Democratic challenger Pete Gallego is leading Republican incumbent Quico Canseco (43% Gallego / 38% Canseco) in the race to represent Texas’ 23rd Congressional District. The 23rd is a swing district that is very competitive at the top of the ticket, and Gallego is well-positioned to take advantage of Canseco’s unimpressive popularity and job rating. Gallego not only leads Canseco, but also critical undecided voters show a propensity to break for Gallego. If Gallego and his allies are able to fund a robust communication plan rebutting Canseco/GOP attacks, Gallego stands an excellent chance to oust the Republican incumbent.
Pete Gallego leads Quico Canseco by five points, and undecided voters appear more likelyto break Democratic than Republican.
Despite Canseco’s incumbency and name -ID advantages, Democrat Pete Gallegocurrently leads Canseco 43% to 38%.
Undecided voters (18% of the electorate) are disproportionately Hispanic, a group among whom Gallego overwhelmingly leads (60% Gallego / 20% Canseco).
That’s all from the polling memo, which doesn’t tell us much else beyond the fact that Obama led in their sample by a 46-45 mark, and Democrats were preferred to control Congress by 44-41. I don’t have the questions, partisan breakdown, or crosstabs, so I can’t give you any kind of analysis of this. However, I disagree with the assertion that this poll should be taken with a “big grain of salt”. It is just one data point, and it is of limited value since it has limited information, but as Steve Singiser pointed out awhile back, internal polls do tell us something, especially when only one side is releasing them. Far as I know, there’s been no counter-poll released by the Canseco campaign or an ally of it. For sure, they have their own data. If they’re not sharing it, they either feel sufficiently confident in their position to not bother with a response, or they don’t have a suitable rebuttal at hand. Which do you think is more likely? Canseco also has his own 47% issue, which I’m sure will come up in the voluminous advertising for the race. This will be a hard-fought race to the end, but it’s clearly one Gallego can win.