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Two more primary poll results

First we have one from KUHF, though it’s just for the GOP race.

Not Ted Cruz

Not Ted Cruz

One week before Super Tuesday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 14-point lead in the Lone Star State, according to a poll released Wednesday by Houston Public Media and the University of Houston Hobby Center for Public Policy.

It suggests a decisive home state win for Cruz’s wavering campaign, though not the wide margin that experts had long said Cruz should expect. Still, it’s a wider lead than reported in another statewide poll released Tuesday.

The new poll, which contacted 415 likely Republican voters in Texas by phone, shows Cruz with 34.5 percent of the vote, Donald Trump with 20 and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with eight. Undecided voters made up 19 percent in the poll. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

That means that Cruz will likely face off with Trump district-by-district. The Texas primary awards delegates to any candidates with more than 20 percent of votes in each of the state’s 31 Senate districts.

Here’s KUHF’s story, and their results are here. Not sure why you wouldn’t go ahead and do the Dem side as well, but I wasn’t the pollster and no one asked me. I suppose with the debate at UH, there was a branding opportunity. Trail Blazers has more.

Meanwhile, the Emerson College Polling Society also weighs in.

With less than a week until the Texas GOP presidential primary, Senator Ted Cruz is edging out his two chief rivals, with Cruz having 29% of the vote followed by Donald Trump at 28% and Marco Rubio at 25%, according to an Emerson College tracking poll released today. Ohio’s John Kasich is at 9%, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson comes in fifth, with 4%.

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton holds a solid lead, 56% to 40%, over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. It appears the former Secretary of State is well positioned to notch a decisive win in the delegate-rich Lone Star State, which ranks third−behind California and New York−in the number of delegates up for grabs (252).

Clinton does well with women, who prefer her 62% to 36% over Sanders, and she holds her own with men, who favor her 48% to 46%. Although Sanders has a massive lead, 81% to 18%, among voters ages 18-34, Clinton dominates in the other age categories, holding a 73-point advantage among voters 55-74 and a 76-point edge with those 75 and over.

Of the three GOP leaders, Rubio is seen most positively, with 64% of likely GOP primary voters rating him favorably compared to 29% who view him unfavorably. Cruz’s rating is 56% favorable to 41% unfavorable. Of all the GOP candidates, Trump is the only one under water with a 45% favorable to 50% unfavorable opinion. Clinton (79% favorable to 20% unfavorable) and Sanders (68% to 27%) are both well regarded by likely Democratic primary voters.

Their full dataset is here, in Excel format. One thing I observed about the KUHF result – I did not take the time to browse through the ECPS file – was that a significant number of respondents had already voted. I suppose if you’re going to do a poll this late in the day, that is to be expected. Not sure if that will skew the result or make it more accurate – I could see an argument either way. As it happens, I got called to take a Monmouth poll last night, so we may yet see another result before Tuesday. Thanks to Paradise in Hell for the link.

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2 Comments

  1. Check out the new SurveyUSA Poll #22696. More bad news for Cruz in Texas. Cruz and Trump are tied at 32% among likely and actual GOP primary voters.

  2. […] only by a little. Full poll results are here, and you can see more about the other polls mentioned here and here. For what it’s worth, this poll sampled more Rs than Ds, 620 to 411, but that […]