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UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4

Okay, fine, this is the final poll of the cycle.

Rep. Beto O’Rourke

Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday.

According to the poll, which is the first one released by the university, 47 percent of the 905 likely voters surveyed online and on the phone said they would vote for Cruz, while 43.4 percent said they would vote for O’Rourke; 5.7 percent said they were “not sure,” and 3.9 percent chose “other.”

Among registered voters in the poll, Cruz’s lead was slightly larger at 4.3 percentage points, with 46.5 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Cruz, 42.2 percent saying they would vote for O’Rourke, 7.7 percent saying they were “not sure” and 3.5 percent choosing “other.”

The poll follows a slate of polls that show Cruz’s lead over O’Rourke narrowing. A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday said Cruz was up by 5 percentage points, and a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Friday showed Cruz up by 6.

The UT-Tyler poll was conducted Oct. 15-28 and surveyed 1,033 adults. The margin of error among likely voters was 3.26 percentage points, while the margin of error among registered voters was 3.03 percentage points, according to Mark Owens, a political science professor at UT-Tyler who helped run the poll.

You can see the poll data here. I’ve no idea how UT-Tyler is as a polling outfit, but we’ll see how they do. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t ask respondents if they have already voted if your time in the field includes a week of early voting, but maybe that’s just me. The poll also has Greg Abbott up by 20 on Lupe Valdez, which is easily the largest difference between that race and Beto/Cruz. They have Valdez down in the low 30s. As you know, I don’t think there will be nearly that much separation between Beto and Lupe – some, but not double digits. The overall sample seems a bit Republican-leaning, based on their Trump/Clinton numbers, but perhaps that’s a function of their likely voter screen. Anyway, I’ll say again that I think this will be the last poll result we’ll see before we see the canonical one that counts.

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9 Comments

  1. Manny Barrera says:

    Don’t know where the author got his data but if it is true then Beto may win or come very close, 508% increase of voters of young voters this year.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/31/1808939/-Open-thread-for-night-owls-Record-breaking-early-voting-backs-blue-wave-hopes-Young-voters-step-up

  2. Cameron Self says:

    Nope! Emerson poll out today. Cruz 50, Beto 47.

    I expect you to talk about it! haha.

    Cam

  3. voter_worker says:

    The downside of an O’Rourke loss, if it happens, will be temporary. He’s personally charismatic and has an efficient and savvy organization, an uplifting message, momentum, and a large, enthusiastic constituency. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t already have a Plan B for 2020.

  4. Manny Barrera says:

    Camerson even if the poll is correct, 50-47 what does that tell you about Texas turning Blue.

    But Harris County will be blue all election cycles. One thing I know about people they like to belong to the winning team. Many Republicans will become Democrats here in Harris County.

    Two more years of hate by Trump will make it where other than maybe the Senate, Republicans will be a minority party maybe forever and another party will replace it.

    The Democrats, the Nationalists, and what ever the former Republican Party becomes.

  5. Yes, I thought you might be jumping the gun about polls. Everyone is watching this race.
    Momentum may have turned. Last few days with the last poll within 3 must have all the Republicans pissing in their pants.

    https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv#.W9s1RWhKgy8

  6. Cameron Self says:

    Manny, my post was more or less light-hearted and not an analysis. Kuff said that THIS was the last poll. And then another poll came out lol

    To your point, I agree. This is really about the long-term game. We are building an infrastructure. To your point about Harris Co Republicans becoming Democrats, I wonder if people like Ed Emmit end up losing, will they run again but as moderate Democrats? There are moderate Republicans in the Houston area who run as Republicans because in the not too distant past, that was the more safe party to run under. But the political calculus is changing. We shall see…

  7. Manny Barrera says:

    Cameron there are doing daily polling, probably up to election day. Beto is coming up on polls but more interesting is the higher percentage of young people voting. Those people are probably not polled and in all likelihood not part of any polls, or at least under represented in polls. That could result in a November surprise for Beto and a few others.

    Cruz is running commercials where is claiming to have done things, that is very unusual for him. Trump coming here probably hurt the Republicans at least here in Harris County, thus they have not asked him back and Trump’s schedule does not seem to include Texas.

  8. mollusk says:

    Totally anecdotal, but at the barber shop this afternoon most of the political ads on the TV were getting either no reaction at all, or about a 50 D – 30 R – 20 “I don’t care – please make it stop” split. Except one: the newest Cruz ad about Beto’s DWI 20 years ago. That one got universal cat calling.

    Anecdotal data point #2: My brother in deep, deep red Burnet County (they generally think Montgomery and WilCo are suspiciously liberal) reports seeing Beto signs.

  9. […] UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4 […]