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The Latino Victory Project

I like the sound of this.

Building on record-breaking fundraising numbers, an expanded donor base and a historically high number of Latino voters in the 2012 presidential election, a progressive Latino group is set to officially begin efforts to expand the reach of Latino voters and candidates in the 2014 cycle and beyond.

Founded by actress and advocate Eva Longoria and Henry R. Munoz III, a businessman and finance chairman of the Democratic National Committee, the Latino Victory Project includes the Latino Victory PAC, a political arm that will back a slate of candidates who embody “a pro-Latino agenda and values” on issues such as immigration reform, the environment, the economy and health care.

“We want to build political power within the Latino community and institutionalize what happened in 2012. There needs to be a movement right now,” Longoria said. “We can really exercise the potential, because people see the demographic shift and are now saying, ‘Hi, Mr. Garcia. Hi, Mrs. Lopez.’ We want to make sure the names on the ballot reflect that power.”

To that end, the PAC will back a slate of seven Latino candidates — Reps. Joe Garcia (Fla.), Pete Gallegos (Tex.) and Raul Ruiz (Calif.); Amanda Renteria, who is running for Congress in California; and Nevada Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, who is running for lieutenant governor; Texas state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte, who also is running for lieutenant governor; and Angel Taveras, the mayor of Providence, R.I., who is running for governor.

Charlie Crist, who is running for his old job as governor of Latino-heavy Florida, also will receive the group’s support.

Although 11 million Latinos cast ballots in the 2012 election, about 12 million stayed away, and Latinos still vote at a lower rate than any other group. That same year, Latino elected officials did make gains nationwide, in state legislatures and in Congress, with a record 31 now serving in Congress, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.

Yet their representation in Congress is below 17 percent, the make-up of Latinos in the general population.

“The disparity is so stark and that’s why we have to begin developing the pipeline now, not only for 2014 but laying groundwork that will take us to 2016 and then to 2020,” said Cristobal Alex, president of the Latino Victory Project. “That is the year for us when Latinos will be in a position to influence the Oval Office. Our vision for 2020 is that we will have a record number of Latino voters to help influence redistricting and to help drive and influence policy for the balance of the century. This will take some time.”

[...]

The group grew out of the Futuro Fund, which raised $30 million for Obama’s reelection and created a new cadre of high- and low-dollar donors, with 150,000 Latinos contributing.

Among the specific initiatives is a program called “The Firsts,” which will focus on Latinos who are the first in their families and communities to reach educational and professional milestones, a designation that often falls to the eldest daughter, who Alex said is often the “CEO in the family.”

“By 2016, we want 100,000 of the firsts,” Alex said. “And they will elevate the first Lucy Flores, the first Leticia Van De Putte.”

Indeed, sparking the kind of movement Longoria envisions means engaging Latinas.

“Women definitely make the household decisions, economic decisions, educational decisions, and in turn, that correlates with the political decisions,” she said.

See here for their website, and here for a bit of background. It sounds like they’ve got a Battleground Texas-like model, which is all about engaging neighbors and friends to spread the word. I’m delighted to see that they’ll be supporting Sen. Van de Putte and Rep. Gallego, both of whom could use all the involvement they can get. They’re right that this will take time, so who knows how much effect it may have this year, but there’s no time like the present to get started. Stace has more.

One more thing:

Texas, with its 38 electoral votes, remains the biggest political prize for Democrats, yet the Lone Star state has remained solidly red. The state’s brightest stars are Latinos, among them Sen. Ted Cruz; George P. Bush, who is running for Texas land commissioner; and twin brothers Joaquin Castro, a congressman, and Julian, who is mayor of San Antonio.

In Texas, Democrats don’t have a solid lock on Latinos; 40 percent backed Gov. Rick Perry in 2010.

groan Where do these not-based-in-Texas writers come up with these numbers. No citation is given, so one presumes it’s little more than someone’s idea of conventional wisdom. As I’ve said many times before, this sort of thing can be easily checked with actual election data. Here’s how Rick Perry did in the most heavily Latino State Rep districts in 2010.

Dist SSVR% Perry White Perry% White% ============================================ 31 75.77 10,135 13,454 42.01% 55.77% 35 73.67 6,465 10,663 37.19% 61.34% 36 82.58 4,035 9,459 29.55% 69.26% 37 77.19 6,245 10,273 36.96% 60.79% 38 77.01 6,420 9,144 39.11% 59.26% 39 81.43 5,278 13,987 27.03% 71.64% 40 85.44 3,086 8,898 25.37% 73.16% 42 85.76 4,992 16,985 22.41% 76.24% 75 80.97 3,042 7,260 29.04% 69.31% 76 80.69 4,033 12,758 23.57% 74.57% 80 78.50 7,320 13,486 34.58% 63.70% Total 61,051 126,367 32.57% 67.43%

Election and SSVR data can be found here. As with the claims that Mitt Romney took 36% of the Latino vote in Texas and Ted Cruz took 40%, the empirical evidence does not bear this unsupported, context-free claim out. As always, this sort of analysis is limited and somewhat hazy, as the actual percentage of Latino voters in these districts in any given election may be considerably less than the Spanish Surname Registered Voter (SSRV) percentage. Given that most of the non-Latino voters in these districts will be Anglo, whose support for Rick Perry or whichever other Republican we’re looking at is likely to be a lot higher than these numbers, that suggests Perry’s actual level of Latino support in these districts is lower that what you see here. This represents less than twenty percent of the total statewide Latino vote, but to get from here to 40% overall would mean that Latinos everywhere else voted for Perry at much higher rates than what we’re seeing in these districts. I’ve yet to see any credible evidence suggesting that might indeed be the case. Anyway, the bottom line is that the evidence we have implies Rick Perry’s actual level of support among Latinos is a fairly unremarkable 30% or so. I’ve shown you my numbers, so if you want to claim otherwise, you show me yours.

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One Comment

  1. Jason says:

    Charles,
    I agree Perry’s percentage of Latino votes may be under 40% as written in the story, it would be difficult to truly determine the actual total. The house districts you listed tend to have approximately an 80% Spanish surname. Actual Hispanic turnout would most likely be in the mid 60′s to mid 70′s, depending on which district we are looking at. Of the districts you listed about, the remaining 1/3 or so of the votes would be Anglo, for the most part (Valley region). Assuming their partisan trend held true, Perry would receive in the low 40′s in the above examples. (70% of the Anglo vote and 30% of the Latino vote=42%) What we see in the examples you list is an illistration of economics/political associations driving the partisan ratio–meaning the Anglo’s in those districts tend to be more Democratic than in other districts. Also, the districts you pointed out are concentraited with a Latino population, which works well for quick reference, but unfortunately doesn’t tell the full story. The turnout is pathetic in the cited districts. You could actually win a seat in the state house with 10,000 votes! My position is that you would see a substantially higher hispanic vote for Republicans in the Suburbs and Rural areas where Hispanics make up a large and growing percentage of the population. The number could very easily be in the upper 30′s and over 40 for a strong v. weak scenerio such as Abbot Radnofsky was (check those numbers). There is certainly what Craig Eiland once described to me as a brown wave coming, but Dems should be very, very cautious about the long term trajectory of that wave. History has shown us that swings occur within each ethnic over time and with a change in GOP priorities, this could certainly swing things the other way.

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