Here are your seven day early voting totals for the 2012 primaries, and some historical context to go along with them.
Year 7 day Early 7 day % Final 7 day % Early %
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2004 R 11,330 28,217 38.91% 82,212 13.78% 34.32%
2004 D 8,607 22,523 38.21% 78,692 10.94% 28.62%
2008 R 28,773 66,375 43.35% 171,108 16.81% 38.79%
2008 D 81,843 179,348 45.63% 410,908 19.92% 43.65%
2012 R 36,612
2012 D 17,635
If history holds, more than half, perhaps 60%, of the early and mail ballots will be cast this week, and at least twice as many more as that final total will be cast the following Tuesday. Of course, no one thinks this is a normal year, so who knows what will happen. My opinion all along has been that this would be like 2004, and so far we’re on track for that – if the seven day total is about 20% of the final total, then there will be between 85,000 and 90,000 Democratic votes. Republicans are obviously so far on pace for about double that. We’ll see if that continues. Feel free to make your own guess about turnout in the comments.
Did somebody say ‘enthusiasm gap’?
Did somebody say “Multi-million dollar GOP Senate primary”?
I don’t know what to say. I would give anything to see the 08 numbers for the Democrats show up again without it being a historical vote. That would really shake up the Republican leadership. It may even force a new group of leaders. Leaders who would “return phone calls” or accept the offer my brother gave to perform and independent audit of the financials. On a personal level I have never been afraid of an election. I trust the people.
theres a whole lot of democrat constable candidates running camps-pre-7 has like six candidates, and castleberry is brining voters in by the truck load,,and guess who there all voting for dem/chair————————-not lane————–
my group tells me lane is behind by 2 to 1
joshua ben bullard…………..2012
Joshua that is bold. I hope you are right. If you are right I gotta take you to dinner on me. We will celebrate and talk strategy.
not to worry-i got the connected information,lane cant pull threw the massive turn out of voters coming to vote in the constable races,especially precint 7,in which may walker challanger michael coleman has put up 11 freeway billboards and has may against the ropes….
lane’s base is not turning out,keryl will take it…
and the dinner is perfect,the strategy goes with out saying.
bullard ben joshua