How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout?
Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio%
======================================================
126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18%
127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83%
128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92%
129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37%
130 16,313 7,227 4,674 53.40% 23.66% 15.30%
131 1,409 813 573 44.62% 25.74% 18.14%
132 8,936 4,403 2,931 50.17% 24.72% 16.46%
133 11,465 7,630 8,696 35.58% 23.68% 26.99%
134 8,702 6,534 9,195 29.84% 22.40% 31.53%
135 8,276 4,020 2,814 50.38% 24.47% 17.13%
137 1,679 1,394 945 37.01% 30.73% 20.83%
138 7,380 3,794 2,862 47.84% 24.59% 18.55%
139 2,981 1,464 1,096 48.28% 23.71% 17.75%
140 1,372 727 415 51.19% 27.13% 15.49%
141 1,061 610 263 50.40% 28.98% 12.49%
142 2,287 1,107 827 49.86% 24.13% 18.03%
143 1,974 966 608 51.76% 25.33% 15.94%
144 2,471 1,334 615 51.84% 27.98% 12.90%
145 2,601 1,333 1,023 47.98% 24.59% 18.87%
146 2,293 1,287 1,338 40.74% 22.87% 23.77%
147 2,039 1,406 1,659 34.39% 23.71% 27.98%
148 3,693 2,219 2,434 39.38% 23.66% 25.96%
149 3,422 2,053 1,524 43.97% 26.38% 19.58%
150 13,090 6,513 4,115 50.51% 25.13% 15.88%
As was the case with yesterday’s analysis, the percentages don’t sum to 100 because of the other candidates, whose numbers are now shown. There’s a lot more of them here, and their collective numbers are larger, but the top three took at least 80% of the vote in all districts, in many cases more than 90%. I briefly thought about including John Kasich’s numbers, but I quickly regained my senses.
The first thing that strikes me is how consistent Donald Trump’s numbers were. With the exception of HD137, he’s in a tight band between 22% and 29%, and even in 137 he’s only just above 30%. He did not win any districts, coming closest in HD134 where Ted Cruz had his weakest showing, but Marco Rubio did. Three cheers for the Establishment, I guess. Cruz won a majority in eight districts. That includes three of the five predominantly Latino districts, though how many Latinos actually voted in the GOP primary is not something I can answer from this data.
I don’t know that I have any deep insights here. 2012 and 2008 were such different years, with 2008 also having different district boundaries, that it’s hard to make meaningful comparisons. The main thing I think we should all take away is that when races are hot enough, more voting may take place on Election Day than one might normally expect. Hopefully, that will inform the decisions about what precinct locations and how many voting machines to have in the future.
My ultra red precinct (#309) surprisingly had a strong showing for Rubio. Cruz still polled tops in my precinct, but below Harris County and statewide #s. My precinct voted for Trump below the county-wide and statewide #s for Trump, but still 1 in 6 republican voters are jackasses in my precinct and voted for Trump. Alas I hoped Kasich would do better, but then I think that with every primary/caucus. Hope Kasich take Ohio and starts 4th of July fireworks early in June in Cleveland at a contested convention.
My vote went to the Vermonter with the other meager Dem vote in my precinct which saw 93% of voters go to the Rep table to participate in the circus.