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Ridiculously early Quinnipiac poll: Trump has a small lead

Consider this to be for entertainment purposes only.

In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. President Trump leads other possible Democratic contenders by small margins.

Hypothetical matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:

  • President Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to Biden’s 46 percent, including 46 percent of independent voters;
  • Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to Sanders’ 45 percent, including 48 percent of independent voters;
  • Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to O’Rourke’s 46 percent, including 48 percent of independent voters.

Trump has leads, driven mainly by a shift among independent voters, over other possible Democratic candidates:

  • 46 – 41 percent over former San Antonio Mayor and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro;
  • 48 – 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California;
  • 48 – 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Biden, Sanders and O’Rourke share similar support among Democrats and voters 18 – 34 years old.

“The 2020 presidential race in Texas, and how some of Democrats stack up against President Donald Trump, begins as a two-tiered contest. There are three more well-known contenders who run evenly against President Donald Trump. Another group, less well-known, are just a little behind Trump,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Former Vice President Joe Biden has the highest favorability of any of the contenders and has a better net favorability than President Trump,” Brown added. “Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke also does relatively well on favorability and in a matchup with Trump, but that may well be due to O’Rourke being a home-state favorite.

“But former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, who is also a former San Antonio mayor, does not do as well as O’Rourke.”

Among Texas voters, 47 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, with 49 percent unfavorable. Favorability ratings for possible Democratic challengers are:

  • Biden: 48 – 38 percent;
  • Sanders: Negative 41 – 47 percent;
  • O’Rourke: Divided 44 – 40 percent;
  • Harris: Negative 24 – 33 percent;
  • Warren: Negative 27 – 42 percent;
  • Castro: Divided 23 – 27 percent;
  • U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey: 51 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion;
  • Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg: 53 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion;
  • U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 68 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion;
  • U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 70 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.

Texas Senate Race

In an early look at the 2020 U.S. Senate race in Texas, Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and possible Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke are tied 46 – 46 percent. Independent voters go to O’Rourke 47 – 40 percent.

From February 20 – 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,222 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect.

I’m gonna bullet-point this one:

– It’s ridiculously early. Don’t overthink this.

– Differences between the top three Dems and everyone else is at least 95% about name recognition and nothing else.

– We just don’t have any polls from similar time frames to compare to. The earliest polls from the 2016 and 2012 cycles that I tracked were from the actual election years, mostly after the nominees had been settled. More than a year later in the cycle from where we are now, in other words.

– That said, the high level of responses is interesting, and probably reflects the fact that basically everyone has an opinion about Donald Trump. In that sense, the dynamic is more like 2012, which was also a Presidential re-election year. Look at the numbers on the right sidebar for 2012, and you’ll see that there were very few “undecided” or “other” respondents. If that is a valid basis for comparison, then Trump starts out at least a couple of points behind Mitt Romney. Given that Romney wound up at 57%, that’s not necessarily a bad place for him to be. Romney also never polled below fifty percent, so there’s that. Again, it’s stupid early. Don’t overthink this.

– There are reports now that Beto will not be running for Senate, in which case we can ignore those numbers even more. I’ll wait till I see the words from Beto himself, but to be sure he’s not talked much if at all about running for Senate again, so this seems credible to me. Without Beto in the race, if that is indeed the case, Cornyn will probably poll a bit better than Trump, at least early on when name recognition is again a factor. In the end, though, I think Cornyn rises and falls with Trump. I can imagine him outperforming Trump by a bit, but not that much. If it’s not Beto against Cornyn, I look forward to seeing who does jump in, and how they poll later on in the cycle.

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22 Comments

  1. Hahahaha

    Keep pushing socialism. Keep pushing a New York Socialist. I hope Sanders wins the nomination.

  2. Manny Barrera says:

    Typical Trump loving response demonstrated by Kubbosh, everything is socialism, watch out for the bogeyman or the bogeywoman, fear, hate, and racism the mantra of the Republican/Trump Party. That party does not stand for anything but fear, hate, and racism, well and making the very rich richer at the expense of the working and men and women that make this country great.

