Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
We’re going to take a look at the seven statewide judicial races in this post, with all of the districts considered so far grouped together. You’re about to have a lot of numbers thrown at you, is what I’m saying. I’m ordering these races in a particular way, which is to put the contests that included a Libertarian candidate first (there were no Green candidates for any statewide judicial position, or indeed any judicial position on the Harris County ballot), and then the contests that were straight up D versus R next. There were three of the former and four of the latter, and we’ll see what we can determine about the effect that a Libertarian may have had on these races as we go.
Dist Hecht Meachum Lib Hecht% Meachum% Lib%
=====================================================
CD02 179,887 154,785 7,979 52.50% 45.17% 2.33%
CD07 154,058 149,348 6,725 49.68% 48.16% 2.17%
CD08 25,686 15,145 1,014 61.38% 36.19% 2.42%
CD09 37,479 119,471 3,516 23.36% 74.45% 2.19%
CD10 101,965 60,290 3,917 61.36% 36.28% 2.36%
CD18 58,684 179,178 5,906 24.07% 73.50% 2.42%
CD22 21,575 20,271 1,140 50.19% 47.16% 2.65%
CD29 48,349 101,662 4,049 31.38% 65.99% 2.63%
CD36 82,593 48,435 3,259 61.50% 36.07% 2.43%
HD126 38,883 33,427 1,726 52.52% 45.15% 2.33%
HD127 53,978 35,464 2,040 59.00% 38.77% 2.23%
HD128 48,000 22,103 1,606 66.94% 30.82% 2.24%
HD129 47,867 35,292 2,208 56.07% 41.34% 2.59%
HD130 69,884 32,443 2,440 66.70% 30.97% 2.33%
HD131 9,887 44,240 1,236 17.86% 79.91% 2.23%
HD132 50,149 48,527 2,544 49.54% 47.94% 2.51%
HD133 51,732 35,958 1,730 57.85% 40.21% 1.93%
HD134 50,646 56,804 2,018 46.27% 51.89% 1.84%
HD135 36,285 36,987 1,891 48.28% 49.21% 2.52%
HD137 10,333 20,930 827 32.20% 65.22% 2.58%
HD138 31,730 30,982 1,548 49.38% 48.21% 2.41%
HD139 15,475 44,630 1,365 25.17% 72.60% 2.22%
HD140 9,151 21,719 840 28.86% 68.49% 2.65%
HD141 6,824 35,967 981 15.59% 82.17% 2.24%
HD142 13,637 41,662 1,238 24.12% 73.69% 2.19%
HD143 11,821 24,338 938 31.87% 65.61% 2.53%
HD144 13,535 16,631 867 43.61% 53.59% 2.79%
HD145 14,758 26,918 1,255 34.38% 62.70% 2.92%
HD146 11,363 43,152 1,235 20.38% 77.40% 2.22%
HD147 14,973 53,050 1,799 21.44% 75.98% 2.58%
HD148 22,163 36,851 1,701 36.50% 60.70% 2.80%
HD149 21,616 30,814 1,133 40.36% 57.53% 2.12%
HD150 55,585 39,695 2,339 56.94% 40.66% 2.40%
CC1 92,529 278,828 8,580 24.35% 73.39% 2.26%
CC2 149,483 145,171 7,746 49.43% 48.01% 2.56%
CC3 228,402 210,197 10,006 50.91% 46.86% 2.23%
CC4 239,862 214,392 11,173 51.54% 46.06% 2.40%
JP1 93,898 163,620 6,237 35.60% 62.03% 2.36%
JP2 33,762 49,003 2,174 39.75% 57.69% 2.56%
JP3 51,276 68,138 2,733 41.98% 55.78% 2.24%
JP4 233,213 185,525 9,970 54.40% 43.28% 2.33%
JP5 204,389 214,695 9,945 47.64% 50.04% 2.32%
JP6 7,834 27,042 1,074 21.79% 75.22% 2.99%
JP7 18,495 99,632 2,600 15.32% 82.53% 2.15%
