This time with input from trained professionals.
Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, it could help Democrats down the ballot.
“Democrats know they have no choice but to turn out and vote,” said Deborah Peoples, who heads the Tarrant County Democratic Party. “The more caustic and divisive that Trump’s message becomes — and he has insulted every group in America — the more it energizes people to turn out and do something.
“And if Republicans decide to stay home and Democrats decide not to stay home, it could be a good thing for us in Tarrant County.”
Either of those options could affect candidates farther down the ballot, from state representatives to constables, who already see fewer votes than candidates at the top of the ballot.
Local Republicans say they hope Democrats don’t get their hopes too high over the possibilities if Trump is the GOP presidential nominee.
“I think there will definitely be a Trump effect,” said Jennifer Hall, who heads the Tarrant County Republican Party. “Trump affected almost every vote in the primary — people either came out to vote for him or against him.
“But we are hearing from a number of Democrats who say if Trump is our nominee, they will vote for him,” she said. “They say they like him better than Hillary [Clinton] or Bernie [Sanders].”
[…]
“County and city races may be hardest hit, along with judicial races,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, an associate professor of political science at the University of Houston. “Without a steady Republican turnout, the usual higher turnout in a presidential election will bring more Democrats and may cost the party some local seats.
“When given a reason, Democrats do turn out in big numbers, especially in presidential elections,” he said. “Trump’s bombastic political swagger may encourage less frequent Democrats to get to the polls and spike Democratic numbers around the area.”
Not only that, but GOP candidates in general might be tainted for some voters.
“The image of Republican candidates in down-ballot races would be tarnished in the eyes of some regular Republican voters due to their indirect association with Trump as their party’s presidential standard bearer,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.
“Trump’s anti-Latino rhetoric would be utilized by Democrats to ramp up Latino turnout and to drive a wedge between Latinos and the Republican Party,” he said. “Since Latinos in Texas tend to lean Democratic, higher Latino turnout alone will benefit Democrats, let alone if formerly Republican leaning Latinos switch their support to Democratic candidates as a result of Trump’s candidacy.”
We’ve discussed this before, and I’ll say once again that the way to move away from pure speculation and into slightly better-informed speculation is to get some polling data. Downballot races are where any effects will be felt, but a macro view of the statewide mood will help us gauge what those effects might be. Harris County, with its knife-edge balance these last two Presidential years, could definitely look a lot different after November. As for Tarrant County, it’s been an amazingly accurate mirror of statewide Presidential results over the past few cycles:
Year Tarrant R Texas R Tarrant D Texas D
============================================
2012 57.12% 57.17% 41.43% 41.38%
2008 55.43% 55.45% 43.73% 43.68%
2004 62.39% 61.09% 37.01% 38.22%
It will be interesting to see if that holds again this year. Maybe someone can just do a poll of Tarrant Count as a proxy for the state as a whole. We don’t have statewide poll numbers yet, but as do know that Latinos are extra engaged this year, that they really hate Donald Trump, and thanks to shift in Latino preferences, Harris County is more Democratic than ever. I’ll have more on that latter link tomorrow, but in the meantime what we do know points in one direction. The question is how far in that direction it points.
Excellent post. Stuff like this is why I still come here
Just heard the trump speech on foreign policy. You guys are toast. 🙂 Kuff you need to come on over to the Republican side. We could use your persuasive skills on conservative/populist issues.
😉
“Trump’s anti-Latino rhetoric ….”
Mark. P. Jones
Maybe Mark heard something I have not. Desiring to enforce our immigration law and deport illegal aliens, while at the same time making our border less porous isn’t “anti-Latino.”
In fact, deporting illegal aliens actually helps Latino Americans, just like it helps every other American, by increasing wages for Americans, especially Americans at the bottom end of the pay scale, which is a key Democratic platform. Get rid of the illegals who will work cheaper and harder than citizens, and employers will have to hire Americans, and at higher wages.
You’d think all the folks Reagan legalized in ’86 and their dependents would know this first hand, having been on both sides of the issue.