 25,000 to 30,000 voters. It all comes down to who comes out. Jones has no room for error. The scary thing for her is that when you shrink the voter pool that much, even if the basic shape of the electorate is the same as it was two years ago, a little random fluctuation here or there could be the difference. I’ll say it again, I would not bet against her, but I would hate to be in this position. It’s anyone’s ball game.

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13 Comments

  1. joshua bullard says:

    “burks has no momentum of his own”-wow-that looks like a shot-ill argue this point-andrew c burks has been building momentum for years,kuffs numbers show this undoubtly,just review them if you like-“ten canidate pileup”damn right and look at who toppled all of them,andrew c burks,its one thing to get in a run off with three canidates,but to top the field in a “ten canidate pileup”wow,i know as a matter of fact for the run off i am going to load the wagon with my mom from alief,my brother from bissonett and his friend,then i am going to have my old roommate from school trunk ride,we are all voting this way at large 5-jack christie——at large #2-andrew c burks

    see you at the polls———-joshua ben bullard

    ps-“its time/this time/andrew c burks at large# 2……………………………

  2. Burt Levine says:

    Joshua Bullard is the 21st Century Patriot that built this country and state on the frontiers and the frontlines of freedom in the 18th and 19th Centuries. His truisms ring loud, clear and should be celebrated from Kingwood to Clear Lake, Alief to Aldine, Spring Branch to Sharpstown and Sunnyside, First Ward, Fourth Ward and Fifth Ward, McGregor, Montrose and Meyerland. Bullward worked tirelessly to get the people’s pulse. That’s wht he cites America is a better place because he’s there for us at Bayland Park and other polls.

  3. paul kubosh says:

    Ben, I sure wish I could change your mind about Jones. I believe the city needs her. I just don’t understand why we disagree.

  4. Buffalo Bayou Liberal says:

    What a crew of people you have commenting on this post.

  5. Jules says:

    I will definitely make the time to vote for Jo Jones in the runoff.

  6. JJ says:

    Bill White endorses Jack Christie. Nuff said.

  7. Burt Levine says:

    Paul, who is Ben?

  8. joshua bullard says:

    “paul”-when i wrote 2005-245 a new code in the city of houston,to sheild people from second hand smoke at all “covered” bus stops,metro rail and park and ride stations city wide,mayor white wasnt a fan-to my surprise it was a republican council woman that took interest in my cause and helped get this local law passed-dr shelly sekula gibbs.in 2010 i went to my old associate on city council jolanda jones and asked her to assist me on an updated smoking ordinace to sheild kids from second hand smoke in cars in houston on city property-as seen on channel eleven news-she refused.When i would run into her from time to time she would always say i had to schedule an appointment with her office for her to speak with me-“this is a lady i helped beat the half a percent the last run off” and she is turning her back on me,now then, this go around i will be meeting with my pastor of my church that i have been a member of for over 28years-dr ed young of second baptist,i will ask him to have the member base bused to the run off polls to vote jack christie and andrew c burks,un like you paul,i think the city of houston is ready for a new council member and are ready for jolanda to be on her way-its nothing personal”its political”thats thats……………

    respectfully submitted
    joshua “ben” bullard

    ps-@jules-i see your post-you are qyte the card……….i must say………….

  9. Paul Kubosh says:

    Ben, I understand your position and your anger. I feel the same way about just about all members of City Council. The thing I like most about Jones is that she will always give an opposing view and will not rubber stamp the Mayors position. I predict that if Christie is elected he will be just another Robot who falls in line with Parker hoping he can get scraps from her table. Is it any wonder why the Mayor wants him elected? Also if Dr. Young didn’t bus members to the poll in the Mayor’s election there is no way he will bus members to the polls in the run off. Have a good day.

    Buffalo, what does that mean? This is the one of the best places on the net to keep up with local politics. I have a tendency to lien right on my political views. Therefore, I try to keep up with Charles’s blogs to get a feel for whats going on in the City. Have a good day.

  10. Paul Kubosh says:

    Ben, I am with you on Burks…if you check the ethics reports you will see. If we get Brown, Burks, and Jones I will be a happy man.

  11. Jules says:

    Thanks, Joshua. I have good reasons for voting for Jo Jones. She isn’t afraid to vote against Mayor Parker. She voted No on the Ainbinder 380 and more recently on the Kroger 380. Very impressed with her for making decisions on what the people want versus what the Mayor wants.

  12. Burt Levine says:

    Paul:

    I want you to be two thirds happy.

    Burt