  3. Paul Kubosh says:

    Manny……..you say racism so much it just doesn’t have any meaning when you use it. There is no doubt the Democratic Party has embraced Socialism. It isn’t a Sin being a Socialist. You can be a great guy and a Socialist. This is not a Heaven or Hell issue. I get it you are a Democrat. You carry the party line. That is great. If you are a Socialist that is great also. Just because I laugh at the Socialist perspective doesn’t make me a racist. It just makes me smart. You keep calling me a Republican. That couldn’t be farther from the truth. I can’t stand the elitist mentality of the Republican party. If you could classified my views it would be an Independent, Populist, Conservative. I could never vote for Romney or McCain yes that means I voted for Obama twice. I have never been invited to an event at the River Oaks Country Club but I have been invited to an event at the Red Rooster.

    I am very very entertained watching Cortez in New York. She is hilarious.

    Have a good day.

  4. Jules says:

    Trump is a racist, a con, a cheat. The Republican party and other Trump supporters are his fixer now.

  5. voter_worker says:

    The word “socialism” is taking on mystical qualities for the right heretofore possessed only by “The Wall”. When I think of the US version of socialism, I think of interstate highways, municipal water systems, reservoirs, public parks of all descriptions, airports and ports, EMS, police, public education, the Department of Agriculture’s programs, BLM (the original one), the Department of Defense, Social Security and Medicare…the list could go on but my point is, we’ve had “socialism” in the mix for a very long time but suddenly the right is claiming that the Dems are all in for SOCIALISM as if it were some new, horrible and dastardly thing to be defeated at all costs. It’s just flat out silly. And would somebody here explain to me how Trump’s wall proposal is NOT socialist/statist?

  6. Manny Barrera says:

    Paul you say socialism so much as well as all the other Trump lovers, it has no meaning.

    Paul define conservative.

    There are two things (groups of people) that Republicans/Trump Party, The Christian Right (Taliban mentality that has hates abortion but also hates the child that is born thereafter, and hate of those that sexuality is different), and then you have the racists. That is the core of the Trump/Republican Party.

    The I voted for Obama is that similar to Rep. Mark Meadows bringing out that Black woman to prove that Trump is not a racist. That is the same Mark Meadows that said he was going to send Obama back to Kenya.

    I will give you the Republican short version, they tend to have short attention spans.

    https://youtu.be/_-zeqYtiGq8

  7. Manny Barrera says:

    Voter the wall is a not only socialist but comes close to being communist as they will take people properties against their will.

    But the IQ of the average Trump supporter is not very high or they suddenly become ignorant when it suits them.

  8. Paul Kubosh says:

    Manny….you are blind and insist in disagreeing even when people agree with you. Would you have called me a racist if I would have been here supporting Obama on this blog when he ran? You equate Christianity to the Taliban? You are really full of hate.

  9. Jules says:

    “I’m not a racist bc I voted for Obama” = “Trump isn’t a racist bc he hired this person who you can clearly see is black.”

  10. Bill Daniels says:

    Voter, you’re on the right track, but some of your examples are NOT examples of socialism. A true and perfect example of socialism would be Medicare. A guy who works 40 quarters at a minimum wage job gets the exact same Medicare coverage as someone who maxed out Medicare taxes for 50 years. A guy who worked zero quarters gets even better care with Medicaid.

    Medicaid, food stamps and other direct welfare payments are other examples of socialism.

    The Green New Deal’s guarantee of “economic security to all those who are unable or unwilling to work” is an example of socialism.

    Military, roads, police, fire, and yes, the wall, are not good examples of socialism. Here’s a good article on this subject:

    https://mises.org/library/roads-bridges-and-socialist-capital

  11. Jules says:

    Yes, some Christians are horrible people in the name of Christianity. See the bills Charles posted about yesterday. See the Republicans in Tarrant county who voted on whether or not to oust one of their own bc he was Muslim. How are those bills different from the Sharia law the Tarrant county folks are so afraid of?

  12. C.L. says:

    Paul, you’re a socialist, I’m a socialist, Manny’s a socialist, and Bill’s a socialist because we’re all benefiting from and are party to the (federal, state, local) government taking a portion of our hard earned money and using it to benefit all of the citizenry.

    If you or Michael would like to be instrumental in the elimination of federal taxes or Social Security ‘donations’, Harris County property tax assessments, CoH sales taxes, etc., then I urge you to start on that path. I’m not a fan of driving on pothole-filled streets or utilizing antiquated and fading CoH infrastructure, but with all that extra money in my pocket, I’ll try and make due.

