Last time, we looked at undervoting by State Rep district in the two city propositions, which were at the very end of the 2018 ballot. That showed a somewhat greater likelihood of people in Democratic districts to skip those races, which was the first real evidence to support the assertion that Dems might suffer more in the post-straight ticket world. I said this was suggestive but far from conclusive, since we were looking at non-partisan referenda, with no candidates involved.
So with that in mind, let’s look at undervoting in a few of the judicial races that were on the ballot this year. These are also low profile and deep into the ballot, but they do provide the cue of party identification. What if any patterns do we see in the tendency to not vote in these races? To try to answer this, I looked at six judicial races, three of the first ones that appear and which have an overall low undervote rate, and three that appear near the end and which have an overall high undervote rate.
55th Civil Court
Dist Rep Dem None Rep% Dem% Under%
======================================================
HD126 30,233 24,644 1,355 55.09% 44.91% 10.85%
HD127 42,637 24,900 1,574 63.13% 36.87% 10.12%
HD128 35,499 16,006 1,166 68.92% 31.08% 10.70%
HD129 37,342 26,324 2,023 58.65% 41.35% 12.24%
HD130 52,602 22,821 1,669 69.74% 30.26% 10.04%
HD131 6,328 35,416 803 15.16% 84.84% 9.40%
HD132 33,591 32,514 1,267 50.81% 49.19% 9.54%
HD133 43,482 26,449 2,625 62.18% 37.82% 12.38%
HD134 43,229 43,298 4,447 49.96% 50.04% 13.50%
HD135 27,503 27,919 1,288 49.62% 50.38% 10.82%
HD137 7,664 16,339 651 31.93% 68.07% 12.07%
HD138 24,343 23,390 1,477 51.00% 49.00% 12.93%
HD139 11,101 35,586 1,187 23.78% 76.22% 11.00%
HD140 5,470 17,978 604 23.33% 76.67% 14.49%
HD141 4,035 27,344 456 12.86% 87.14% 8.83%
HD142 8,754 30,706 762 22.18% 77.82% 9.07%
HD143 7,706 20,648 883 27.18% 72.82% 14.69%
HD144 9,282 13,946 589 39.96% 60.04% 13.11%
HD145 10,224 22,188 1,053 31.54% 68.46% 13.19%
HD146 8,664 34,224 1,237 20.20% 79.80% 11.43%
HD147 10,994 43,284 1,603 20.25% 79.75% 11.21%
HD148 17,180 29,480 2,205 36.82% 63.18% 14.28%
HD149 14,500 24,179 994 37.49% 62.51% 13.36%
HD150 42,340 27,688 1,648 60.46% 39.54% 10.41%
113th Civil Court
Dist Rep Dem None Rep% Dem% Under%
======================================================
HD126 30,196 24,706 1,330 55.00% 45.00% 10.65%
HD127 42,466 25,062 1,582 62.89% 37.11% 10.17%
HD128 35,412 16,121 1,137 68.72% 31.28% 10.43%
HD129 37,111 26,583 1,994 58.26% 41.74% 12.07%
HD130 52,495 22,970 1,628 69.56% 30.44% 9.79%
HD131 6,340 35,364 843 15.20% 84.80% 9.87%
HD132 33,499 32,612 1,263 50.67% 49.33% 9.51%
HD133 43,377 26,602 2,576 61.99% 38.01% 12.15%
HD134 42,809 43,765 4,399 49.45% 50.55% 13.36%
HD135 27,447 27,985 1,278 49.51% 50.49% 10.74%
HD137 7,652 16,353 649 31.88% 68.12% 12.03%
HD138 24,316 23,460 1,434 50.90% 49.10% 12.55%
HD139 11,015 35,683 1,175 23.59% 76.41% 10.89%
HD140 5,397 18,035 619 23.03% 76.97% 14.85%
HD141 4,031 27,310 494 12.86% 87.14% 9.56%
HD142 8,737 30,727 758 22.14% 77.86% 9.02%
HD143 7,650 20,712 875 26.97% 73.03% 14.55%
HD144 9,214 14,003 600 39.69% 60.31% 13.35%
HD145 10,086 22,309 1,071 31.13% 68.87% 13.42%
HD146 8,650 34,212 1,264 20.18% 79.82% 11.68%
HD147 10,915 43,365 1,600 20.11% 79.89% 11.19%
HD148 17,005 29,665 2,194 36.44% 63.56% 14.21%
HD149 14,447 24,233 993 37.35% 62.65% 13.35%
HD150 42,295 27,745 1,635 60.39% 39.61% 10.33%
157th Civil Court
Dist Rep Dem None Rep% Dem% Under%
======================================================
HD126 30,042 24,846 1,343 54.73% 45.27% 10.76%
HD127 42,272 25,265 1,573 62.59% 37.41% 10.12%
HD128 35,281 16,231 1,159 68.49% 31.51% 10.63%
HD129 36,933 26,762 1,993 57.98% 42.02% 12.06%
HD130 52,322 23,142 1,628 69.33% 30.67% 9.79%
HD131 6,238 35,494 815 14.95% 85.05% 9.54%
HD132 33,353 32,753 1,266 50.45% 49.55% 9.54%
