I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07.
CD07
Candidate Votes Pct
==========================
Culberson 115,418 47.49%
Fletcher 127,568 52.50%
Cruz 112,078 45.99%
O'Rourke 129,781 53.25%
Abbott 127,414 52.45%
Valdez 111,248 45.79%
Patrick 113,520 46.77%
Collier 124,555 51.31%
Paxton 110,526 45.63%
Nelson 126,567 52.25%
Hegar 124,558 51.69%
Chevalier 109,747 45.54%
Bush 121,500 50.31%
Suazo 114,267 47.31%
Miller 112,853 46.93%
Olson 123,473 51.35%
Craddick 124,873 51.93%
McAllen 110,377 45.90%
Emmett 135,016 57.34%
Hidalgo 100,412 42.66%
Daniel 123,371 51.97%
Burgess 114,006 48.03%
Stanart 116,383 49.98%
Trautman 116,488 50.02%
Sanchez 125,682 53.01%
Osborne 112,399 46.99%
Cowart 116,611 49.29%
Cantu 119,973 50.71%
State R avg 50.38%
State D avg 49.62%
Appeal R avg 51.63%
Appeal D avg 48.37%
County R avg 51.54%
County D avg 48.46%
The three categories at the end are the respective percentages for the state judicial races, the 1st and 14th Court of Appeals races, and the district court race, averaged over all of the candidates in each. I took third party and independent candidate vote totals into account in calculating the percentages, so they may not sum to 100. So just as Harris County is not purple but blue, so CD07 is not red but purple. Given the variance in how candidates did in this district, I have to think that while Democratic turnout helped reduce the previously existing partisan gap, the rest of the change is the result of people with a past Republican history deciding they just didn’t support the Republican in question. To the extent that that’s true, and as I have said before, I believe this brightens Lizzie Fletcher’s re-election prospects in 2020. She’s already done the hard work of convincing people she’s worth voting for, and the Republicans have helped by convincing people that they don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. Obviously, lots of things can affect that, ranging from Fletcher’s performance over the next two years to the person the Rs nominate to oppose her to the Trump factor and more. Demography will still be working in the Dems’ favor, and Dems have built a pretty good turnout machine here. Expect this to be another top race in 2020, so be prepared to keep your DVR remote handy so you can zap the endless commercials that will be running.
CD02
Candidate Votes Pct
==========================
Crenshaw 139,012 52.87%
Litton 119,708 45.52%
Cruz 132,390 50.22%
O'Rourke 129,160 49.00%
Abbott 146,399 55.66%
Valdez 112,272 42.69%
Patrick 134,530 51.22%
Collier 123,364 46.97%
Paxton 131,374 50.11%
Nelson 125,193 47.76%
Hegar 141,744 54.34%
Chevalier 111,763 42.85%
Bush 139,352 53.33%
Suazo 114,931 43.99%
Miller 133,022 51.04%
Olson 122,897 47.15%
Craddick 142,254 54.61%
McAllen 112,407 43.15%
Emmett 150,630 59.24%
Hidalgo 103,625 40.76%
Daniel 141,260 54.80%
Burgess 116,519 45.20%
Stanart 135,427 53.70%
Trautman 116,744 46.30%
Sanchez 143,554 55.60%
Osborne 114,652 44.40%
Cowart 136,367 53.07%
Cantu 120,574 46.93%
State R avg 53.82%
State D avg 46.18%
Appeal R avg 54.30%
Appeal D avg 45.70%
County R avg 54.60%
County D avg 45.40%
CD02 was still just a little too Republican for Dems to overcome, though it’s closer to parity now than CD07 was in 2016. Dan Crenshaw proved to be a strong nominee for the Rs as well, running in the upper half of GOP candidates in the district. Given these numbers, Kathaleen Wall would probably have won as well, but it would have been closer, and I don’t know how confident anyone would feel about her re-election chances. As with CD07, there’s evidence that the Republican base may have eroded in addition to the Dem baseline rising. I feel pretty confident that as soon as someone puts together a list of Top Democratic Targets For 2020, this district will be on it (one of several from Texas, if they’re doing it right). I don’t expect Crenshaw to be outraised this time, however. Did I mention that you’re going to need to keep your remote handy in the fall of 2020? We wanted to be a swing state, we have to take the bad with the good.
For a bit of perspective on how these districts have changed:
CD07
Candidate Votes Pct
==========================
Culb 16 143,542 56.17%
Cargas 16 111,991 43.83%
Trump 16 121,204 46.80%
Clinton 16 124,722 48.20%
State R 16 avg 55.35%
State D 16 avg 43.05%
Culb 14 90,606 63.26%
Cargas 14 49,478 34.55%
Abbott 14 87,098 60.10%
Davis 14 61,387 38.30%
State R 14 avg 64.38%
State D 14 avg 33.58%
Culb 12 142,793 60.81%
Cargas 12 85,553 36.43%
Romney 12 143,631 59.90%
Obama 12 92,499 38.60%
State R 12 avg 59.78%
State D 12 avg 36.98%
CD02
Candidate Votes Pct
==========================
Poe 16 168,692 60.63%
Bryan 16 100,231 36.02%
Trump 16 145,530 52.00%
Clinton 16 119,659 42.80%
State R 16 avg 57.26%
State D 16 avg 37.59%
Poe 14 101,936 67.95%
Letsos 14 44,462 29.64%
Abbott 14 94,622 62.70%
Davis 14 53,836 35.70%
State R 14 avg 65.57%
State D 14 avg 32.26%
Poe 12 159,664 64.82%
Doherty 12 80,512 32.68%
It really is staggering how much has changed since the beginning of the decade. There’s nothing in these numbers that would make you think either of these districts was particularly competitive, let alone winnable. The CD07 numbers from 2016 might make you put it on a second- or third-tier list of pickup opportunities, in range if everything goes well. Dems have registered a lot of new voters, and the turnout effort this year was great, but I have to assume that this is the Trump factor at work, degrading Republican performance. Of all the variables going into 2020, I start with the belief that this is the biggest one. I don’t think there’s any real room to win these voters back for the Republicans, though individual candidates may still have appeal. The question is whether there are more for them to lose or if they’ve basically hit bottom. Not a question I’d want to face if I were them.
I do not believe Kathaleen Wall would have won CD2. She was a uniquely poor candidate. But Paxton was wounded and still won the district, so maybe you are right.