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Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Last but not least, At Large #5:


Dist  Batteau  Christie  Nassif   Moses
=======================================
A       1,034     8,302   1,895   2,876
B       2,784     3,157   2,374   6,849
C       1,782    13,555  10,866   4,592
D       5,108     4,098   3,138   7,231
E       1,247    15,479   2,664   3,355
F         811     3,815   1,143   2,545
G       1,079    20,058   4,567   3,203
H       1,349     3,895   2,445   3,502
I       1,372     3,531   1,678   3,062
J         616     2,744     988   1,545
K       2,149     4,891   2,946   5,259
				
A       7.33%   58.85%   13.43%  20.39%
B      18.36%   20.82%   15.66%  45.17%
C       5.79%   44.02%   35.28%  14.91%
D      26.09%   20.93%   16.03%  36.94%
E       5.48%   68.05%   11.71%  14.75%
F       9.75%   45.89%   13.75%  30.61%
G       3.73%   69.39%   15.80%  11.08%
H      12.05%   34.80%   21.85%  31.29%
I      14.23%   36.62%   17.40%  31.75%
J      10.45%   46.56%   16.77%  26.22%
K      14.10%   32.08%   19.32%  34.50%
Jack Christie

Jack Christie

This is not Jack Christie’s first runoff. It’s his third, in fact: He lost narrowly to then-CM Jolanda Jones in 2009, the defeated her somewhat less narrowly in 2011. He won without a runoff in 2013, and is now back in a familiar position. A review of the precinct data from the two previous runoffs is instructive. The comparison between the two isn’t exact due to the Council redistricting of 2011, but the basics are the same: Christie was clobbered in the African-American parts of town, but did well enough everywhere else. In 2009, the higher overall turnout from the Mayoral runoff was enough to sink his ship by making the margins he had to overcome in B and D that much greater, but the lower turnout of 2011 plus his improved performance in other parts of the city were enough to give him the win. We will be in a turnout environment more like 2009 than 2011 this year, and with Sylvester Turner running that could well boost his opponent and give him problems as was the case in 2009, but this time he’s running against a little-known first-time candidate and not a high-profile incumbent, which ought to work to his benefit. I surely expect a higher undervote rate this year than in 2011 when the AL5 runoff was the main event. I make Christie the favorite, but his re-election is far from assured.

As for Sharon Moses, I’m still getting to know who she is. She sent out a campaign email earlier in the week, which I have pasted beneath the fold. Her challenge and her path to victory are basically the same as they are for Georgia Provost, except that 1) her opponent is a two-term incumbent; 2) her opponent is fairly moderate and has a history of winning crossover support; and 3) she herself is less known than Provost is. Moreover, while Provost has picked up all the Dem-friendly runoff endorsements that I have seen so far, Moses has been a bit less successful in that endeavor. Both Provost and Moses were endorsed by the HCDP and by the Planned Parenthood Gulf Coast Action Fund, but only Provost was endorsed by the Houston GLBT Political Caucus. I can see scenarios where they both get elected and where they both lose, but if only one of them wins I’d bet money it’s Provost and not Moses.

As for Philippe Nassif, it was a good effort by another first-time candidate, but the district view shows that he still had a ways to go. He did well in the friendly confines of District C, though not well enough to outdo Christie, but did not make enough of an impression elsewhere. If he wants to run again in 2019 – and he should, unless he gets elected to something else between now and then or moves to another city – my advice would be to stay engaged seek out opportunities to get his name out there. Take a more prominent and visible role in the 2016 and 2018 elections. Write some op-eds for the Chronicle. Find a cause and throw yourself into it. There are far more ultimately successful candidates who lost their first race (or races) than there are instant winners. Stay engaged, keep yourself out there, and you’ll enter 2019 more prepared than most. I hope to see you on my ballot again.

 

Hello Fellow Houstonians,

The run-off election is at hand and it’s time to elect a candidate for Houston City Council At-Large, Position 5 who will Keep HOUSTON-STRONG! My name is Sharon Moses.  I am that candidate and I am asking for your vote!

Who Am I?
I am an attorney and a native Houstonian who has a passion for uplifting people, building strong relationships and working towards common goals.  I received my Doctor of Jurisprudence degree from Thurgood Marshall School of Law and my Masters in Transportation Planning and Management from Texas Southern
University.

What Are My Qualifications?

