Part 1 – Counties around Harris
Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant
Part 3 – Counties around Travis
Part 4 – Counties around Bexar
The next three entries in this series will look at regions, and counties of interest within them. For the sake of simplicity, I’ve labeled these regions East Texas, Central Texas, and West Texas, though in a strict sense some of the counties I’m including in them would be called something else – Jefferson County, for example, is usually considered Southeast Texas. Try not to take that too seriously, and just assume I’ve split the state into three vertical sections.
Within those sections I’ve identified counties that have enough voters in them to be worthwhile. Again, this is all arbitrary, but I’ve generally aimed for places with cities or other features of interest. We begin with East Texas:
County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift
=========================================================================
Angelina 20,303 7,834 21,668 7,538 25,070 9,136 -3,465
Bowie 24,869 10,196 24,924 8,838 27,053 10,692 -1,688
Gregg 28,742 12,398 28,764 11,677 32,352 14,657 -1,351
Hardin 17,746 3,359 19,606 2,780 23,806 3,449 -5,970
Harrison 17,512 8,456 18,749 7,151 21,318 7,812 -4,450
Henderson 21,231 6,106 23,650 5,669 28,816 7,048 -6,643
Hunt 21,011 6,671 23,910 6,396 29,135 8,879 -5,916
Jefferson 43,242 44,668 42,862 42,443 47,535 46,022 -2,959
Nacogdoches 13,925 6,465 14,771 6,846 17,359 8,989 -910
Orange 23,366 6,800 25,513 5,735 29,170 6,354 -6,250
Smith 57,331 21,456 58,930 22,300 68,546 29,343 -3,328
Van Zandt 15,794 3,084 18,473 2,799 22,126 3,419 -5,997
Walker 12,140 6,252 12,884 6,091 15,368 7,875 -1,605
As you might imagine this is not friendly territory for Democrats, and it’s getting less so as we go along. These counties are pretty small for the most part, but they contribute a lot of votes to the Republicans’ bottom line. Just since 2012, that gap has grown by more than 50K in the GOP direction. This is the point I’ve been trying to make lately, because while it may seem easy to write off this part of the state, these counties collectively pack a real punch. Look again at that Michael Li chart I embedded in this post about where the vote comes from in Texas. We can either do something to reduce the growing gap we face in the smaller counties, or we can accept the fact that the hill we’re pushing this boulder up gets steeper every cycle.
Let me remind you, there are cities and metro areas in these counties. You know that Jefferson County is home to Beaumont, and Smith County is Tyler. Other cities include:
Angelina County – Lufkin
Bowie County – Texarkana
Gregg County – Longview
Harrison County – Marshall
Nacogdoches County – Nacogdoches, home of Stephen F. Austin State University
Walker County – Huntsville, home of Sam Houston State University
I see three avenues to improve performance in this part of the state. One is as I’ve noted several times an effort to organize and build infrastructure in the smaller cities in Texas. We know what we can do in the big urban areas, and the formerly-small towns that are now part of big urban areas – think of places like Katy and Sugar Land – are increasingly strong for Dems. I believe the potential exists in the smaller cities that are not proximate to the big urban areas, and that more effort needs to be made, and more resources provided, to help them reach that potential. It has to be organic to these cities – surely, a helicopter drop of volunteers and/or paid staffers from Houston and Austin would not be received very well. I know the TDP has done some work along these lines, I’m just saying we need to continue it.
Second, there are as noted above universities in some of these towns. Anything we can do to grow the Democratic student groups and help them register and turn out voters is well worth it.
Finally, we can take a page from Stacy Abrams’ playbook and recognize that there’s a substantial Black population in some of these counties, and get to registering and organizing and empowering them in local and state politics. To wit:
Jefferson – 33.7% Black
Harrison – 24.0% Black
Walker – 23.9% Black
Bowie – 23.4% Black
Gregg – 19.9% Black
Smith – 17.9% Black
Nacogdoches – 16.7% Black
Angelina – 14.2% Black
All that is from those Wikipedia pages I linked above. I will freely admit here that I don’t know what is already in place in these counties – maybe we’re already doing all we can. I kind of doubt it, though.
Again, my bottom line is that we make an effort to narrow the gap in these places, or at least keep that gap from growing ever wider, or we make the task we’re already working on in the big counties that much harder. I’m not saying any of this will be easy, but I am saying we can’t shrug it off because it might be hard. This is the choice we face.
It’s hard to watch Jefferson county flip red. Along with the presidency, there are likely lots of down ballot county officials that are losing too.
I think there is some upside in Tyler-Longview but it will take a ton of work. We just need to improve and narrow the gap as Kuff is saying. Hope Julie Gobble stays in politics. Glad she stuck her neck out there versus wingnut Matt Schaefer in HD6. Too many empower texas supporters plus trust fund country clubbers for Dems to make real gains in this area.
It’s a shame what has happened to counties like Van Zandt. Voted for Clinton in 96, and state Dems like David Cain and Bob Glaze used to carry it even in 2000 with Bush on the ballot. Most of the local elected Dems retired by 2004 or lost. Now we’re lucky to get to 15% in that county.
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