HD133 43,043 26,911 2,601 61.53% 38.47% 12.27%
HD134 42,716 43,888 4,370 49.32% 50.68% 13.27%
HD135 27,295 28,129 1,286 49.25% 50.75% 10.81%
HD137 7,550 16,442 662 31.47% 68.53% 12.27%
HD138 24,070 23,719 1,420 50.37% 49.63% 12.43%
HD139 10,938 35,770 1,166 23.42% 76.58% 10.81%
HD140 5,375 18,069 607 22.93% 77.07% 14.57%
HD141 3,982 27,377 475 12.70% 87.30% 9.19%
HD142 8,699 30,765 756 22.04% 77.96% 9.00%
HD143 7,588 20,773 876 26.76% 73.24% 14.57%
HD144 9,133 14,084 600 39.34% 60.66% 13.35%
HD145 9,994 22,398 1,074 30.85% 69.15% 13.45%
HD146 8,552 34,330 1,244 19.94% 80.06% 11.49%
HD147 10,860 43,432 1,589 20.00% 80.00% 11.12%
HD148 16,924 29,752 2,189 36.26% 63.74% 14.17%
HD149 14,398 24,291 984 37.21% 62.79% 13.23%
HD150 42,017 28,012 1,646 60.00% 40.00% 10.40%
Crim Ct 9
Dist Rep Dem None Rep% Dem% Under%
======================================================
HD126 29,830 24,865 1,537 54.54% 45.46% 12.31%
HD127 42,199 25,096 1,815 62.71% 37.29% 11.67%
HD128 35,154 16,210 1,306 68.44% 31.56% 11.98%
HD129 36,365 27,045 2,278 57.35% 42.65% 13.78%
HD130 52,079 23,117 1,896 69.26% 30.74% 11.41%
HD131 6,169 35,441 936 14.83% 85.17% 10.96%
HD132 33,179 32,735 1,459 50.34% 49.66% 10.99%
HD133 41,803 27,603 3,148 60.23% 39.77% 14.85%
HD134 39,653 46,022 5,296 46.28% 53.72% 16.08%
HD135 27,110 28,157 1,443 49.05% 50.95% 12.13%
HD137 7,498 16,405 750 31.37% 68.63% 13.90%
HD138 23,827 23,757 1,626 50.07% 49.93% 14.23%
HD139 10,811 35,768 1,293 23.21% 76.79% 11.99%
HD140 5,379 18,029 644 22.98% 77.02% 15.45%
HD141 4,005 27,279 551 12.80% 87.20% 10.66%
HD142 8,698 30,678 843 22.09% 77.91% 10.03%
HD143 7,576 20,721 940 26.77% 73.23% 15.64%
HD144 9,172 14,023 621 39.54% 60.46% 13.82%
HD145 9,829 22,420 1,215 30.48% 69.52% 15.22%
HD146 8,249 34,479 1,398 19.31% 80.69% 12.92%
HD147 10,283 43,791 1,806 19.02% 80.98% 12.63%
HD148 16,219 30,145 2,500 34.98% 65.02% 16.19%
HD149 14,267 24,365 1,041 36.93% 63.07% 14.00%
HD150 41,803 28,015 1,856 59.87% 40.13% 11.73%
Crim Ct 10
Dist Rep Dem None Rep% Dem% Under%
======================================================
HD126 29,452 25,205 1,574 53.89% 46.11% 12.61%
HD127 41,583 25,678 1,850 61.82% 38.18% 11.90%
HD128 34,899 16,440 1,331 67.98% 32.02% 12.21%
HD129 35,939 27,475 2,275 56.67% 43.33% 13.77%
HD130 51,686 23,502 1,905 68.74% 31.26% 11.46%
HD131 5,983 35,592 971 14.39% 85.61% 11.37%
HD132 32,929 32,966 1,478 49.97% 50.03% 11.13%
HD133 41,082 28,334 3,138 59.18% 40.82% 14.80%
HD134 38,613 47,031 5,328 45.09% 54.91% 16.18%
HD135 26,847 28,401 1,461 48.59% 51.41% 12.28%
HD137 7,324 16,567 762 30.66% 69.34% 14.13%
HD138 23,483 24,083 1,644 49.37% 50.63% 14.39%
HD139 10,567 35,974 1,330 22.70% 77.30% 12.33%
HD140 5,243 18,158 648 22.41% 77.59% 15.55%
HD141 3,929 27,329 576 12.57% 87.43% 11.15%
HD142 8,543 30,818 858 21.70% 78.30% 10.21%
HD143 7,390 20,879 967 26.14% 73.86% 16.08%
HD144 8,991 14,211 615 38.75% 61.25% 13.69%
HD145 9,670 22,571 1,224 29.99% 70.01% 15.33%
HD146 8,056 34,654 1,415 18.86% 81.14% 13.07%
HD147 10,087 43,932 1,861 18.67% 81.33% 13.02%
HD148 15,808 30,508 2,547 34.13% 65.87% 16.49%
HD149 14,075 24,529 1,068 36.46% 63.54% 14.36%
HD150 41,459 28,345 1,871 59.39% 40.61% 11.82%
Probate Court 4
Dist Rep Dem None Rep% Dem% Under%
======================================================
HD126 30,387 24,311 1,532 55.55% 44.45% 12.27%
HD127 42,669 24,596 1,844 63.43% 36.57% 11.86%
HD128 35,440 15,919 1,311 69.00% 31.00% 12.03%
HD129 37,372 26,067 2,250 58.91% 41.09% 13.61%
HD130 52,671 22,515 1,906 70.05% 29.95% 11.47%
HD131 6,425 35,169 953 15.45% 84.55% 11.16%
HD132 33,759 32,171 1,444 51.20% 48.80% 10.88%
HD133 43,453 26,046 3,056 62.52% 37.48% 14.41%
HD134 42,830 43,007 5,134 49.90% 50.10% 15.59%
HD135 27,621 27,648 1,440 49.98% 50.02% 12.10%
HD137 7,696 16,214 744 32.19% 67.81% 13.79%