Although this is my first time running for office, I am no stranger to government!  I have served as an Agenda Director and Policy Researcher under the leadership of former City Council Member Ada Edwards, District D.  While there, I advised the Council Member on legislative matters in the council agenda and served as
the point person for several committees, including the flooding and drainage committee, which housed a steering committee and a stakeholders committee. For the past nine years, I have worked diligently for the City of Houston by helping to educate
the public regarding sustainability concerns, civic matters, recycling and solid waste issues. Learn More

What Is My Platform?
The top items on my agenda are Public Safety, Transportation/Infrastructure, Quality of Life, Economic Vitality, Premature Births, Senior Assistance, Transparency and Accountability, Education, Affordable Housing, Sustainability, and Eliminating Illegal Dumping. Learn More

Why Should You Vote For Me?
My education, background, training and experience within the community uniquely qualifies me to serve as your City Council Member.  My training in Transportation will assist with sorting through the city’s transportation and infrastructure concerns, while my knowledge of the legal system and legalese will help alleviate some of the complexities that council leaders deal with on a day-to-day basis. Serving as a City employee in community outreach has made me much more aware of the needs of the community.  I am approachable and not opposed to hearing your voice.  No need for formalities here.  I welcome your insight on matters and
believe it takes input from the community to get the job done.

Endorsements:
Ada Edwards, Former City Council Member
Carroll G. Robinson, Former City Council Member
Church of God in Christ (COGIC)
Baptist Ministers Association of Houston and Vicinity (BMAHV)
Harris County Democrats
Kingwood Area Democrats

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5 Comments

  1. Nassif should be in this runoff.

    Some said Kubosh ‘convinced’ batteau to run in 5

  2. Burt Levine says:

    JM-Why do you go to such efforts to be wrong?

  3. Burt,

    I’m still waiting for Michael Kubosh to put together a platform, preferably a platform where Paul doesn’t do all the thinking and hand holding.

    I like how batteau was originally in 3, but changed to 4.

    Gee golly…

  4. Joseph Marty says:

    At Large #5 was perhaps the worst race to cast a vote for any of the candidate. Christie with his belief that vaccines don’t work, or whatever reasons he has against them. An unknown candidate in Moses.

    How many times and different corny slogans can Batteau run with? It seems that he has ran during every election over the last few years, and his slogans and posters pop up in weird places throughout the city, & for that reason I decided to finally vote for him. Maybe he is up to something because he gave Nassif a run for his money for the last place. The real problem with Nassif is that he needed to a beating, like MMA fighter Ronda Rousey needed a beating, to make him humble. You can’t run for office for the very first time and send your staff to advocate in your behalf. It was interesting to see Nassif only show up at major publicized events, but when it came to community meetings, like civic club meetings, his staff were the ones who were advocating for him. I think about Amanda Edwards, who has her staff, but has always been the one to show up to both major and small meetings. Perhaps Nassif needed a beating to make him humble or perhaps he just needs to learn the real art of grassroots. I was also very skeptical of his campaign finance report and how much money he was spending versus how much he claimed he was receiving. His spending patterns was very concerning, & when you compare them to Amanda Edwards or Tom McClasan, the other 2 new young faces to Houston politics, this should have automatically raised a red flag for anyone wanting to cast a vote or even supporting him.

  5. Mainstream says:

    I met Nassif on the campaign trail, and did not find him distant or arrogant, maybe a tad shy. His campaign workers canvassed my neighborhood one Saturday morning, so I don’t fault his campaigning. Sad to say, but his poor vote result has much to do with his name, which to many voters sounds “unAmerican”, “Muslim”, “foreign”, “other”, “Arab”, or whatever. I don’t know if he ever uses a nickname, but even a ballot name “Phil Nassif” would sound more familiar to voters than “Phillipe Nassif.” I am reminded of Aloyisius Huang, who became Al Hoang, Cathy Heramsichuk who became Cathy Cochran, and many others who have filed for office with names less exotic than their friends would recognize. The award for the worst decision on a ballot name this cycle goes to “John Christian Bullit LaRue” who might have gotten a few more votes with the shorter “John LaRue.”

    There are exceptions. Dale Gorczynski comes to mind, but I don’t know that he has had a more simply named opponent in a recent primary.

    Longtime observers will remember the 2008 Democrat judicial sweep in Harris County when only a few Democrats lost, and they all had names which Bubba would not recognize: Goodwill Pierre and a Mahendru come to mind.

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