He won pretty much everywhere you looked. So let’s look at the numbers:
Dist Cruz Beto Dike Cruz% Beto% Trump% Clint%
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CD02 132,390 129,160 2,047 50.22% 49.00% 52.38% 43.05%
CD07 112,078 129,781 1,843 45.99% 53.25% 47.11% 48.47%
CD08 17,552 11,299 219 60.38% 38.87%
CD09 22,625 96,747 705 18.84% 80.57% 17.56% 79.70%
CD10 70,435 43,559 849 61.33% 37.93% 63.61% 32.36%
CD18 37,567 145,752 1,314 20.35% 78.94% 19.95% 76.46%
CD22 15,099 16,379 255 47.58% 51.62%
CD29 29,988 86,918 673 25.50% 73.92% 25.46% 71.09%
CD36 60,441 38,985 734 60.34% 38.92%
SBOE6 278,443 299,800 4,608 47.77% 51.44% 48.92% 46.59%
HD126 28,683 26,642 385 51.49% 47.82% 52.96% 42.99%
HD127 40,910 27,332 491 59.52% 39.77% 61.23% 34.90%
HD128 34,892 17,040 330 66.76% 32.60% 68.17% 28.75%
HD129 35,233 29,467 547 54.00% 45.16% 55.33% 40.06%
HD130 50,631 25,486 581 66.01% 33.23% 68.08% 27.94%
HD131 5,921 35,793 214 14.12% 85.37% 13.33% 84.31%
HD132 32,045 34,388 467 47.90% 51.40% 50.04% 45.68%
HD133 39,175 32,412 578 54.29% 44.91% 54.54% 41.11%
HD134 35,387 54,687 686 38.99% 60.25% 39.58% 55.12%
HD135 26,108 29,740 438 46.38% 52.84% 48.91% 46.80%
HD137 6,996 17,188 184 28.71% 70.54% 28.95% 66.96%
HD138 22,682 25,748 404 46.45% 52.73% 47.80% 47.83%
HD139 10,245 36,770 283 21.66% 77.74% 20.60% 76.12%
HD140 5,181 18,305 123 21.95% 77.53% 21.89% 75.07%
HD141 3,976 27,231 170 12.67% 86.79% 12.58% 85.20%
HD142 8,410 31,178 225 21.12% 78.31% 20.97% 76.20%
HD143 7,482 21,146 164 25.99% 73.44% 26.02% 71.03%
HD144 8,895 14,406 162 37.91% 61.40% 38.41% 57.72%
HD145 9,376 23,500 255 28.30% 70.93% 28.73% 66.91%
HD146 7,817 35,558 301 17.90% 81.41% 17.31% 79.44%
HD147 9,359 45,894 355 16.83% 82.53% 16.76% 79.00%
HD148 14,536 33,378 531 30.01% 68.90% 30.49% 63.83%
HD149 13,603 25,179 252 34.85% 64.51% 32.51% 64.25%
HD150 40,632 30,112 513 57.02% 42.26% 59.18% 36.62%
CC1 59,092 230,334 1,851 20.29% 79.08% 19.74% 76.83%
CC2 105,548 122,309 1,617 46.00% 53.30% 46.79% 49.48%
CC3 159,957 173,028 2,501 47.68% 51.58% 48.22% 47.63%
CC4 173,578 172,909 2,670 49.71% 49.52% 51.22% 44.42%
I threw in the Trump/Clinton percentages from 2016 for extra context. Note that for the Congressional districts, the numbers in question are only for the Harris County portion of the district. I apparently didn’t bother with all of the CDs in 2016, so I’ve only got some of those numbers. Anyway, a few thoughts:
– It finally occurred to me in looking at these numbers why the Trump/Clinton percentages from 2016 might be a decent predictor of 2018 performance, at least in some races. Trump’s numbers were deflated relative to other Republicans in part because of the other available candidates, from Gary Johnson to Evan McMullin and even Jill Stein. In 2018, with a similarly objectionable Republican and a much-better-liked Democrat, the vast majority of those votes would stick with the Dem instead of reverting back to the R. That, plus a bit more, is what happened in this race. We won’t see that in every race, and where we do see it we won’t necessarily see as much of it, but it’s a pattern that exists in several contests.
– Okay, fine, Beto didn’t quite win everything. He did come close in CD02, and he came really close in Commissioners Court Precinct 4, the most Republican precinct in the county. Steve Radack may be hearing some footsteps behind him in Precinct 3 for 2020. I’ll talk more about CD02 in another post.
– How about SBOE district 6, the one political entity subject to redistricting that I inhabit where the incumbent is a Republican? Trump made it look swingy in 2016, but the other Republican statewides were carrying it by 13-15 points. Mitt Romney won it by 21 points in 2012, and Greg Abbott carried it by 23 points in 2014. There aren’t that many opportunities for Dems to play offense in Harris County in 2020, but this is one of them.
– Beto was the top performer in 2018, so his numbers are the best from a Democratic perspective. As with the Trump/Clinton numbers in 2016, that means that I will be a bit of a killjoy and warn about taking these numbers as the harbinger of things to come in two years. There’s a range of possibility, as you will see, and of course all of that is before we take into account the political environment and the quality of the candidates in whatever race you’re now greedily eyeing.
– But that doesn’t mean we can’t speculate a little. Clearly, HD138 is the top target in 2020, with HD126 a bit behind. Farther out, but honestly not that far off of where HDs 132, 135, and 138 were in 2016, are HDs 129 and 133, with HD150 another step back from them. (I consider HD134 to be a unicorn, with Sarah Davis the favorite to win regardless of outside conditions.) The latter three are all unlikely, but after this year, would anyone say they’re impossible? Again, lots of things can and will happen between now and then, but there’s no harm in doing a little window shopping now.
More to come in the next couple of weeks.
Kuffner any chance you would be able to do a breakdown by Houston City Council/HISD districts?
Short answer is No, because that data doesn’t exist in the canvass that I have. I can do city/not city because of the two ballot props, but I don’t have the breakdown by Council district in this data.
I could request that data separately from the County Clerk, and if I have the time I may. But for right now I don’t have what you’re looking for.
I actually called the county clerks office today. They do not have the data broken down by COH council districts or HISD districts. I’m crunching the numbers myself. I’ll post them up here when I get done.
Charles, where do you get your data? Is this something publicly available? Thanks.
Marty – All data comes from the County Clerk. It’s just the canvass data. I get a copy of the draft canvass. The final data will be in their Elections archive. You can email them and ask for a copy, or email me and I’ll share mine with you.
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