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Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout?


Dist     Cruz   Trump   Rubio    Cruz%  Trump%  Rubio%
======================================================
126     9,206   5,012   3,604   46.45%  25.29%  18.18%
127    13,475   6,585   4,579   49.53%  24.20%  16.83%
128    10,789   5,618   2,166   54.41%  28.33%  10.92%
129    10,906   5,812   4,288   46.71%  24.89%  18.37%
130    16,313   7,227   4,674   53.40%  23.66%  15.30%
131     1,409     813     573   44.62%  25.74%  18.14%
132     8,936   4,403   2,931   50.17%  24.72%  16.46%
133    11,465   7,630   8,696   35.58%  23.68%  26.99%
134     8,702   6,534   9,195   29.84%  22.40%  31.53%
135     8,276   4,020   2,814   50.38%  24.47%  17.13%
137     1,679   1,394     945   37.01%  30.73%  20.83%
138     7,380   3,794   2,862   47.84%  24.59%  18.55%
139     2,981   1,464   1,096   48.28%  23.71%  17.75%
140     1,372     727     415   51.19%  27.13%  15.49%
141     1,061     610     263   50.40%  28.98%  12.49%
142     2,287   1,107     827   49.86%  24.13%  18.03%
143     1,974     966     608   51.76%  25.33%  15.94%
144     2,471   1,334     615   51.84%  27.98%  12.90%
145     2,601   1,333   1,023   47.98%  24.59%  18.87%
146     2,293   1,287   1,338   40.74%  22.87%  23.77%
147     2,039   1,406   1,659   34.39%  23.71%  27.98%
148     3,693   2,219   2,434   39.38%  23.66%  25.96%
149     3,422   2,053   1,524   43.97%  26.38%  19.58%
150    13,090   6,513   4,115   50.51%  25.13%  15.88%

As was the case with yesterday’s analysis, the percentages don’t sum to 100 because of the other candidates, whose numbers are now shown. There’s a lot more of them here, and their collective numbers are larger, but the top three took at least 80% of the vote in all districts, in many cases more than 90%. I briefly thought about including John Kasich’s numbers, but I quickly regained my senses.

The first thing that strikes me is how consistent Donald Trump’s numbers were. With the exception of HD137, he’s in a tight band between 22% and 29%, and even in 137 he’s only just above 30%. He did not win any districts, coming closest in HD134 where Ted Cruz had his weakest showing, but Marco Rubio did. Three cheers for the Establishment, I guess. Cruz won a majority in eight districts. That includes three of the five predominantly Latino districts, though how many Latinos actually voted in the GOP primary is not something I can answer from this data.

I don’t know that I have any deep insights here. 2012 and 2008 were such different years, with 2008 also having different district boundaries, that it’s hard to make meaningful comparisons. The main thing I think we should all take away is that when races are hot enough, more voting may take place on Election Day than one might normally expect. Hopefully, that will inform the decisions about what precinct locations and how many voting machines to have in the future.

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One Comment

  1. brad says:

    My ultra red precinct (#309) surprisingly had a strong showing for Rubio. Cruz still polled tops in my precinct, but below Harris County and statewide #s. My precinct voted for Trump below the county-wide and statewide #s for Trump, but still 1 in 6 republican voters are jackasses in my precinct and voted for Trump. Alas I hoped Kasich would do better, but then I think that with every primary/caucus. Hope Kasich take Ohio and starts 4th of July fireworks early in June in Cleveland at a contested convention.

    My vote went to the Vermonter with the other meager Dem vote in my precinct which saw 93% of voters go to the Rep table to participate in the circus.