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CBS/YouGov: Trump 46, Clinton 43

Texas is being tracked as a battleground state. I can’t even believe I just typed that.

Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, while in Texas – a state that has voted Republican by wide margins in recent years – Trump leads by a mere three points.

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In 2012 Republicans won a double-digit victory in Texas, as they often do; it’s one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. Today Texas is close, and is more a story of Trump underperforming rather than Clinton over-performing typical Democrats, and why despite the tightness it may still be difficult for the Democrats to actually get those last points and win the state outright. Clinton is doing about as well with key groups as President Obama did in 2008, but Trump is under-performing the Republican benchmarks by roughly ten points among white men, white women, and college whites in particular. Many of those not with Trump are unsure or voting third-party rather than Clinton.

In 2008 then-candidate Obama lost white men in Texas by more than fifty points and Clinton is down 35 points today. That’s still a big gap but the sheer number of voters that represents is part of the reason for the difference in the race. Meanwhile, Hispanics in Texas, who are supporting Clinton, say they feel very motivated to vote this year.

Scroll down for the polling data. Much of what is there is stuff we have talked about before. Clinton has consolidated Democratic voters better than Trump has done with Republicans. 93% of Dems are with Clinton, with four percent for Trump, one percent for Gary Johnson, and one percent for “someone else”, while only 84% of Rs are voting Trump, with 7% for Clinton, 5% for Johnson, and 2% for “someone else”. Clinton leads among all voters under 45, with a 21-point lead with the under-30 crowd. Trump as noted isn’t doing as well among white voters as Republicans have done in the past, but he is once again weirdly above 30% with Latino voters. I continue to believe those results are off, and that we’ll see numbers more in line with national Latino preferences once we have actual data. But look, the big deal here is that Texas is being tracked as a Florida-like battleground state. Who would have thunk it?

On a side note, Real Clear Politics has Trump leading Clinton 44.2 to 39.6 in the two-way race and 43.6 to 38.8 in the four-way race, while FiveThirtyEight has it at Trump 49.1, Clinton 43.9. That would be the highest total for a Democrat in a Presidential race in Texas since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976.

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7 Comments

  1. Neither Here Nor There says:

    Based on voting the Republicans are in serious trouble in Harris County. Had to wait almost two hours to vote yesterday.

    Those extremely long lines are Stan Stanart’s fault, not properly hiring sufficient people and not enough equipment. I believe that is an effort to stop non-Republicans from voting, however, I think this year it is the Republicans that will not wait such a long time to vote for a pervert like Trump.

  2. voter_worker says:

    @Niether people aren’t breaking down the door to score a low pay, long hours and thankless job. We’re lucky that enough folks sign on to staff the elections.

  3. Neither Here Nor There says:

    You are correct voter worker, over the years they have lowered their pay, lowered or not paid for training. Yesterday some of those workers had to work 14 hours or longer with only a 30 minute lunch break. I blame Stan Stanart for that.

  4. Patrick says:

    A couple of months ago, I made a wager with my cousin that this election would have a closer margin that we’d seen in the last 20 years. In betting parlance I got Clinton +12. I don’t think it will end up as close as the recent polling suggests but I’m guessing easily under 10.

  5. voter_worker says:

    Neither, I don’t know who sets the pay scales or what the funding source is. If it’s Chapter 19 from the Secretary of State or County Commissioners could have an influence on the wage rates. The hours are pretty much determined by the SOS, aren’t they? Agree with you that there’s room for improvement especially on the pay end.

  6. Neither Here Nor There says:

    Voter- I went searching for pay schedules and it seems that different counties have different pay schedules, so I will assume that Stan Stanart has something to do with the pay.

    Long time ago I used to be a precinct judge and refused to work the elections as it would cost me money. Election Judges are also responsible for finding the staff to work on election day.

    High voter turn out is good for the Democrats.

  7. brad moore says:

    Neither,

    When you went to vote what percentage of the early voters were not white? Any women voting? Foreign languages heard? Non-christians? No one shouting “Trump that Bitch”?

    If so, you are right the Republicans may be in trouble here in Harris County.