As always with big court cases, the first question is who benefits politically from the decision?
Still the only voter ID anyone should need
With a federal judge having declared Texas’ voter ID unconstitutional, Democrats and political experts on Friday predicted the surprise decision potentially could help Wendy Davis in the upcoming Nov. 4 general election.
Republicans blasted the decision but said they think it could help turn out even more GOP voters to help them win next month.
It could little matter: Republican State Attorney General Greg Abbott signaled he would ask an appeals court to keep the Voter ID law in effect for the election.
“The fact is, that the Republicans have made it harder for many people to vote … and this could motivate them to turn out,” said Joaquin Guerra, political director of the Texas Organizing Project that is helping encourage turnout for Democrats.
Even if it does, he and others said, the number of voters without ID who could turn out might be just a few thousand – a fraction of the estimate of just over 600,000 that critics had argued were affected by the Texas law. Advocates and political observers said that is because a large percentage of those people do not vote.
“It’s probably like attendance at an Astros game, pretty small, a few thousand,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor who follows voter turnout and the voter ID fight.
“The argument that this might help Republicans somehow doesn’t really hold water,” Jones said. “First, it means more Texans who don’t have ID will be able to vote – and those people are likely to vote Democratic, if they turn out. Second, this decision provides support for the Democrats’ argument that this law unfairly targeted Hispanics and African-Americans. It certainly doesn’t help Abbott with Hispanic voters.”
No question that this can and will fire people up on both sides, but the effect on the people that were always going to vote isn’t important. What matters is if this helps motivate the marginal voters to get to the polls. To the extent that Democrats have more marginal voters to reach out to, it’s good for them. To the extent that Republicans don’t need many of their marginal voters to participate to put things out of reach, it’s good for them. With everyone now talking about Davis’ latest TV ad, the one in which she accuses Greg Abbott of hypocrisy on matters of access to the courthouse and enforcing the Americans with Disabilities Act, it’s hard to say how much people will even be thinking about the voter ID ruling. There’s so much going on right now, who knows what might have an effect, and who could tell if it did?
Of course, what Judge Ramos had to say is far from the last word. So the next question is, will her ruling stand, for this election and after?
“It gets very tricky now that we’re so close to the election,” said Joseph Fishkin, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law.
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Abbott is likely not only to file an appeal of Ramos’ ruling but also to request a stay to prevent her decision from being applied to this election until the appeals court has a chance to consider it.
What’s unclear is whether the New Orleans appeals court or the U.S. Supreme Court will get involved in the dispute before the election.
The Supreme Court has “said they don’t like to change the rules right before an election,” Fishkin said.
Chad Dunn, one of the lawyers for the groups suing the state in the voter ID case, said on Friday he believes it’s unlikely the 5th Circuit or the Supreme Court will overturn Ramos’ ruling.
“It’s going to be striking if the 5th Circuit or the Supreme Court, so close to the election, says, ‘We’re going to allow this law to be in effect, even though a trial court has heard all this evidence,'” said Dunn, who represents the League of United Latin American Citizens and U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Dallas.
In her ruling, Ramos also indicated that she would issue an injunction preventing the photo ID requirement from being enforced during the upcoming election.
But Chris Gober, a political law attorney in Austin, said it’s likely the 5th Circuit will lift Ramos’ injunction once she files it, meaning voters would need to show the photo ID in November.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the 5th Circuit lifted the injunction due to the close proximity of the election,” Gober said.
Here’s the rest of what Chad Dunn had to say. Judge Ramos has made her injunction against voter ID official, so it’s on to the next steps from here. You know my opinion of the Fifth Circuit, but I have no idea how this might play out. The political effect may be bigger than any practical effect, but who knows? I’m going to celebrate the justice of Judge Ramos’ words and let the rest take care of itself. PDiddie has more.