JP8 67,409 40,933 2,772 60.67% 36.84% 2.49%
Dist Boyd Williams Lib Boyd%Williams% Lib%
=====================================================
CD02 177,810 155,876 7,349 52.14% 45.71% 2.15%
CD07 149,700 152,887 5,923 48.52% 49.56% 1.92%
CD08 25,674 15,116 894 61.59% 36.26% 2.14%
CD09 37,235 120,311 2,810 23.22% 75.03% 1.75%
CD10 101,850 60,145 3,613 61.50% 36.32% 2.18%
CD18 57,552 180,778 5,054 23.65% 74.28% 2.08%
CD22 21,529 20,300 1,030 50.23% 47.36% 2.40%
CD29 48,900 101,209 3,423 31.85% 65.92% 2.23%
CD36 82,368 48,573 2,879 61.55% 36.30% 2.15%
HD126 38,664 33,525 1,557 52.43% 45.46% 2.11%
HD127 53,700 35,556 1,891 58.92% 39.01% 2.07%
HD128 48,078 22,019 1,431 67.22% 30.78% 2.00%
HD129 47,371 35,620 2,000 55.74% 41.91% 2.35%
HD130 69,697 32,424 2,234 66.79% 31.07% 2.14%
HD131 9,814 44,580 937 17.74% 80.57% 1.69%
HD132 50,168 48,466 2,311 49.70% 48.01% 2.29%
HD133 49,946 37,393 1,520 56.21% 42.08% 1.71%
HD134 47,593 59,069 1,938 43.82% 54.39% 1.78%
HD135 36,215 37,075 1,607 48.35% 49.50% 2.15%
HD137 10,226 21,044 708 31.98% 65.81% 2.21%
HD138 31,413 31,231 1,372 49.07% 48.79% 2.14%
HD139 15,293 44,932 1,208 24.89% 73.14% 1.97%
HD140 9,270 21,715 677 29.28% 68.58% 2.14%
HD141 6,943 36,106 738 15.86% 82.46% 1.69%
HD142 13,649 41,816 1,006 24.17% 74.05% 1.78%
HD143 11,953 24,211 783 32.35% 65.53% 2.12%
HD144 13,712 16,444 757 44.36% 53.19% 2.45%
HD145 14,749 26,907 1,082 34.51% 62.96% 2.53%
HD146 10,957 43,683 985 19.70% 78.53% 1.77%
HD147 14,628 53,564 1,547 20.98% 76.81% 2.22%
HD148 21,551 37,172 1,616 35.72% 61.61% 2.68%
HD149 21,554 30,949 980 40.30% 57.87% 1.83%
HD150 55,473 39,693 2,090 57.04% 40.81% 2.15%
CC1 90,441 281,651 7,183 23.85% 74.26% 1.89%
CC2 149,519 144,951 6,793 49.63% 48.11% 2.25%
CC3 224,732 213,022 8,935 50.31% 47.69% 2.00%
CC4 237,926 215,574 10,064 51.33% 46.50% 2.17%
JP1 90,471 166,282 5,724 34.47% 63.35% 2.18%
JP2 33,968 48,891 1,877 40.09% 57.70% 2.22%
JP3 51,567 68,134 2,269 42.28% 55.86% 1.86%
JP4 232,446 185,828 8,942 54.41% 43.50% 2.09%
JP5 201,507 217,080 8,748 47.15% 50.80% 2.05%
JP6 7,848 26,989 935 21.94% 75.45% 2.61%
JP7 17,772 100,858 2,001 14.73% 83.61% 1.66%
JP8 67,039 41,136 2,479 60.58% 37.18% 2.24%
Dist Busby Triana Lib Busby% Triana% Lib%
=====================================================
CD02 180,619 152,062 8,019 53.01% 44.63% 2.35%
CD07 154,593 146,826 6,759 50.16% 47.64% 2.19%
CD08 25,758 14,928 955 61.86% 35.85% 2.29%
CD09 37,362 119,463 3,094 23.36% 74.70% 1.93%
CD10 102,251 59,298 3,908 61.80% 35.84% 2.36%
CD18 58,913 178,629 5,394 24.25% 73.53% 2.22%
CD22 21,575 20,090 1,118 50.43% 46.96% 2.61%
CD29 47,694 102,644 3,275 31.05% 66.82% 2.13%
CD36 82,901 47,695 3,069 62.02% 35.68% 2.30%
HD126 38,980 33,040 1,658 52.91% 44.84% 2.25%
HD127 54,112 34,934 2,025 59.42% 38.36% 2.22%
HD128 48,180 21,765 1,477 67.46% 30.47% 2.07%
