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The plaintiffs’ proposal for the Lege

I know it will break your heart to hear that Harris County GOP Chair Jared Woodfill is a little peeved at Greg Abbott and Steve Munisteri because he thinks the Abbott map makes Harris County too Democratic.

What got Woodfill going was Munisteri’s willingness to go along with a map Abbott produced that would cost Harris County Republicans two seats in the state House. “Local Republicans feel like we’re being sold out,” Woodfill told me.

His Saturday e-mail — “a respectful e-mail,” he called it — urged Harris County Republicans to contact Munisteri and Abbott to register their objections to the map. “Unfortunately, my reasonable request has been met with finger-pointing, reassigning blame and simply passing the buck,” he wrote in a subsequent e-mail Monday morning.

By Monday afternoon, things had gotten testier. “This thing has blown up into a war,” he said over the phone.

[...]

“We’ve worked to long and too hard for this to happen,” said Woodfill, who also said he had received hundreds of e-mails in support of his no-surrender stance. Paul Bettencourt, Dr. Steven Hotze, Allen Blakemore and other conservative stalwarts were urging him on, he said.

“Any map which costs Harris County Republicans at least two seats is unacceptable,” Woodfill repeated. “Let’s continue the fight and let the San Antonio three-judge panel do what they will. If they refuse to accept the Supreme Court mandate, then we will appeal again. However, if we accept a compromised deal with the wild-eyed left, then we lose our right to appeal. Remember, we will have to live with these lines for the next 10 years, so we must get them right now. Then we can be about the business of defeating the Democrats in November.”

You can see more of the email squabbling here and here if you’re into that sort of thing. Far be it from me to defend Greg Abbott, but I feel pretty confident that he wouldn’t yield any ground he didn’t think he was certain to lose anyway. He certainly doesn’t care about the best interests of any Democrat. But hey, don’t let me stop you from stocking up on pitchforks and torches, Jared. You go on with your bad self there.

If Woodfill et al don’t like Abbott’s proposed interim map, they surely aren’t going to like the map proposed by the non-MALDEF plaintiffs, which is Plan H307. Here’s a little comparison of the numbers for districts of interest in that plan (full data here) with those from Plan H303, the Abbott plan (full data here.

Dist Incumbent Plan McCain Obama Wainwright Houston ========================================================= 26 Howard*+ H303 61.51 37.77 60.74 37.17 26 Howard*+ H307 51.38 47.96 50.44 47.52 54 Aycock* H303 51.20 47.93 47.97 49.01 54 Aycock* H307 38.68 60.56 36.78 60.44 77 Marquez H303 34.56 64.25 30.18 66.08 77 Marquez H307 35.82 62.99 31.53 64.75 78 Margo* H303 43.64 55.31 39.57 56.84 78 Margo* H307 42.65 56.31 38.49 57.90 80 T.King H303 48.65 50.76 41.30 55.87 80 T.King H307 47.51 51.94 40.34 56.84 85 Open H303 58.68 40.68 52.81 45.22 85 Open H307 65.84 33.46 61.62 36.37 90 Burnam H303 29.89 69.40 25.82 72.00 90 Burnam H307 28.20 71.11 24.41 73.50 93 Nash* H303 57.57 41.60 55.45 41.54 93 Nash* H307 50.94 48.08 47.78 49.07 101 Open H303 37.82 61.59 35.63 62.19 101 Burkett* H307 50.21 48.89 46.00 51.47 102 Carter* H303 52.18 46.64 50.17 46.75 102 Carter* H307 39.61 59.52 36.79 60.78 103 Anchia H303 31.44 67.47 28.78 68.04 103 Anchia H307 30.78 68.13 28.22 68.59 104 Alonzo H303 30.25 68.76 25.88 71.39 104 Alonzo H307 33.92 65.05 29.22 67.98 105 H-Brown* H303 52.69 46.14 48.72 48.18 105 H-Brown* H307 47.50 51.38 43.64 53.34 107 Sheets* H303 52.25 46.71 48.72 48.46 107 Sheets* H307 47.13 51.44 47.11 49.33 108 Branch* H303 53.86 44.88 54.77 42.18 108 Branch* H307 60.04 38.90 60.34 37.20 112 C. Button* H303 54.89 44.03 51.69 45.68 112 C. Button* H307 58.15 40.88 54.86 42.55 113 Driver*+ H303 53.00 46.05 49.53 47.87 113 Open H307 37.34 62.01 35.73 62.05 114 Hartnett*+ H303 52.36 46.57 51.71 45.66 114 Hartnett*+ H307 55.60 43.12 53.39 43.43 115 Jackson*+ H303 54.91 43.86 53.62 43.24 115 Jackson*+ H307 57.22 41.55 55.76 41.11 117 Garza* H303 47.71 51.33 44.69 51.76 117 Garza* H307 46.49 52.52 43.73 52.76 118 Farias H303 42.57 56.36 37.44 58.81 118 Farias H307 43.86 55.10 38.62 57.61 132 Callegari* H303 59.68 39.59 57.27 40.62 132 Callegari* H307 49.40 49.93 46.95 50.96 134 S.Davis* H303 54.39 44.59 56.95 40.36 134 S.Davis* H307 52.63 46.30 54.74 42.57 136 Vo H303 34.89 64.47 32.15 65.73 136 Open H307 51.81 45.92 51.20 42.93 137 Hochberg+ H303 43.64 55.47 42.22 55.26 137 Hochberg+ H307 35.69 63.58 33.01 64.54 143 Luna H303 35.22 64.14 27.89 70.22 143 Luna H307 33.75 65.61 26.92 71.24 144 Legler* H303 51.04 47.95 43.02 54.53 144 Legler* H307 47.99 51.02 40.04 57.59 145 Alvarado H303 41.99 57.13 35.76 61.73 145 Alvarado H307 38.27 60.97 32.15 65.64 147 Coleman H303 18.94 80.34 18.16 79.68 147 Coleman H307 22.56 76.63 21.95 75.72 148 Farrar H303 41.43 57.49 37.68 59.18 148 Farrar H307 41.28 57.65 37.60 59.22 149 Open H303 51.81 45.92 51.20 42.93 149 Vo H307 38.60 60.66 36.58 61.08

