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Precinct analysis: Two quick takes

I had wondered if partisan affiliation might be a factor in the HISD 7 race between Republican incumbent Harvin Moore and Democratic challenger Anne Sung. Like Houston races, HISD Trustee races are officially non-partisan, but also like Houston races, people tend to know what team everyone plays for. What did the precinct data tell us?

Dist Moore Sung ==================== C 1,278 2,046 F 148 223 G 4,921 3,126 J 240 358

That’s pretty strong evidence right there. Sung got 61.6% in Democratic district C, Moore got 61.2% in Republican G. District G was the bigger part of HISD 7, so Moore won. For a Democratic challenger like Sung to win a race like this in the future, she’d either need to at least double the turnout in the District C part of the district, or she’d need to win a decent number of crossovers, or both. So now we know.

Since I’ve been advocating that people who didn’t like Dave Wilson’s election to the HCC Board of Trustees need to take their frustration over it out in the runoff for HCC 1, it’s fair to ask what Zeph Capo‘s path to victory is, since Yolanda Navarro Flores got about 48% of the vote in November. Precinct data suggests what that path is:

Dist Flores Capo Hoffman ============================== B 103 18 34 C 3,516 2,561 1,956 G 245 175 197 H 1,851 431 610 J 201 50 105

Basically, Zeph Capo needs to win the District C part of the district. That’s the biggest part of the district in terms of turnout, but it needs to be maximized, and Capo needs to get Kevin Hoffman’s voters to come to the polls for him. Kevin Hoffman confirmed for me via email that he has endorsed Capo in the runoff – he also shared this open letter he sent to the Board with his hopes for their direction going forward – so if you supported Kevin Hoffman in Round One, you have no reason not to support Zeph Capo in Round 2. Capo has a lot of ground to make up, but he also has a lot of potential supporters available if he can reach them.

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2 Comments

  1. Christopher Busby says:

    Its a misnomer that District C is a Democratic district. Obama only won a plurality of the district in 2008. While Ellen Cohen represents the district the three councilmembers to represent C before her were Republicans.

    It is by definition a swing district with a slight R lean on municipal off year elections.

  2. joshua ben bullard says:

    charles kuffner is wrong on the harvin moore vs anne sung hisd race=i called that race 52% harvin moore to anne sung 48%=if i remember correctly i even posted my prediction right here on off the kuff=anyways=here is how anne sung lost the race=kuffner says she should have got more voters to vote out of c=the problem is there were not any voters left to drag to the polls=what anne sung didnt do=which i would have done for certain=i would have run a strong=limited=negative campaign against hrvin moore in district g=so in district c f and g i would have run positive=but in district g my mail would have went a heavy heavy negative in g= anne sung’s campaign gave him this district,even though they knew this would be his strong hold=i would have went negative on harvin in g threw mail=i would have went negative threw the voters in the district in my blockwalking teams=i would have had the campaign market at the elemantry schools in that district =this race was won and lost in district g=but what do i know, i just politicaly pushed council member electRichard Nguyen in to office on a 9000$ budget,imagine that,a city employee that was passed over pay raises and promotions year in and year out,now hes the boss of the director of the dept….
    (i cant wait to do it all over again with the next candidate).
    only in america kuffner
    joshua ben bullard

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