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UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 36

More polling locally.

Hillary Clinton

A new survey released Thursday by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic challengers for county wide office rising sharply against Republican incumbents.

It also showed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a seven-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, which Hobby research associate and poll author Bob Stein called “the biggest lead I’ve ever seen a Democratic presidential candidate have in the 37 years I’ve been polling in Houston.”

Barack Obama beat Republicans John McCain by 1.6 percent in 2008, and Mitt Romney by less than 1 percent in 2012.

“The big takeaway here is the Democratic surge,” Stein said.

The poll, a telephone survey of 400 registered Harris County voters, showed Democratic challenger Kim Ogg ahead of incumbent Republican Devon Anderson by seven points, 40 percent to 33 percent. A similar survey released by UH in September showed Ogg and Anderson in a virtual tie, 29 to 30 percent.

The new poll has a margin of error of plus- or minus 4.5 percent.

The poll also showed Ed Gonzalez, the Democratic candidate for Harris County sheriff, in a virtual tie with Republican incumbent Ron Hickman. The UH poll last month showed Hickman six points ahead.

Stein, who also teaches political science at Rice University, cautioned that the wording on the two polls was not identical, making direct comparisons difficult.

Here is the new poll data. Another reason why it’s a bit dicey to compare this poll to the one from September is that they classified the voters differently. In September, we had Registered Voters, Likely Voters, and Extremely Likely Voters. Clinton led Trump 43-34 among Likely Voters, but only 43-39 among Extremely Likely Voters. In this month’s poll, we have Very Likely To Vote and Certain To Vote, with Clinton leading 46-34 (!) among the Certain To Vote cohort, but trailing (!!) 43-33 among the Likely To Vote crowd. Prof. Stein suggests in the article that there’s an enthusiasm gap that favors the Democrats and accounts for this difference. Putting that aside and just focusing on the topline result, if Hillary Clinton is really leading in Harris County by seven points, not only will this almost certainly portend a complete Democratic sweep, it also adds credence to the ever-closer statewide margins, and to my mind also very likely presages a blue Fort Bend.

As for the Sheriff and DA races, I’ll say what I said in September, which is that they will almost certainly be determined by the Presidential race. Both Devon Anderson and Kim Ogg have money to spend on TV advertising, which may move the needle a bit one way or the other, but I for one haven’t seen much on the air so far, just a couple of Ogg spots from a week or so ago. I’d love to see at least one more poll from a different source, just as a check in case this is an outlier, but for now this is what we have. Early in-person voting begins Monday, and I know that a bunch of mail ballots have already been returned. This is going to be a busy couple of weeks. PDiddie and the Press have more.

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17 Comments

  1. Neither Here Nor There says:

    The higher the number of Republicans that vote for Trump, here and elsewhere, the better the argument that the Republicans are supporters of hate, racism, and bigotry.

    One could argue that they are just stupid, but that is a harder line for the average person to swallow. Not to many stupid tests that one could give them that they would take willingly.

    One could also argue that they are unpatriotic Americans, but again argument number one is easier to sell. After all for them it is party over country.

  2. brad moore says:

    I bet all the GOP judges in Harris County that are about to get bounced out of office are wishing that judicial races were non-partisan at this time.

    Time to get rid of straight party ballot voting. Or it is time for the GOP to get rid of their bigoted, willfully ignorant, racist, no-nothing, conspiracy loving GOP primary voters who can vote for such a colossal jerk as their party’s leader that it drags down their entire slate of pragmatic and reasonable elected officials .

  3. Paul kubosh says:

    The new moral majority speaks.

  4. brad moore says:

    While the underbelly slithers along dragging the GOP into the dirt.

  5. Bill Daniels says:

    @Brad:

    Let’s just say, ffor the purposes of argument, that Jeb! had won the (R) primary. Would you say the same thing?

  6. Neither Here Nor There says:

    I don’t about Brad, but I would be supporting Jeb Bush. However, Trump has shown how racist and bigoted the Republican Party has become.

    What is this moral majority bs, anyhow? White men feel like they ain’t getting a fair shake? They don’t like the label of racist, don’t say racist things, “The United States is full of white rapists and white drug dealers, but I imagine that some of them are good.” White men can’t stand that a Black Man is the president of the United States? They can’t live with the fact that a woman could be president of the United States. White men feel that women can’t choose what is best for them, they have to get a man’s permission.” What is this moral majority nonsense? Explain I don’t understand. Is it just another dog whistle for racism and bigotry?

