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Two from PPP (RV): Cruz 48, O’Rourke 45, and Cruz 49, O’Rourke 46

Fourth in a series from PPP.

Rep. Beto O’Rourke

A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey commissioned by Protect Our Care finds that 62 percent of voters in Texas say health care will be one of the most important issues they consider when casting their vote in November. What’s more, 44 percent are deeply concerned about Senator Ted Cruz’s work to repeal health care and nearly 60 percent oppose the Trump Administration’s lawsuit to end protections for those with pre-existing conditions, which Cruz has refused to oppose.

The poll shows that for Cruz, who has been among the GOP’s fiercest advocates for repealing the American health care law, the issue is a drag on his prospects for reelection. In the poll, Cruz is in a dead heat against Democrat Beto O’Rourke 48 (Cruz) to 45 (O’Rourke). The poll was conducted September 19th and 20th among 613 Texas registered voters. The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4 percent.

“Ted Cruz thought he was going to score political points shutting the government down trying to repeal health care, but what he actually did was put his own reelection prospects in serious jeopardy. Ted Cruz’s constituents say health care is one of the most important issues to them this election, and as a result he’s taking on some pretty serious water in this race. Whether it is Cruz’s opposition to protections for people with pre-existing conditions or his vote for an age tax, Ted Cruz’s extreme health care views are rejected by his constituents.”

The full polling memo is here. That hit my inbox on Thursday. On Friday, I got this:

A new poll of likely voters in Texas, commissioned by End Citizens United (ECU) and conducted by PPP, shows that Beto O’Rourke continues to close in on Senator Ted Cruz. ECU’s latest poll shows O’Rourke behind Cruz by three points, 46-49 percent. Click here to see the full polling.

When voters learned of O’Rourke’s decision to reject all PAC money and Cruz’s reliance on special interests, O’Rourke takes the lead 48-46 percent.

This is the fourth poll ECU has conducted in the race with each poll showing O’Rourke increasingly closing the gap. In January, O’Rourke was within eight points of Cruz, 37-45 percent. By June, O’Rourke had moved to within six points, 43-49 percent. In July, he closed the gap to four points, 42-46 percent. The latest poll conducted this week has him within the margin of error.

“Beto and his message of reform continues to win over Texans,” said ECU President Tiffany Muller. “He’s spent the last 18 months visiting every county in the state, listening to voters, and inspiring people to get involved. With just a few weeks until Election Day, Beto has pulled even with Ted Cruz and is in position to win this race.”

PPP surveyed 603 Texas voters from September 19-20. The margin of error is +/- 4%.

Based on his record of fighting for reform and his decision to reject all PAC money, Beto O’Rourke was the first challenger ECU endorsed in the 2018 midterms. For O’Rourke, ECU was his first national endorsement. ECU’s grassroots members have donated over $350,000 to O’Rourke’s campaign, averaging just $13 per contribution. Beto is one of only a handful of members of Congress to reject all PAC money, a decision that has made him a leader of a growing trend, with 124 no corporate PAC candidates advancing to the general election.

That poll memo is here. I think these are two different polls – they have different sponsors, slightly different results, and slightly different sample sizes (613 for the first, 603 for the latter), though they were all done between September 19 and 20. The End Citizens United-sponsored polls done by PPP are the ones I have linked on my sidebar. Protect Our Care references earlier polls, which could be these ECU polls, but doesn’t provide links, so who knows. I will say that ECU’s characterization of this as “within the margin of error” is correct, and POC’s “in a dead heat” is wrong and should be avoided. Both of these polls, plus that Ipsos poll arrived after the Quinnipiac poll, to vastly less fanfare; at least RG Ratcliffe acknowledged the existence of the Ipsos poll. The 18-poll average is now 46.83 for Cruz, and 41.83 for Beto.

On a side note, I also received a press release from the Republican Party of Texas announcing that they had filed a complaint with the FEC against End Citizens United for “ECU’s failure to file a direct expenditure for public communications in support of – or as an in-kind contribution to – the Beto for Texas campaign.” You can search the Internet for the eyeroll GIF of your choice here. It’s the weekend, and I can hear a beer calling my name.

