Back to precinct analysis, and the race that I featured in my post from yesterday, the Railroad Commissioner race. Here are the numbers:
Dist Christian Yarbrough Miller Salinas
===========================================
CD02 152,751 97,235 18,346 6,835
CD07 130,384 96,652 20,510 6,537
CD09 24,638 99,920 4,712 4,090
CD10 77,311 32,577 5,878 2,337
CD18 43,820 142,609 9,862 6,382
CD29 33,443 85,330 4,257 7,592
SBOE6 319,691 228,147 44,294 15,691
HD126 33,674 22,848 3,185 1,459
HD127 46,101 22,131 3,739 1,499
HD128 39,827 15,472 2,187 1,374
HD129 39,382 22,904 4,625 1,965
HD130 56,188 18,871 4,140 1,483
HD131 6,367 36,890 1,305 1,461
HD132 35,680 27,715 3,292 1,823
HD133 45,030 22,170 6,822 1,533
HD134 42,007 33,962 10,841 2,219
HD135 30,447 24,537 3,064 1,606
HD137 8,239 16,035 1,500 1,012
HD138 25,823 20,468 3,066 1,530
HD139 11,398 37,155 1,986 1,531
HD140 5,966 19,100 723 1,554
HD141 4,720 31,697 739 938
HD142 9,770 32,566 1,201 1,244
HD143 8,346 21,557 872 1,895
HD144 10,257 14,596 872 1,313
HD145 10,263 19,993 1,814 2,227
HD146 9,111 35,284 2,502 1,397
HD147 11,201 40,452 3,795 2,287
HD148 16,582 24,304 4,471 2,249
HD149 14,760 25,088 1,879 1,236
HD150 46,285 24,053 3,891 1,615
CC1 67,803 220,765 16,172 9,891
CC2 119,023 110,723 11,292 10,243
CC3 181,634 138,514 23,279 8,882
CC4 198,962 139,834 21,768 9,432
Dist Christian% Yarb% Miller% Salinas%
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CD02 55.51% 35.34% 6.67% 2.48%
CD07 51.32% 38.04% 8.07% 2.57%
CD09 18.47% 74.93% 3.53% 3.07%
CD10 65.46% 27.58% 4.98% 1.98%
CD18 21.62% 70.36% 4.87% 3.15%
CD29 25.60% 65.33% 3.26% 5.81%
SBOE6 52.60% 37.54% 7.29% 2.58%
HD126 55.05% 37.35% 5.21% 2.39%
HD127 62.75% 30.12% 5.09% 2.04%
HD128 67.66% 26.29% 3.72% 2.33%
HD129 57.18% 33.25% 6.71% 2.85%
HD130 69.64% 23.39% 5.13% 1.84%
HD131 13.83% 80.16% 2.84% 3.17%
HD132 52.08% 40.45% 4.81% 2.66%
HD133 59.60% 29.34% 9.03% 2.03%
HD134 47.18% 38.15% 12.18% 2.49%
HD135 51.04% 41.13% 5.14% 2.69%
HD137 30.76% 59.86% 5.60% 3.78%
HD138 50.75% 40.22% 6.03% 3.01%
HD139 21.89% 71.36% 3.81% 2.94%
HD140 21.82% 69.85% 2.64% 5.68%
HD141 12.39% 83.21% 1.94% 2.46%
HD142 21.82% 72.72% 2.68% 2.78%
HD143 25.55% 65.98% 2.67% 5.80%
HD144 37.94% 53.98% 3.23% 4.86%
HD145 29.92% 58.29% 5.29% 6.49%
HD146 18.87% 73.06% 5.18% 2.89%
HD147 19.40% 70.06% 6.57% 3.96%
HD148 34.83% 51.05% 9.39% 4.72%
HD149 34.36% 58.39% 4.37% 2.88%
HD150 61.03% 31.71% 5.13% 2.13%
CC1 21.55% 70.17% 5.14% 3.14%
CC2 47.37% 44.06% 4.49% 4.08%
CC3 51.56% 39.32% 6.61% 2.52%
CC4 53.77% 37.79% 5.88% 2.55%
One thing I didn’t discuss in my previous post was whether Libertarian votes tend to come from people who otherwise vote Republican and Green votes tend to come from people who otherwise vote Democratic. There’s some support for that in the numbers above, as Libertarian candidate Mark Miller did better than Green candidate Martina Salinas in all of the Republican districts, but that wasn’t true in reverse, as he also beat her total in several Democratic districts. The clearest correlation appears to be that Salinas did best in the heavily Latino districts, which is a bit of corroborating evidence for my overall theory. Beyond that, I don’t see anything to contradict that hypothesis, but I don’t see anything to settle the matter.
What can one say about Miller’s top performances, in HDs 134, 133, and 148? Well, HD148 is where the Heights dry area is, and Gary Johnson ran well in that neighborhood, so it’s not too surprising that Mark Miller might have also. It may well be that these are the parts of town that have a higher concentration of people who read the Chronicle and takes its endorsements seriously. “Why” is a hard question to answer with just numbers, but if I had to guess those would be my top two reasons.
Coming up will be a look at judicial races, and after that the county races. As always, let me know what you think of these.
I live in HD 133 and voted for the Libertarian Miller.
1) because he is well qualified
2) to help maintain the Libertarian’s ballot position in Texas and help grow alternative policy discussion
I am an independent voter and vote about 65/35 for Dem/Rep candidates on average in the absence of other candidates.