Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
Statewide judicial
You may be wondering “Hey, how come you haven’t reported on data from SBOE and State Senate districts?” Well, I’ll tell you, since the SBOE and Senate serve four-year terms with only half of the races up for election outside of redistricting years, the results in the districts that aren’t on the ballot are not discernable to me. But! I was eventually able to get a spreadsheet that defined all of the relevant districts for each individual precinct, and that allowed me to go back and fill in the empty values. And now here I present them to you. Oh, and as a special bonus, I merged the data from the 2012 city of Houston bond elections into this year’s totals and pulled out the numbers for the city of Houston for the top races. So here you have it:
Dist Trump Biden Lib Grn Trump% Biden% Lib% Grn%
===================================================================
SBOE4 110,192 350,258 3,530 1,787 23.66% 75.20% 0.76% 0.38%
SBOE6 371,101 391,911 8,796 2,157 47.95% 50.64% 1.14% 0.28%
SBOE8 219,337 176,022 4,493 1,185 54.69% 43.89% 1.12% 0.30%
SD04 55,426 25,561 936 145 67.54% 31.15% 1.14% 0.18%
SD06 61,089 123,708 1,577 770 32.64% 66.10% 0.84% 0.41%
SD07 232,201 188,150 4,746 1,216 54.47% 44.13% 1.11% 0.29%
SD11 77,325 51,561 1,605 389 59.08% 39.40% 1.23% 0.30%
SD13 38,198 166,939 1,474 753 18.42% 80.51% 0.71% 0.36%
SD15 110,485 208,552 3,444 1,045 34.15% 64.46% 1.06% 0.32%
SD17 110,788 140,986 2,706 720 43.41% 55.25% 1.06% 0.28%
SD18 15,118 12,735 331 91 53.47% 45.04% 1.17% 0.32%
Hou 285,379 535,713 8,222 2,704 34.30% 64.39% 0.99% 0.32%
Harris 415,251 382,480 8,597 2,425 51.34% 47.29% 1.06% 0.30%
Dist Cornyn Hegar Lib Grn Cornyn% Hegar% Lib% Grn%
===================================================================
SBOE4 110,002 330,420 8,479 5,155 23.62% 70.94% 1.82% 1.11%
SBOE6 387,726 359,196 13,130 4,964 50.68% 46.95% 1.72% 0.65%
SBOE8 220,500 164,540 7,608 2,770 55.76% 41.61% 1.92% 0.70%
SD04 56,085 23,380 1,405 393 69.02% 28.77% 1.73% 0.48%
SD06 59,310 115,620 3,609 2,257 32.80% 63.95% 2.00% 1.25%
SD07 237,216 173,948 7,682 2,796 55.64% 40.80% 1.80% 0.66%
SD11 77,887 47,787 2,508 854 60.36% 37.03% 1.94% 0.66%
SD13 39,386 157,671 3,502 2,149 19.43% 77.78% 1.73% 1.06%
SD15 114,616 195,264 6,065 2,657 35.43% 60.35% 1.87% 0.82%
SD17 118,460 128,628 3,892 1,603 46.42% 50.40% 1.53% 0.63%
SD18 15,268 11,859 554 180 54.80% 42.56% 1.99% 0.65%
Hou 297,735 498,078 14,537 7,021 36.43% 60.94% 1.78% 0.86%
Harris 420,493 356,080 14,680 5,868 52.75% 44.67% 1.84% 0.74%
Dist Wright Casta Lib Grn Wright% Casta% Lib% Grn%
===================================================================
SBOE4 102,521 332,324 8,247 7,160 22.01% 71.35% 1.77% 1.54%
SBOE6 379,555 347,938 16,311 9,217 50.40% 46.21% 2.17% 1.22%
SBOE8 214,771 163,095 8,573 4,631 54.92% 41.70% 2.19% 1.18%
SD04 54,997 22,915 1,715 685 68.48% 28.53% 2.14% 0.85%
SD06 54,732 118,635 3,389 2,751 30.49% 66.09% 1.89% 1.53%
SD07 232,729 169,832 9,084 4,902 54.59% 39.84% 2.13% 1.15%
SD11 75,580 47,284 2,906 1,454 59.41% 37.17% 2.28% 1.14%
SD13 37,009 156,577 3,653 3,306 18.45% 78.08% 1.82% 1.65%
SD15 111,109 192,351 6,833 4,347 34.34% 59.45% 2.11% 1.34%
SD17 115,654 124,174 4,931 3,219 45.32% 48.66% 1.93% 1.26%
SD18 15,037 11,590 620 344 54.50% 42.01% 2.25% 1.25%
Hou 286,759 491,191 16,625 11,553 34.47% 59.04% 2.00% 1.39%
Harris 410,088 352,168 16,506 9,455 50.71% 43.54% 2.04% 1.17%
Dist Hecht Meachum Lib Hecht% Meachum% Lib%
=====================================================
SBOE4 104,675 334,600 10,745 23.26% 74.35% 2.39%
SBOE6 387,841 349,776 17,294 51.38% 46.33% 2.29%
SBOE8 217,760 164,210 9,466 55.63% 41.95% 2.42%
SD04 55,773 22,920 1,721 69.36% 28.50% 2.14%
SD06 56,313 117,884 4,832 31.45% 65.85% 2.70%
SD07 235,317 172,232 9,800 56.38% 41.27% 2.35%