HD129 47,955 34,683 2,230 56.51% 40.87% 2.63%
HD130 70,019 31,790 2,447 67.16% 30.49% 2.35%
HD131 9,827 44,382 1,012 17.80% 80.37% 1.83%
HD132 50,189 48,200 2,493 49.75% 47.78% 2.47%
HD133 51,870 35,055 1,814 58.45% 39.50% 2.04%
HD134 51,239 55,036 2,250 47.21% 50.71% 2.07%
HD135 36,361 36,664 1,790 48.60% 49.01% 2.39%
HD137 10,325 20,780 812 32.35% 65.11% 2.54%
HD138 31,761 30,656 1,497 49.69% 47.96% 2.34%
HD139 15,489 44,606 1,222 25.26% 72.75% 1.99%
HD140 8,987 21,995 659 28.40% 69.51% 2.08%
HD141 6,791 36,116 798 15.54% 82.64% 1.83%
HD142 13,605 41,732 1,042 24.13% 74.02% 1.85%
HD143 11,665 24,588 733 31.54% 66.48% 1.98%
HD144 13,471 16,721 744 43.54% 54.05% 2.40%
HD145 14,593 27,092 1,061 34.14% 63.38% 2.48%
HD146 11,412 42,928 1,129 20.57% 77.39% 2.04%
HD147 15,183 52,758 1,661 21.81% 75.80% 2.39%
HD148 22,402 36,229 1,688 37.14% 60.06% 2.80%
HD149 21,574 30,729 1,065 40.42% 57.58% 2.00%
HD150 55,675 39,155 2,284 57.33% 40.32% 2.35%
CC1 92,822 277,923 7,778 24.52% 73.42% 2.05%
CC2 149,446 144,793 6,922 49.62% 48.08% 2.30%
CC3 228,849 207,334 9,987 51.29% 46.47% 2.24%
CC4 240,549 211,588 10,904 51.95% 45.70% 2.35%
JP1 94,735 161,383 6,127 36.12% 61.54% 2.34%
JP2 33,518 49,255 1,882 39.59% 58.18% 2.22%
JP3 51,327 68,119 2,341 42.14% 55.93% 1.92%
JP4 233,635 183,442 9,668 54.75% 42.99% 2.27%
JP5 204,626 212,437 9,722 47.95% 49.78% 2.28%
JP6 7,711 27,250 875 21.52% 76.04% 2.44%
JP7 18,508 99,518 2,270 15.39% 82.73% 1.89%
JP8 67,606 40,234 2,706 61.16% 36.40% 2.45%
Dist Bland Cheng Bland% Cheng%
=======================================
CD02 186,706 154,725 54.68% 45.32%
CD07 159,574 149,326 51.66% 48.34%
CD08 26,540 15,186 63.61% 36.39%
CD09 39,465 120,736 24.63% 75.37%
CD10 105,349 60,323 63.59% 36.41%
CD18 62,985 180,105 25.91% 74.09%
CD22 22,415 20,441 52.30% 47.70%
CD29 51,670 102,080 33.61% 66.39%
CD36 85,490 48,367 63.87% 36.13%
HD126 40,209 33,586 54.49% 45.51%
HD127 55,788 35,414 61.17% 38.83%
HD128 49,423 22,087 69.11% 30.89%
HD129 49,640 35,394 58.38% 41.62%
HD130 71,946 32,493 68.89% 31.11%
HD131 10,622 44,674 19.21% 80.79%
HD132 52,183 48,781 51.68% 48.32%
HD133 53,308 35,720 59.88% 40.12%
HD134 52,985 55,899 48.66% 51.34%
HD135 37,544 37,368 50.12% 49.88%
HD137 10,776 21,212 33.69% 66.31%
HD138 32,815 31,243 51.23% 48.77%
HD139 16,488 44,881 26.87% 73.13%
HD140 9,808 21,860 30.97% 69.03%
HD141 7,537 36,159 17.25% 82.75%
HD142 14,573 41,837 25.83% 74.17%
HD143 12,622 24,375 34.12% 65.88%
HD144 14,320 16,647 46.24% 53.76%
HD145 15,721 27,079 36.73% 63.27%
HD146 12,136 43,482 21.82% 78.18%
HD147 16,299 53,306 23.42% 76.58%
HD148 23,760 36,701 39.30% 60.70%
HD149 22,218 31,229 41.57% 58.43%
HD150 57,472 39,861 59.05% 40.95%
CC1 98,928 280,012 26.11% 73.89%
CC2 156,101 145,437 51.77% 48.23%
CC3 236,143 210,982 52.81% 47.19%
CC4 249,022 214,861 53.68% 46.32%