  7. Neither Here Nor There says:

    For the record, I don’t believe the nonsense that I posted and is just baffling as heck that so many people do.

    Paul do you think President Obama was born in the United States?

    Paul do you think that Michelle Obama is transgender and the Obama’s kidnapped the two girls?

    Paul did you believe that Obama was going to take away our guns?

    Paul why do you hate Hillary so much, that you are willing to support a pervert who admitted that he sexually assaults women? A pervert who says that he will be dating a 10 year old in 10 years. A pervert that says he would date his own daughter but for? A person who has filed six bankruptcies which I consider legal thievery? A so called business man who lost one billion dollars in one year. A person who was saved because of his father’s death and his control of 200 million dollars?

  8. Bill Daniels says:

    @Neither:

    16 years of Bush and Obama are the country’s long burning Reichstag fire. People have had enough and want change. Heck, even the rank and file Dems came close to nominating a burnt out socialist. They want something other than the establishment as well.

    Trump took up the mantle of populism, and the people have finally concluded that the Iraq War was a debacle that shouldn’t have happened. The people have finally concluded that NAFTA is bad for them. Too bad the people didn’t wake up to these things when Perot and Ron Paul were running, but they are aware of them now. The people are pitchfork and torch mad, and rightfully so. Trump is evidence of that. Bernie, but for the DNC sand bag, might very well have been other evidence of that.

  9. Brad says:

    Bill,

    For a number of years there has been catering by the GOP to the tin foil hat wing of the GOP base for electoral purposes. And fanning the flames of hatred for votes. Now it is biting them on the ass. And that behind chewing is not going to go away soon.

    A Bush vs Clinton match up,would be a much more policy laden discussion, but that significant extremist Tea Party low/no information unintelligibly angry voter in the GOP base would still be there.

    Sanders a burnt out socialist…ha, you are funny. Sanders would’ve run circles around Your party’s leader.

  10. […] Brad on UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 36 […]

  11. Bill Daniels says:

    Brad:

    The Pubs put up a “maverick” war hero (or not, depending on who you listen to, then put up the most milquetoast candidate, probably ever, Romney, and lost with both. I can see how McCain lost, because people wanted something different, and really thought a clean, articulate community organizer could do all things for all people, not the least of which was getting the US out of the twin quagmires of Afghanistan and Iraq….his signature promise, by the way.

    You say the GOP are hateful people. How did it work out when they nominated Romney? He didn’t hate anyone. Heck, the only dirt they could come up for him is Bain Capital and that he put his dog on the roof of the car in a carrier, and that one time in high school when he was mean. Romney didn’t really support any issues Trump has brought to light. He wasn’t a big meanie. And he lost, bigly.

  12. Neither Here Nor There says:

    Bill Romney may have been a Clark Kent, but when they have to pander to the haters in the Republican Party what is one to believe? He is really a good guy or he going out there to do all the crazy things that the haters in the Republican party truly believe in and he claimed he believed in?

    I really want someone to raise the taxes on the very rich and to use money to educate and use the money to create jobs and opportunity for Americans. I would prefer that students not have to pay loans at 10% interest, and college tuition has gotten out of hand.

    Other than Ronald Reagan who did lower taxes for the middle class everything else that the Republicans have done is to lower for the one percent at the expense of everyone else. Trickle down does not work!

    I would prefer that they would make e-verify mandatory for everyone and it could be made much easier with national IDs, but guess who is against them? Well actually that is something the far right and far left both oppose.

  13. Ross says:

    McCain lost the moment he chose Palin as his running mate. No one wanted her, and her utterly empty head, to be next in line for the Presidency. I have friends who had voted Republican for decades who either voted for Obama, or didn’t vote, simply due to Palin.

  14. Paul Kubosh says:

    Neither,

    You make nasty statements (that I have not made) and attribute them to me. You have made my point you are what you hate “the new moral majoirty”.

  15. Brad says:

    Bill,

    Didn’t say GOP is hateful. A significant portion of their extremist primary voters are. Romney lost because these hateful voters stayed at home. He wasn’t hateful enough or them.

  16. Neither Here Nor There says:

    If you are referring to the questions, I will point out that they are not statements that is the reason for the question marks.

    I do know what you believe, but those are all statements that Donald Trump made, as he surrogates like to point out, we don’t know what is in head so we should assume that what he says is what he means.

    I don’t know you, Paul, you may be a wonderful person, but your decision to support someone that has clearly made racists, bigoted, xenophobic statements is baffling.

  17. Paul Kubosh says:

    Neither,i say the same thing about the Hillary supporters. She is what she is.