* = Republican incumbent
+ = Not running for re-election, at least as of last report

The above represents all of the Democratic districts in which changes were made, the districts that become Democratic (or at least Democratic-leaning) as the result of changes, and a few other related districts that show where all the Republicans were relocated. Some of these changes are simply the result of renumbering. HD101 becomes HD113 and vice versa in Plan H307, while Hubert Vo’s district is HD136 in H303 and reverts back to HD149 in H307, with HD136 becoming the new Williamson County district. (Districts 30, 33, and 34 were shuffled around with no precinct changes made, just the labels.) You can see some pretty big changes, however, which would likely result in at least another 3 or so seats for the Dems. Districts 26 and 93 come (back) into play, while districts 102, 105, and 107 go from lean/likely R to lean/likely D. Most surprising to me is HD132, which remains a west Harris County district but shifts radically in partisan performance. I don’t have CVAP or SSVR numbers, but I’m guessing it’s a lot more Latino in the plaintiffs’ plan. That one I didn’t see coming.

Here’s a look at how Harris County and the Metroplex fare under each map:

Harris County - Plan H303 (Abbott)

Harris County - Plan H307 (Plaintiffs)

Dallas and Tarrant Counties - Plan H303 (Abbott)

Dallas and Tarrant Counties - Plan H307 (Plaintiffs)

If all that’s not enough for you, here’s 2008 electoral data for the two Congressional plans submitted by the NAACP, PlanC232 (map here) and PlanC233 (map here). Both restore CD25 for Lloyd Doggett and give three of the four new districts to Democrats while making Quico Canseco’s CD23 a tossup/lean Democratic district. PlanC232 makes Smokey Joe Barton’s CD06 a tossup/lean Republican district, while PlanC233 makes Ken Marchant’s CD24 a lean/likely Democratic district. As CD14 remains the same in each and in the Abbott map, that means Dems would likely win between 12 and 15 seats under C232 and between 13 and 15 seats under C233.

None of this may ultimately matter, of course. The parties could come to some other agreements, an outcome that looks increasingly remote right now, except possibly for the Senate. The San Antonio court could decide that the Abbott maps are good enough. Alternately, the San Antonio court could wait for the DC court ruling despite its seeming insistence on coming up with something in time to salvage an April primary and then draw something completely different. Who knows? Actually, at this point, any hope for an April primary is all but dead, and we have less than three weeks to get maps in time for a May 29 primary. I suspect that somewhere in all of these pieces is most if not all of the final puzzle. It’s making they fit together that’s the hard part. See Michael Li’s live Twitter feed for the blow by blow of yesterday’s hearing, which will continue today. Greg has more.

UPDATE: Michael Li summarizes the day’s activity.

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One Comment

  1. [...] process. In fact, the non-MALDEF intervenors in the San Antonio lawsuit did propose a map that drew HD132 as a lean-Dem district. It wasn’t addressed by the DC court in its ruling denying preclearance on the maps, so we [...]

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