JP1 99,802 162,942 37.98% 62.02%
JP2 35,454 49,274 41.84% 58.16%
JP3 53,615 68,275 43.99% 56.01%
JP4 241,226 186,223 56.43% 43.57%
JP5 211,577 216,054 49.48% 50.52%
JP6 8,598 27,274 23.97% 76.03%
JP7 20,093 100,384 16.68% 83.32%
JP8 69,829 40,866 63.08% 36.92%
Dist BertR Frizell BertR% Frizell%
=======================================
CD02 182,683 156,878 53.80% 46.20%
CD07 154,962 152,062 50.47% 49.53%
CD08 26,171 15,356 63.02% 36.98%
CD09 38,285 121,530 23.96% 76.04%
CD10 103,856 61,112 62.96% 37.04%
CD18 60,147 182,281 24.81% 75.19%
CD22 22,094 20,602 51.75% 48.25%
CD29 49,588 103,742 32.34% 67.66%
CD36 84,033 49,223 63.06% 36.94%
HD126 39,527 33,961 53.79% 46.21%
HD127 54,907 35,913 60.46% 39.54%
HD128 48,755 22,498 68.43% 31.57%
HD129 48,845 35,746 57.74% 42.26%
HD130 71,099 32,881 68.38% 31.62%
HD131 10,143 45,055 18.38% 81.62%
HD132 51,129 49,476 50.82% 49.18%
HD133 51,832 36,580 58.63% 41.37%
HD134 50,395 57,371 46.76% 53.24%
HD135 36,941 37,669 49.51% 50.49%
HD137 10,540 21,336 33.07% 66.93%
HD138 32,162 31,590 50.45% 49.55%
HD139 15,861 45,360 25.91% 74.09%
HD140 9,330 22,296 29.50% 70.50%
HD141 7,087 36,609 16.22% 83.78%
HD142 14,019 42,335 24.88% 75.12%
HD143 12,089 24,821 32.75% 67.25%
HD144 13,871 17,022 44.90% 55.10%
HD145 15,087 27,539 35.39% 64.61%
HD146 11,553 43,886 20.84% 79.16%
HD147 15,480 53,890 22.32% 77.68%
HD148 22,624 37,382 37.70% 62.30%
HD149 21,970 31,301 41.24% 58.76%
HD150 56,572 40,268 58.42% 41.58%
CC1 94,471 283,329 25.01% 74.99%
CC2 152,430 147,946 50.75% 49.25%
CC3 231,007 213,789 51.94% 48.06%
CC4 243,911 217,725 52.84% 47.16%
JP1 94,825 166,188 36.33% 63.67%
JP2 34,572 49,950 40.90% 59.10%
JP3 52,322 69,282 43.03% 56.97%
JP4 237,425 188,270 55.77% 44.23%
JP5 207,011 218,653 48.63% 51.37%
JP6 8,115 27,625 22.71% 77.29%
JP7 18,911 101,267 15.74% 84.26%
JP8 68,638 41,554 62.29% 37.71%
Dist Yeary Clinton Yeary% Clinton%
=======================================
CD02 181,198 157,995 53.42% 46.58%
CD07 151,549 154,946 49.45% 50.55%
CD08 26,274 15,252 63.27% 36.73%
CD09 38,213 121,550 23.92% 76.08%
CD10 103,978 60,908 63.06% 36.94%
CD18 59,656 182,560 24.63% 75.37%
CD22 21,975 20,676 51.52% 48.48%
CD29 50,071 103,069 32.70% 67.30%
CD36 83,847 49,311 62.97% 37.03%
HD126 39,406 34,008 53.68% 46.32%
HD127 54,799 35,974 60.37% 39.63%
HD128 48,866 22,330 68.64% 31.36%
HD129 48,336 36,186 57.19% 42.81%
HD130 71,143 32,784 68.45% 31.55%
HD131 10,107 45,059 18.32% 81.68%
HD132 51,349 49,189 51.07% 48.93%
HD133 50,252 37,973 56.96% 43.04%
HD134 47,809 59,740 44.45% 55.55%
HD135 36,998 37,557 49.63% 50.37%
HD137 10,513 21,328 33.02% 66.98%
HD138 31,954 31,731 50.18% 49.82%
HD139 15,775 45,409 25.78% 74.22%
HD140 9,482 22,099 30.02% 69.98%
HD141 7,189 36,455 16.47% 83.53%
HD142 14,134 42,173 25.10% 74.90%
HD143 12,173 24,673 33.04% 66.96%
