Just another item to add to the list of reasons why Donald Trump is and has been bad news for Texas Republicans.
Pete Gallego
Voters in the district, which is the largest Congressional district in the country which is not its own state, stretching from northwest Bexar County to El Paso, have an ‘overwhelmingly negative’ view of Trump, with 37% viewing the likely Republican candidate favorably and 58% viewing Trump unfavorably.
Because of that, the district is 45% to 40% for Hillary Clinton, despite the fact that Republican Greg Abbott won the district big over Democrat Wendy Davis in 2014.
Gallego has 45%, Hurd 37%, with Libertarian Ruben Corvalan with 4% and 18% still undecided.
The district is about even in the percentage of voters who self-identify as Republcian and those who consider themselves Democrats.
Because of that closely matched makeup, the district has essentially changed hands in every election for the past decade.
Many Republicans are concerned that Trump at the head of the ticket will erode the party’s growth among Hispanics and will cost it down ballot races.
You can see the Gallego campaign email with a smidgeon of polling memo here. Many disclaimers apply: It’s early, it’s one poll, it’s an internal poll, no crosstabs, etc etc etc. All true, but also all consistent with the statewide polling numbers we have seen so far, as well as the national trends. (See, for example, Latino Decisions’ numbers from Monday, via Daily Kos.) Remember, every Republican other than Nathan Hecht carried CD23 in 2012, when Gallego was elected. Despite a huge tailwind in 2014, Hurd won with less than 50%. If Hillary Clinton goes on to carry CD23, Hurd is almost certainly toast. And if Hillary Clinton is trailing in Texas by less than ten points, she’s almost certainly leading in CD23. It’s just math, and unless things change, that math looks a lot better right now for Gallego than it does for Hurd.
This will be a flip flop district until redistricting. It has been since the courts ruled it unconstitutional when Henry Bonilla was in office. The trump people don’t care about the long term Hispanic vote, just 2016. A study showed Romney would have received the same electoral votes had he received 51% of the Hispanic vote in every state instead of the 27% he actually received. Obviously this is due to concentration in southwestern states. He is banking on moderate Dems in Pennsylvania and Ohio and realizes Hurd is toast.
If there’s bad news, it’s that if Hillary Clinton is winning Texas she’s probably better than +5 in CD-23.
Hurd can hold onto this district, even with headwinds. He is a strong candidate, with national security background at a time when those issues often pop into the news.
But Trump keeps talking about building a wall. Don’t you think that will sour independent Dems in 23? And Hurd most likely doesn’t have the cash to outreach the district if he is willing to disagree with his party nominee. I guess we don’t have too long to see.
*independent Hispanics (not Dems)