I have not done Fort Bend precinct analyses in the past because I don’t get easily-worked-with CSV-format canvass reports from them after elections. However, it turns out that their election returns page for this year has a “Reports” button on it from which one can download an Excel-format canvass report. It’s laid out differently than the Harris County reports, in a way that made this all a bit more labor-intensive, but I was able to work with it. I’ve got it in two posts, one for today on the Commissioners Court precincts, and one for tomorrow on the State Rep districts. So with that said, let’s dive on in with a look at the Presidential races from this year and 2012.
President - 2016
Pcnct Rep Dem Lib Grn Rep % Dem % Lib % Grn %
=================================================================
CC1 28,737 26,823 1,502 332 50.07% 46.73% 2.62% 0.58%
CC2 11,969 41,887 925 470 21.66% 75.81% 1.67% 0.85%
CC3 44,899 29,891 2,555 472 57.70% 38.41% 3.28% 0.61%
CC4 31,607 35,874 1,916 508 45.21% 51.32% 2.74% 0.73%
President - 2012
Pcnct Rep Dem Lib Grn Rep % Dem % Lib % Grn %
=================================================================
CC1 26,771 20,521 362 74 56.09% 43.00% 0.76% 0.16%
CC2 12,354 38,699 274 100 24.02% 75.25% 0.53% 0.19%
CC3 42,394 17,862 528 111 69.62% 29.33% 0.87% 0.18%
CC4 34,607 24,062 555 175 58.26% 40.51% 0.93% 0.29%
Looking at these numbers, your first instinct might be to ask how it is that Commissioner Richard Morrison lost his bid for re-election in Precinct 1. I would remind you that he won in 2012 against a candidate that had been disavowed by the Fort Bend County GOP after it was discovered he had voted in multiple locations in a previous election. I’ll also say again not to be too distracted by the Trump/Clinton numbers, since there were a fair amount of crossover votes. This will become apparent when we look at other county races in the Commissioners Court precincts. The bottom line was that this was the first time Morrison, who was elected in 2008 to succeed a scandal-plagued incumbent, faced a conventional, establishment-type candidate with no obvious baggage, and it was too much to overcome in a precinct that skews Republican. It’s a shame, because Morrison is a great guy who did a fine job as Commissioner, but we were basically playing with house money. Morrison is still a young guy who could certainly run for something else if he wanted to – County Judge is one obvious possibility – so I hope we’ll see him again.
The other point of interest is the Democratic growth in Precincts 3 and 4, especially 4, where Hillary Clinto got a majority of the vote. Again, there are crossover voters here, but as you’ll see in a minute, the growth is real. Precinct 4 will be up in 2018, so this is an obvious target of interest for Fort Bend Democrats. As with all population growth areas, ensuring that new residents are registered will be a key to any strategy, as will making new arrivals who are in line with Democratic values aware of the party’s presence while dispelling the myth that Fort Bend is a Republican stronghold. This growth has implications for the State Rep races as well, which we will get to in the next post.
Now let’s take a look at the contested county-level races, for some perspective on the partisan levels in each precinct.
District Judge, 240th Judicial District
Pcnct Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
====================================
CC1 31,249 25,475 55.09% 44.91%
CC2 13,490 41,211 24.66% 75.34%
CC3 50,214 26,881 65.13% 34.87%
CC4 36,630 32,260 53.17% 46.83%
District Judge, 400th Judicial District
Pcnct Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
====================================
CC1 31,481 25,299 55.44% 44.56%
CC2 13,570 41,177 24.79% 75.21%
CC3 50,401 26,694 65.38% 34.62%
CC4 36,803 32,186 53.35% 46.65%
Judge, County Court at Law No. 5
Pcnct Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
====================================
CC1 30,686 25,982 54.15% 45.85%
CC2 13,309 41,330 24.36% 75.64%
CC3 49,725 27,308 64.55% 35.45%
CC4 36,129 32,707 52.49% 47.51%
Sheriff
Pcnct Rep Dem Rep % Dem %
====================================
CC1 32,010 25,236 55.92% 44.08%
CC2 13,595 41,255 24.79% 75.21%
CC3 51,268 26,386 66.02% 33.98%
CC4 38,091 31,463 54.76% 45.24%
So as you can see, Precinct 1 is basically 55-45 Republican, which is close to what it was in 2012. Morrison lost by five points, so he did get some crossovers, just not enough to overcome the lean of the precinct. Republicans in Precinct 2 who didn’t want to vote for Trump went third party instead of crossing over for Hillary Clinton. Precinct 3 looks more like the Republican powerhouse it was in 2012, though as you can that while both Rs and Ds gained voters, Ds gained a handful more. That’s enough to reduce the Republican percentage of the vote, but it didn’t do much for the size of the deficit. The big difference in in Precinct 4, where Dems netted about a 6,000 vote gain to narrow the gap to about five points. That’s enough to make it an opportunity, but it’s still a challenge. I don’t know enough to have any specific advice for the Fort Bend folks, but the numbers are clear. Start the recruitment process as soon as possible, and look towards 2018.
Pingback: Precinct analysis: Fort Bend State Rep districts – Off the Kuff