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17 Comments

  1. Manny Barrera says:

    Real Clear Politics has moved Texas to a toss-up. Momentum continues with Beto, he is the only one running adds in the Spanish TV stations.

    Polls will continue to energize people who care about others.

  2. Bill Daniels says:

    O’Roarke:

    “No PAC’s, just people.”

    *wealthy people from California and NY who bundle their money together to support O’Roarke

  3. Jeff says:

    Bill Daniels,

    Considering US Senators from every state actually represent all of us, why make a big deal out of money coming in from other states? The winner of this election (Cruz or Beto) represents 1 vote out of 100 on legislation and policy that affects every American.

  4. Bill Daniels says:

    Jeff,

    O’Roarke has made where campaign funds come from a big deal. That, and his repeated refrain of, “I’ve visited all 254 counties in Texas” are his two signature messages. I didn’t make those things a big deal…..O’Roarke did.

  5. Manny Barrera says:

    Bill, What exactly is so bad about California and New York?

    I have never understood the stupid phrases that Republicans throw out is being bad or evil. Only the ignorant fall for that kind of BS.

    Cruz is worse than Trump. How many people killed with guns in California? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/02/21/states-most-and-least-gun-violence-see-where-your-state-stacks-up/359395002/

    The most debt per person: https://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2013/dec/06/debra-medina/texas-near-top-local-debt-capita/

    Education, health care, when you look at all the things that make life better Texas is near the bottom.

  6. pa says:

    Manny,

    California and New York are amazing states. Not a place I would like to live because I believe they are over taxed and over regulated. However, it is not a Heaven or Hell issue. On Judgment day I don’t think God will say because you were a Socialist you don’t get into Heaven. That being said I don’t want to be like California or New York. One day the democrats will run a fiscal conservative for President and that candidate will sweep all 50 states.

  7. Manny Barrera says:

    pa, you mean like the Republicans in office now, you are not serious or you have not seriously looked at what you are voting for when you state fiscal conservative. It looks that your Republicans are doubling at least what Obama did with the deficit and not a peek from the fiscal conservatives, including the Tea Party budget busters.

    Over taxed and over regulated, I take it that is only personal opinion or do you have data to backup your claim?

  8. C.L. says:

    Oh, Manny. Always looking to pick a fight, you are.

  9. Andrew Lynch says:

    Beto momentum fell flat after debate. Cruz base is getting energized by the Beto pressure. Republicans will come out strong in Texas.

  10. Manny Barrera says:

    C.L. there you go again, you like to fling mud but you don’t like it thrown at you.

    I am really sorry that you believe what people tell you with out data or facts. But your brainy little self can answer for him. Do you have data on the over regulated and over taxed part?

    How can one refer to themselves as fiscal conservatives and the they have nothing to say about the deficit that was created by Trump and the Republicans?

    He used over taxed and over regulated with the word believe in front of that. Then proceeded to claim that anyone that probably does not agree with him a socialist.

    C.L. why not hide and leave me along, if you don’t like for me to reference you.

  11. Manny Barrera says:

    with his is…

    alone,

  12. C.L. says:

    So much anger.

  13. Manny Barrera says:

    Yes C.L coming from the person who votes against someone because he does not like their hair. The anger is in you C.L. you gripe about my mentioning your name and then and come and poke a stick at me. The anger is within you C.L. don’t pretend that your racist, hateful, demeanor does not exist. When you can’t hold it back. But C.L. why not give us your real name so we or at least I can verify what you really stand for?

  14. Manny Barrera says:

    Or is C.I. really you in disguise C.L.?

  15. Manny Barrera says:

    C.L. Why are you always defending the Trump racists?

  16. C.L. says:

    Ain’t gonna bait me, Manny.

  17. Manny Barrera says:

    C.L.; You replied, that means you took the bait. Now one more time, if I ain’t addressing you why take a stick and poke at me.

    Is is C.I. or C.L. not much difference in believes between the one of you or maybe two of you.