    “Socialism is an economic system where everyone in society equally owns the factors of production. The ownership is acquired through a democratically elected government. It could also be a cooperative or a public corporation where everyone owns shares. The four factors of production are labor, entrepreneurship, capital goods, and natural resources.

    These factors are valued only for their usefulness to people.

    Socialists take into account both individual needs and greater social needs. They allocate resources using central planning, as in a command economy.

    Examples of the greater social needs include transportation, defense, education, health care, and preservation of natural resources. Some also define the common good as caring for those who can’t directly contribute to production. Examples include the elderly, children, and their caretakers.”

  13. C.L. says:

    Re: The death toll from Christians vs. the death toll from Koran-following Taliban followers/fighters…. I’d venture a guess and say way more folks have been killed, historically, in the name of the guy on the cross.

  14. voter_worker says:

    C.L. I would add food on the table to your list, because the actual cost of a stable banking and credit system, scientific research in land grant universities, irrigation water, grazing on federal lands, market support to shield agricultural producers from destruction by market forces, negotiation of international trade deals and the distribution network of ports, waterways, roads and highways has to be shared, otherwise agriculture and grocery stores would not be viable businesses. The notion that all of this could be provided by the invisible hand of the market doesn’t have any real examples to point to in the human historical record. Those countries where these things are missing or not very well deployed are known as the third world.

  15. Manny Barrera says:

    Paul like Bill you are putting words in my mouth that I did not state, I stated the Christian Right, not Christians, there is a difference. Explain how one can care about an unborn child and then not give a shit about the child after birth.

    I don’t know about you and Obama, as I never thought much about him, but he is a hell of lot better than the Russian Cheeto that sits in the White House. For one thing he was honest and imagine not a single person from his administration or campaign was indicted, imagine that.

    But I will give you the benefit of the doubt the way your god, Trump did. They send their murders, they send rapists, they send drug dealers, I assume some may be good.

    Well I will assume that some Trump supporter may be good.

    Oh and those good Christians just about wiped out the Native Americans in this country, after all they were not really humans just like the African Slaves were not really human.

  16. Kevin Hayden says:

    Name recognition, yes. Misogyny, yes. And they neglected to ask how all of them fare against the likely GOP candidate, Pence or Kasich.

  17. Manny Barrera says:

    Bill did you read the article, did you understand?

    From that article;

    Furthermore, within a private property order, capital is an asset. That is because the capital ultimately produces the consumer goods that provide profits to the entrepreneurs, and it is here where the owners of capital goods have an incentive to keep capital in good repair.

    Under socialism, as I have argued elsewhere, capital becomes a liability, not an asset. That is because capital brings no income to its owners; once it is established, it is just another good that needs to be maintained. That is why the communist nations seemed to be in a time warp, as socialist authorities had no reason to modernize or even maintain capital beyond minimal standards.

    He made an argument that we should pay for the use of roads and bridges, because someone that stands to gain monetary profit would keep the bridge in repair (5 people died when the bridge collapsed. The Republican governor had refused to increase the gas tax even thought they knew that roads and bridges needed repair.

    He further made the argument that bridges and roads paid by taxpayers money taken from all is socialism.

  18. Manny Barrera says:

    Paul, using the same label over and over and over is effective with many, they had you convinced that Hillary Clinton was more corrupt than Trump, so it works with some people.

  19. Joel says:

    “I’ll wait till I see the words from Beto himself, but to be sure he’s not talked much if at all about running for Senate again, so this seems credible to me.

    i believe he announced just yesterday that he is definitely NOT running for senate, explaining that he wanted the others to know it was fine to jump in.

  20. Tom in Lazybrook says:

    By my calculations the Dems start off with around 4,500,000 votes and the Republicans around 4,800,000 in 2020. That includes slightly higher turnout and margin for the Dems in large metros, the loss of around 40k of Trump margin due to age factors, and the Dems getting two thirds of third party voters.

    300,000 is probably attainable. A third of it probably can be generated from new transplants to Texas in the last 2 years.

    Trump is favored in Texas. But a Dem taking Texas is completely doable.

  21. Manny Barrera says:

    Agree with you Tom, Trump has a 41% approval rating in Texas. The way thinks look like now Trump will lose bigly in 2020, assuming he is not in jail or decides not run because he does not want to be in jail (deal).

  22. J says:

    I like the part where the portly guys who get by on government funds think they’ll do well in the state of nature.