Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day.
Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey included a national sample of 5,600 Latino voters, as well as 11 state specific samples of Latino voters, including several key battleground states. This post summarizes some of the highlights from that webinar presentation, with the full slide deck and toplines for the full national and state results available below.
Latino support for President Obama was huge, with a record-breaking 75% of Latino voters nationwide (see below) casting their ballot for the President- the previous high for Latino voters was the 72% for Bill Clinton in 1996. Romney’s share of 23% was nowhere near the 38% his team identified as his “magic number” for Latinos nationally.
Here’s their methodology:
The national sample carries an overall margin of error of 1.8%. This margin-of-error is adjusted to account for the design effect resulting from 12 unique sample strata of varying size and post-stratification weighting used to derive the national estimate. California and Florida each had 800 completed interviews and carry a margin of error of 3.5%. The remaining 9 individual states sampled — Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia — all had 400 completed interviews and carry a margin of error of 4.9%.
So there we have an answer to my question about Texas Latinos and Latinos elsewhere, which is that Texas Latinos are indeed basically like Latinos elsewhere when it comes to how they vote. It’s not definitive – one poll can only tell you so much – but until someone else does a similar poll in Texas, it’s what we know. On a side note, I’ll point out Mike Baselice’s claim, as seen in the Trib, that Romney did 12 to 15 percentage points better with Hispanics in Texas than in California. Latino Decisions showed Obama winning California 78-20 among Latinos, and 70-29 among Texas Latinos, but as I have no data from Baselice to examine, it may just be that he’s reporting on a small sample. Even if you take him at his word, that would put Obama at as much as 68% in Texas, which is close enough to the Latino Decisions number to be not worth quibbling about. And for what it’s worth, Baselice also claimed that David Dewhurst was going to beat Ted Cruz. In other words, caveat emptor and all that.