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We could be #3!

In a decade or so! If current trends hold.

Chicago, the only city among the nation’s 20 largest to see population loss in 2015, could be overtaken in a decade by Houston as the third-most-populous city if the trend continues, experts said.

The city of Chicago lost about 2,890 residents between 2014 and 2015, bringing the city’s population down to 2,720,546, according to newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Numbers made available in March showed the greater Chicago area, which includes the city and suburbs and extends into Wisconsin and Indiana, lost an estimated 6,263 residents — the greatest loss of any metropolitan area in the country.

[…]

The nation’s fourth-most-populated city, Houston, saw the second-largest increase among major cities, gaining 40,032 residents between 2014 and 2015. While Houston’s population, about 2.3 million, is still about 424,000 residents behind Chicago, experts say that if the trends continue, Houston could eclipse Chicago’s population in about 10 years.

“That’s the trend,” said Rob Paral, a Chicago-based demographer. “Even if Chicago stays fairly steady for a period, Houston would pass us up in about 10 years. It’s not inconceivable.”

But William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution who analyzes census data, said such 10-year projections are “crystal ball kinds of predictions,” as they cannot account for economic shifts. While Texas’ economy is thriving as a result of the oil and gas industries right now, there have been periods of volatility, he said.

The same could be said for Chicago, as it’s only the first year in several that the city’s population has dropped.

“It’s certainly possible,” Frey said, when asked about the likelihood of Houston becoming the country’s third-largest city. “If you project those (populations) out, then it’ll be close to 10 years before there’s a convergence. But that’s not likely to be the case.”

I would have to agree that projecting this out ten years is a dicey proposition. Chicago’s population loss is a recent thing, and as Houston Tomorrow reminds us, it wasn’t long ago that the city of Houston’s share in the region’s growth was much smaller. Things could look very different in a few years’ time, is what I’m saying. Be that as it may, it’s kind of amusing watching Chicago freak out a little about this. May as well enjoy it while we can. The Urban Edge blog has more.

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3 Comments

  1. Bill Daniels says:

    Chicago is losing population in no small part because they can’t seem to stop killing each other. High taxes, over regulated, dangerous…..not really motivating me to move there.

  2. Bill Daniels says:

    I just don’t understand why we are gaining population. Didn’t the HERO get repealed? Who would want to move to such a bigoted city?

  3. Joel says:

    bigots.

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