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Precinct analysis: At Large #2

At Large #2 was one of two such races featuring an incumbent that will go to a runoff.


Dist  Robinson  Rivera    Dick   Davis   Burks
==============================================
A        3,715   1,679   3,982   3,586   1,281
B        5,283   1,243   1,649   3,405   4,335
C       14,736   2,571   6,379   5,446   2,002
D        6,008   1,644   1,632   4,285   7,131
E        5,247   2,596   7,431   6,012   1,549
F        2,650   1,270   1,512   2,238     920
G        8,492   1,517   7,163   8,440   1,895
H        3,788   3,760   1,393   1,735   1,264
I        2,837   3,578   1,273   1,556   1,226
J        1,918     910   1,150   1,481     586
K        5,676   1,553   1,904   3,596   2,995
					
A       26.08%  11.79%  27.96%  25.18%   8.99%
B       33.20%   7.81%  10.36%  21.39%  27.24%
C       47.33%   8.26%  20.49%  17.49%   6.43%
D       29.02%   7.94%   7.88%  20.70%  34.45%
E       22.98%  11.37%  32.54%  26.33%   6.78%
F       30.85%  14.78%  17.60%  26.05%  10.71%
G       30.87%   5.51%  26.04%  30.68%   6.89%
H       31.73%  31.49%  11.67%  14.53%  10.59%
I       27.10%  34.17%  12.16%  14.86%  11.71%
J       31.73%  15.05%  19.02%  24.50%   9.69%
K       36.10%   9.88%  12.11%  22.87%  19.05%
CM David Robinson

CM David Robinson

First-term CM David Robinson did all right in his first re-election bid, which was his third citywide race overall, but he didn’t exactly dominate anywhere. He did do reasonably well in Republican districts, and easily carried District C. He led the way in seven districts, including B, which is encouraging for his re-election prospects. The main source of concern is that none of the also-ran candidates have voter bases that would naturally or necessarily transfer to him. He received the HCDP endorsement (more on that later) and had $87K on hand in his 8 day report after showing strong reports earlier, so he ought to have the resources he needs to do voter outreach for the runoff. He’s going to have to work at it, as he’s not been a particularly high-profile Council member, and while he did run in and win a runoff against an African-American candidate in 2013, he did so in an environment that didn’t have a Mayoral race. Basically, Robinson has the flipside of Georgia Provost’s challenge: He can’t win without African-American voters. A couple of days ago, Controller candidate Chris Brown sent out an email that touted the endorsements of City Council members Jerry Davis, Dwight Boykins, and Larry Green. It would surely be a boon for his chances if these three Council members issued a similar endorsement for their At Large #2 colleague.

I’m still not sure what to make of Willie Davis. He not only finished behind former CM Andrew Burks in Districts B and D, he also finished behind Robinson there. He did all right in A, E, and G, but not as well as Eric Dick in A and E, and was a pinch behind Robinson in G. He certainly has room to grow in those districts, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll pick up the voters from other candidates, either. He has a Democratic primary voting history, but the HCDP endorsed Robinson; in other races with two Ds (District H and HISD II), the party gave dual endorsements. That primary voting history may dampen Republican support for him despite his status as the anti-HERO candidate; remember that the Republican establishment attacked Ben Hall during the first round. If he can execute the vaunted Pincer Strategy, he can win. As with Provost in AL1, his next finance report ought to tell the story.

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6 Comments

  1. Joshua ben bullard says:

    David Robinson gets an f rating,this guy has been awful,are you aware that the Houston chronicle has already reported that david Robinson has used the luxury suites at Toyota center more than any other freshman council.member in Houston history(he’s used the suites 6 times) and he’s flown around the world 4:times on the tax payers dime 4 times-dont believe me?check his Facebook profile its all there,oh and let’s not forget the city insiders he kept in the office refusing to give a local college grad an opportunity, he quickly retained Karen as his chief of staff,she used to work for the former mayor then she did 6 years as chief of staff for Wanda Adams,david Robinson never gave any new opportunities, he just got elected to spread money to Stephen Costello’s friends(their both “in the rebuild business)david robinson has misused his official office,lavished himself with gifts and done it all on tax payer money, please ,I am voting for Houston’s good friend Willie Davis not just because willie Davis is right for Houston,but because david Robinson can’t be trusted.author of Houston’s no smoking ordinance 2005-245 Joshua Ben bullard

  2. Mainstream says:

    Willie Davis was endorsed last night by the Harris County Republican Party Executive Committee, by a vote of about 60 or 70%, despite his past Democratic primary voting history. (Only about 35% of that group actually lives and votes in the City of Houston, interestingly.) He has told folks he plans to become a Republican. Davis’ current voter registration is at an apartment. He formerly used his church’s address as his voter registration residence, but had his mail forwarded to Baytown.

    I think this will be a close election, but that Davis has the edge, assuming he can put together an alliance of westside conservatives and some share of black voter support.

  3. Julain Deleon says:

    I suspect Robinson is returned to City Council for another term. He’s done a good job. Now that HERO is left for the new Mayor, lots of folks helping him get re-elected.

  4. Eric Dick says:

    Look closer at Robinson’s finance report. If I remember correctly he has a large amount of expenses that are incurred but not yet paid.

  5. If i had known, I would have run in this race.