Here’s poll #3 for Texas.
Most national presidential polls have put Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in front of GOP nominee Donald Trump by as much as 15 percentage points. But the latest KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll shows that the Lone Star State is holding onto its red reputation.
Data released on Thursday has 46 percent of likely voters across Texas casting their ballots for the divisive Republican candidate, if the election were held today. That overshadows Clinton by 11 points who has 35 percent support. Of those surveyed, nearly 60 percent have a negative opinion of Trump while nearly 37 percent have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” opinion of the New York real estate mogul.
Clinton is viewed “very unfavorably” or “somewhat unfavorably” by more than 66 percent of surveyed Texans. Clinton was found to be “somewhat favorable” or “very favorable” by 31 percent of surveyed Texans. “Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people simply don’t trust her,” stated CBS News contributor and former “Face the Nation” moderator Bob Schieffer last month.
The results were nearly the opposite among Hispanics, with Clinton getting almost 48 percent of the Latino vote in Texas over Trump’s 32 percent.
[…]
Poll numbers were greatly in favor of Clinton when it came strictly to African American voters. More than 71 percent of blacks across the Lone Star State said that they would vote Clinton, while Trump only received about 13 percentage points among the minority group. Voters of other races also favored Clinton by just about three percentage points.
There’s some demographic breakdown at the link above, but it’s limited, and you don’t know what the subsample sizes are, so beware of any broad conclusions. That said, the most interesting figure is the one for white voters, which has Trump leading 50.73% to 31.46%. That’s probably 25 points lower than what Romney got among white voters in 2012, and a seven or eight point improvement by Clinton over Obama. Again, not to make a big deal about one subgroup, but do note that from September on, the worst showing Mitt Romney had in any Texas poll was 52%. Clinton’s 35% puts her three to six points behind Obama for that set of polls, but Trump is six to twelve points behind Romney. No matter how you loom at it, this continues to be a very different race than 2012 was.
Anyway. PPP will be polling Texas shortly, so we’ll get another post-convention result to see where we stand.
That poll also would overstate Trump’s Hispanic and African-American appeal. Based on everything else we know, I do not doubt that Trump still leads here, but I’d guess it’s about five points.
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