We had two Presidential polls drop on Thursday. Here’s the first, I’ll do the second for tomorrow.
President Donald Trump would beat former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas by 4 percentage points if the election were held today, according to a new poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project.
The Republican incumbent’s narrow lead four months before the election suggests Texas, a state where no Democratic presidential candidate has prevailed since 1976, is competitive in 2020.
The poll found 48% of Texas registered voters support Trump, while 44% support Biden. Partisans are sticking with their nominees at this point, with 91% of Republicans saying they’d vote for Trump and 93% of Democrats supporting Biden. Among self-identified independent voters, Trump holds a 41-27 edge over his challenger.
Men favor Trump, 53-41, while women favor Biden, 48-43. Among white voters, 59% favor Trump, while 79% of Black voters favor Biden. Among Hispanic voters, Biden holds a 46-39 edge.
Republican candidates haven’t lost a presidential race in Texas in four decades. Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points in 2016 in the closest race since Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton here by 4.9 points in 1996. The biggest Texas winners over 40 years were Ronald Reagan (27.5 percentage points in 1984) and George W. Bush, the former Texas governor who won both his 2000 and 2004 contests by margins of more than 21 points.
Voters are split on the job Trump is doing as president, with 46% giving him good marks — a group that includes 85% approval among Republicans. Slightly more, 48%, say they disapprove of the president’s job performance, including 93% of Democrats. In a University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll a year ago, 52% approved of Trump’s performance while 44% did not.
A high level view of the poll data is here; we don’t get full questions and crosstabs. The UT/Trib poll subsamples are often wonky, so don’t pay too much attention to the Black and Hispanic numbers. The April UT/Trib poll had Trump leading 49-44. Of the eleven (now 12, counting the one for tomorrow) poll results we’ve had since Biden became the Dem nominee, only three have shown Trump leading by more than two points, and two of those three are UT/Trib polls. Trump’s 48% “vote for” number is also higher than his 46% approval number, which is a relatively rare thing for him; I’ve got a post in the works on that but there’s been so damn much news this week I’ve been unable to get to it. Anyway, bottom line is it’s a close race. At this point, that should surprise no one.
People voting for Trump the 1st time, I get. They didn’t know what a disaster he’d be. But 3 1/2 years later, there is no excuse to still support this guy, these people have no morals whatsoever….SAD
The Texas GOP has decided to go with an in-person state convention.
https://www.reformaustin.org/coronavirus/texas-gop-affirms-plans-for-in-person-state-convention/
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People who voted for Trump the first time is no secret, there will be a fewer this time around, but the groups he appealed to, the racists, the bigots, and the religious intolerant will stick with their hate for others.
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