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Is Hillary the key to turning Texas blue?

Maybe, but it’ll take more than this to convince me.

The Lone Star State is headed blue — the only question is WHEN Texas becomes a Democratic state. If Hillary Clinton runs for president, she will have a fighting chance of carrying Texas, which shares revolutionary demographic trends rewriting the rules of politics, and of creating opportunities for Democrats to regain control of the House and achieve a national realignment of Rooseveltian magnitude.

No less an authority than Karl Rove is known to have been worrying about the political future of Texas for years, with good reason. If Clinton were to run in 2016, she would attract a giant surge of the demographically powerful Hispanic vote, an equally giant surge of the equally powerful women’s vote, a strong surge of support from younger voters who are developing lifetime habits of voting Democratic, and strong support from seniors and boomers.

These trends are as powerful in Texas as they are nationally. Some enterprising pollster will run the numbers for Hillary versus various Republicans that will show the potential strength of a Clinton candidacy in the Lone Star State.

There’s pretty much nothing in the piece that could be construed as evidence or data, just a bunch of rah-rah stuff. Believe it or don’t, it doesn’t really advance the case for or against. For what it’s worth, PPP says Hillary would be competitive in Texas in 2016, but 1) to say the least, it’s early days, and 2) at some point partisan identity generally outweighs whatever warm feelings one may currently have about someone on the other team. I’m down with Hillary 2016, I do think she’d get people fired up, and I think she’d be at least somewhat likely to put resources into the state, but that and a buck twenty-five will get you a ride on the Main Street Line. Mostly I find it amusing to be having this conversation at all, because five years ago at this time we were talking about how much a Hillary Clinton candidacy would inspire Texas Republicans to never before seen heights of sound and fury. Those were the days, am I right?

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2 Comments

  1. Katy Anders says:

    I’m becoming increasingly concerned with the Brer Rabbit routine that the GOP is doing with Hillary’s Presidential prospects.

    Dick Cheney, Newt Gingrich, and how many others have said, “Oh no! We have NO ONE who could even come close to beating her! If she runs, we are doomed!”

    I can only assume they have film of her cheating on Bill Clinton with Monica Lewinsky.

  2. Mike says:

    I would have preferred Hillary 2008 / Obama 2016 but I will take this as well.

    I think Hillary would keep Texas to within 10 pt loss for the Democrats in 2016 and if she has a good first term, she could help turn Texas blue in 2020. I am not buying that 2016 will be competitive, but hope I am wrong!

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