HD144 13,989 16,866 45.34% 54.66%
HD145 15,119 27,441 35.52% 64.48%
HD146 11,410 43,976 20.60% 79.40%
HD147 15,255 54,067 22.01% 77.99%
HD148 22,154 37,759 36.98% 63.02%
HD149 21,889 31,344 41.12% 58.88%
HD150 56,659 40,145 58.53% 41.47%
CC1 93,178 284,268 24.69% 75.31%
CC2 152,526 147,534 50.83% 49.17%
CC3 228,374 215,887 51.41% 48.59%
CC4 242,683 218,581 52.61% 47.39%
JP1 92,164 168,445 35.36% 64.64%
JP2 34,638 49,779 41.03% 58.97%
JP3 52,563 68,943 43.26% 56.74%
JP4 237,318 188,099 55.78% 44.22%
JP5 205,042 220,128 48.23% 51.77%
JP6 8,132 27,549 22.79% 77.21%
JP7 18,576 101,549 15.46% 84.54%
JP8 68,328 41,778 62.06% 37.94%
Dist Newell Birm Newell% Birm%
=======================================
CD02 183,283 155,303 54.13% 45.87%
CD07 154,445 151,554 50.47% 49.53%
CD08 26,375 15,075 63.63% 36.37%
CD09 39,055 120,306 24.51% 75.49%
CD10 104,616 60,043 63.53% 36.47%
CD18 61,174 180,645 25.30% 74.70%
CD22 22,249 20,322 52.26% 47.74%
CD29 51,148 101,583 33.49% 66.51%
CD36 84,501 48,451 63.56% 36.44%
HD126 39,784 33,498 54.29% 45.71%
HD127 55,127 35,497 60.83% 39.17%
HD128 49,062 22,055 68.99% 31.01%
HD129 48,920 35,437 57.99% 42.01%
HD130 71,414 32,353 68.82% 31.18%
HD131 10,424 44,586 18.95% 81.05%
HD132 51,878 48,536 51.66% 48.34%
HD133 51,273 36,800 58.22% 41.78%
HD134 49,412 57,931 46.03% 53.97%
HD135 37,337 37,104 50.16% 49.84%
HD137 10,697 21,067 33.68% 66.32%
HD138 32,371 31,165 50.95% 49.05%
HD139 16,204 44,873 26.53% 73.47%
HD140 9,722 21,767 30.87% 69.13%
HD141 7,342 36,259 16.84% 83.16%
HD142 14,466 41,754 25.73% 74.27%
HD143 12,491 24,246 34.00% 66.00%
HD144 14,227 16,561 46.21% 53.79%
HD145 15,377 27,059 36.24% 63.76%
HD146 11,707 43,563 21.18% 78.82%
HD147 15,713 53,487 22.71% 77.29%
HD148 22,748 37,026 38.06% 61.94%
HD149 22,175 30,953 41.74% 58.26%
HD150 56,974 39,704 58.93% 41.07%
CC1 95,668 281,099 25.39% 74.61%
CC2 154,203 145,222 51.50% 48.50%
CC3 231,571 211,887 52.22% 47.78%
CC4 245,404 215,077 53.29% 46.71%
JP1 94,960 165,091 36.52% 63.48%
JP2 35,233 48,975 41.84% 58.16%
JP3 53,108 68,215 43.77% 56.23%
JP4 238,952 185,854 56.25% 43.75%
JP5 208,027 216,365 49.02% 50.98%
JP6 8,409 27,151 23.65% 76.35%
JP7 19,213 100,651 16.03% 83.97%
JP8 68,944 40,983 62.72% 37.28%
Another word about the order in which these races appeared. On the Harris County election returns page, they appeared in the order you’d expect: first was the Supreme Court Chief Justice race, then Places 6, 7, and 8, followed by Court of Criminal Appeals Places 3, 4, and 9. In other words, the order a random person off the streets might have put them in if they had been tasked with it. For whatever the reason, on the Secretary of State election returns page, the order is different: Chief Justice, then Supreme Court Places 8, 6, and 7, followed by CCA Places 4, 9, and 3. I have no idea why they did it this way.
