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November was like 2007, December is more like 2005

Here’s the daily report for the first six days of Early Voting in the runoff. There have been 17,568 votes cast so far, with today still to go. That means there have been more early votes cast in Harris County than there were in the entire 2007 runoff, when 11,374 ballots were cast before Runoff Day. Indeed, we had already exceeded that total by the end of Friday’s early voting. So, even though turnout for the November, 2011 election in the City of Houston was nearly identical to turnout from 2007, the December election is looking more like the runoff from 2005. In 2007, there was a grand total of 25,382 votes cast. At the rate we’re going, Early Voting in this runoff may approach that number. A better model may be 2005, with 38,620 votes cast, though I daresay that may be a bit low. There were only 14,233 early votes cast in the 2005 runoff, but early voting was less popular back then.

Given what we’ve seen so far, I’d put the over/under now at about 50,000 votes. The main difference is that in 2007 the one At Large runoff, between now-CM Jolanda Jones and Joe Trevino, was a much more low-profile and low-dollar affair than what we’ve got this time. Jolanda wasn’t Jolanda yet in 2007, if you get what I mean, so that race was almost beneath the radar – the two district runoffs generated more attention. This year we have two At Large runoffs with three of the four candidates raising money and the fourth having a hundred elections’ worth of name recognition, with the two district runoffs generating some heat as well. The 2005 runoff had only one At Large race, between now-CM Sue Lovell and Jay Aiyer, but it had a fair amount of money as well as some controversy. This year we have some familiar names and enough money to raise the bar a bit. It’s still an extreme low turnout race – we’re talking five percent turnout instead of three or four – but clearly there are some gradations in there.

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3 Comments

  1. joshua bullard says:

    lol lol lol lol lol -kuffner-i got to hand it you-your not a flip flopper by any means-this post here had me a beached whale on the floor of my starbucks on 2000 smith street laughing non stop,i admire the fact that your consistant with your “shots”if your not whaling on a canidate-your steady with the kidney jabs-but in all fair ness-we should point out the houston area realtors respectfully endorsed andrew c burks in this run off for at large # 2.

    nice call har.com-were with you- i mean “my family in the loaded wagon”of course……………..

    joshua ben bullard

  2. Burt Levine says:

    Joshua Bullard is brave stalwart for what makes America great!

  3. […] total for the 2007 runoff, so suffice it to say there was more interest this time around. As I said last time, based on this I’ll move the over/under line to 50,000 votes. You want other predictions, […]