HD138 24,436 23,142 1,631 51.36% 48.64% 14.27%
HD139 11,236 35,313 1,324 24.14% 75.86% 12.27%
HD140 5,474 17,937 640 23.38% 76.62% 15.36%
HD141 4,126 27,136 571 13.20% 86.80% 11.05%
HD142 8,912 30,439 867 22.65% 77.35% 10.32%
HD143 7,680 20,605 952 27.15% 72.85% 15.83%
HD144 9,248 13,948 621 39.87% 60.13% 13.82%
HD145 10,235 21,997 1,231 31.75% 68.25% 15.42%
HD146 8,760 33,962 1,404 20.50% 79.50% 12.97%
HD147 11,217 42,809 1,851 20.76% 79.24% 12.95%
HD148 17,153 29,185 2,525 37.02% 62.98% 16.35%
HD149 14,556 24,074 1,042 37.68% 62.32% 14.01%
HD150 42,460 27,401 1,815 60.78% 39.22% 11.47%
As before the undervote rate is calculated by subtracting out the straight ticket votes from the total turnout in each district, so the percentage is (undervotes) / (non-straight ticket votes). There are three things to note here.
1. Three strong Democratic districts, HDs 131, 141, and 142, are consistently among those with the lowest undervote rates. Two strong Republican districts, HDs 129 and 133, are consistently among those with the highest undervote rates. There are also Democratic districts (HDs 140, 143, 145, 148) with high undervote rates, and Republican districts (HDs 126, 127, 128, 130, 150) with low undervote rates. The message is mixed.
2. If we zoom in on the most even districts – HDs 132, 134, 135, and 138 – we see that as we move from the races with overall low undervote rates to the races with the overall high undervote rates, the Democratic percentages in these districts increased in two of the three races. This is also the case for Democratic majority districts – look at HDs 144, 145, 146, and 147, for example. In other words, the voters that are dropping off are for the most part not those that are voting for Democratic judicial candidates.
3. Pulling back out to the bigger picture, the total number of votes affected here is really small. Look at HD148, one of the highest-undervote districts. The total number of undervotes there ranges from 2,189 to 2,545, a difference of 356 votes. As I said weeks ago, the range of undervotes in these judicial races is something like 31K to 36K, so maybe about five thousand more people drop off at the bottom of the ballot than in the middle, where we start voting for judicial candidates. That’s not a lot of votes! The Democratic judicial candidates in 2018 all won by at least 100K votes. The closest judicial race in 2016 was decided by 23K votes. You’d need to have a really big dropoff rate and a really big partisan differential for there to be a chance this could have an effect. There is zero evidence for either of these.
Now look, I admit that I am not a Professional Political Scientist. If I were, I’d probably being doing linear regressions or other fancy mathematical analyses to try to rigorously tease out possible correlations. I’m just a lowlife blogger fooling around in Excel while I watch the Texans game. But again, that’s my whole point about these ridiculous claims about “voter fatigue” and “Republican voters are more committed”, which is SHOW ME THE FRICKING EVIDENCE FOR THESE CLAIMS. I’m doing my amateur-level best to try and find it, and I can’t. If anything, I’m finding evidence for the opposite. Prove me wrong! I double dog dare you!
Anyway. I still have one last post on this topic, then I will go back to looking at precinct data in the way you’re more used to me looking at it. I hope you have found this useful.
Each party has time to educate voters about finishing the ballot. As far as 2018 midterm election, change came in the urban counties especially in the suburbs.
Houston is so…
desperate for leadership they are still begging me to run in at-large 5.
I could run in district h because we know karla cisneros has no bipartisan ideas for the low-income community she serves.
Her time on the houston isd board was a joke.