What difference does it make? The answer is in the total number of votes cast. The generally accepted wisdom is that the farther down the ballot, the more likely it is that a voter will skip the race, presumably because they thought “well, that’s all the voting I have in me, I’m going to call it quits now”. This was the underpinning of the many breathless articles about the effect of not having straight ticket voting, which came with the implicit assumption that Democratic voters would have less endurance in them, thus giving Republican candidates farther down the ballot an advantage. You know how I felt about that.
That said, the dropoff effect was there, albeit in a small amount. Here are the turnout totals for each race, going by the order on the Harris County ballot, which I’m taking as the proper order for elsewhere in the state. (You can check other county election sites to check this, I’ve already spent too much time on it.)
Position Statewide Harris
==================================
President 11,315,056 1,640,818
Senate 11,144,040 1,614,525
RRC 11,000,982 1,594,345
SC Chief 10,997,978 1,596,369
SC Place 6 10,954,061 1,591,486
SC Place 7 10,961,811 1,590,486
SC Place 8 10,948,768 1,588,895
CCA Place 3 10,918,384 1,584,608
CCA Place 4 10,898,223 1,583,031
CCA Place 9 10,879,051 1,580,131
I included the other statewide races here for comparison. There is some dropoff, but it’s pretty small – at both the statewide and Harris County level, the last race still got more than 96% of the vote total of the Presidential race. The dropoff among just the state offices is much more minimal, which I can understand – if all you care about is who’s running the country, you’ll probably stop after President, Senate, and Congress, which will be the third race on your ballot. Note also that with one exception in each column, the totals comport with their order on the ballot. Someday I might like to meet the person who decides to get off the bus after voting in three of the four Supreme Court races, or one of the three CCA races. Today is not that day, however.
The other thing to talk about here is how the candidates in races with a Libertarian candidate did versus the ones in races without a Libertarian. My eyeball sense of it is that the Republican candidates in two-person races picked up more of the erstwhile Libertarian voters in the redder districts, and the effect was more diffuse in the Dem districts, but I can’t say that with any level of rigor. There are too many factors to consider, including the gender and race of the candidates and their campaign finances and tenure in office and who knows what else. Maybe someone with a PhD can create a viable model for this.
Beyond that, what we see in these numbers is what we’ve been seeing all along. CD07 was a slightly tougher environment than it was in 2018, with three of the seven Democratic candidates carrying it. CD02 is basically a seven- or eight-point Republican district. HD135 leaned slightly Democratic, while HDs 132 and 138 leaned slightly more Republican, and HD134 completed its journey to becoming a Democratic district. Commissioner Precincts 2, 3, and 4 were all slightly to slightly-more-than-slightly red, but it won’t take much in redistricting to flip that around, at least for precincts 2 and 3. Everyone carried Constable/JP precinct 5, while precinct 4 remains a bit of a stretch. Lather, rinse, repeat.
If you’re wondering why I haven’t included SBOE and State Senate districts in these reports before now, wonder no more. I’ll be delving into those next. Let me know what you think.
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