SD11 77,081 47,122 3,169 60.52% 37.00% 2.49%
SD13 37,495 158,731 4,500 18.68% 79.08% 2.24%
SD15 113,248 194,232 7,612 35.94% 61.64% 2.42%
SD17 119,941 123,630 5,196 48.21% 49.70% 2.09%
SD18 15,108 11,836 675 54.70% 42.85% 2.44%
Dist Boyd Will's Lib Boyd% Will's% Lib%
=====================================================
SBOE4 104,397 336,102 8,832 23.23% 74.80% 1.97%
SBOE6 380,861 354,806 15,618 50.69% 47.23% 2.08%
SBOE8 217,360 164,288 8,525 55.71% 42.11% 2.18%
SD04 55,481 22,982 1,621 69.28% 28.70% 2.02%
SD06 56,932 117,444 4,132 31.89% 65.79% 2.31%
SD07 234,080 173,025 8,683 56.30% 41.61% 2.09%
SD11 76,633 47,377 2,834 60.42% 37.35% 2.23%
SD13 36,755 160,184 3,557 18.33% 79.89% 1.77%
SD15 111,564 195,699 6,798 35.52% 62.31% 2.16%
SD17 116,011 126,731 4,723 46.88% 51.21% 1.91%
SD18 15,162 11,755 627 55.05% 42.68% 2.28%
Dist Busby Triana Lib Busby% Triana% Lib%
=====================================================
SBOE4 104,071 335,587 9,074 23.19% 74.79% 2.02%
SBOE6 389,317 343,673 17,392 51.88% 45.80% 2.32%
SBOE8 218,278 162,376 9,125 56.00% 41.66% 2.34%
SD04 55,864 22,402 1,739 69.83% 28.00% 2.17%
SD06 55,719 118,801 4,006 31.21% 66.55% 2.24%
SD07 235,948 169,843 9,532 56.81% 40.89% 2.30%
SD11 77,324 46,265 3,101 61.03% 36.52% 2.45%
SD13 37,498 158,536 3,962 18.75% 79.27% 1.98%
SD15 113,780 192,651 7,220 36.28% 61.42% 2.30%
SD17 120,435 121,393 5,349 48.72% 49.11% 2.16%
SD18 15,098 11,746 682 54.85% 42.67% 2.48%
Dist Bland Cheng Bland% Cheng%
=======================================
SBOE4 112,465 336,620 25.04% 74.96%
SBOE6 401,946 350,154 53.44% 46.56%
SBOE8 225,783 164,516 57.85% 42.15%
SD04 57,378 22,793 71.57% 28.43%
SD06 60,243 118,418 33.72% 66.28%
SD07 243,089 172,941 58.43% 41.57%
SD11 79,757 47,134 62.85% 37.15%
SD13 40,242 160,069 20.09% 79.91%
SD15 119,474 194,619 38.04% 61.96%
SD17 124,299 123,453 50.17% 49.83%
SD18 15,712 11,864 56.98% 43.02%
Dist BertR Frizell BertR% Frizell%
=======================================
SBOE4 107,445 340,670 23.98% 76.02%
SBOE6 392,514 355,217 52.49% 47.51%
SBOE8 221,860 166,900 57.07% 42.93%
SD04 56,609 23,176 70.95% 29.05%
SD06 57,800 120,402 32.44% 67.56%
SD07 239,113 175,071 57.73% 42.27%
SD11 78,483 47,818 62.14% 37.86%
SD13 38,419 161,433 19.22% 80.78%
SD15 115,389 197,276 36.90% 63.10%
SD17 120,576 125,566 48.99% 51.01%
SD18 15,430 12,046 56.16% 43.84%
Dist Yeary Clinton Yeary%Clinton%
=======================================
SBOE4 107,727 339,999 24.06% 75.94%
SBOE6 387,309 359,489 51.86% 48.14%
SBOE8 221,725 166,780 57.07% 42.93%
SD04 56,405 23,323 70.75% 29.25%
SD06 58,285 119,666 32.75% 67.25%
SD07 238,608 175,225 57.66% 42.34%
SD11 78,085 48,109 61.88% 38.12%
SD13 38,214 161,577 19.13% 80.87%
SD15 114,407 197,949 36.63% 63.37%
SD17 117,277 128,438 47.73% 52.27%
SD18 15,480 11,982 56.37% 43.63%
Dist Newell Birm Newell% Birm%
=======================================
SBOE4 110,449 336,329 24.72% 75.28%
SBOE6 392,944 352,514 52.71% 47.29%
SBOE8 223,453 164,440 57.61% 42.39%
SD04 56,669 22,936 71.19% 28.81%
SD06 59,575 117,944 33.56% 66.44%
SD07 240,463 172,769 58.19% 41.81%
SD11 78,816 47,161 62.56% 37.44%
SD13 39,166 160,126 19.65% 80.35%
SD15 116,700 195,074 37.43% 62.57%
SD17 119,849 125,464 48.86% 51.14%
SD18 15,608 11,810 56.93% 43.07%
To be clear, “Harris” refers to everything that is not the city of Houston. It includes the other cities, like Pasadena and Deer Park and so forth, as well as unincorporated Harris County. There are some municipal results in the 2020 canvass, and maybe I’ll take a closer look at them later – I generally haven’t done that for non-Houston cities in the past, but this year, we’ll see. Please note also that there are some precincts that include a piece of Houston but are not entirely Houston – the boundaries don’t coincide. Basically, I skipped precincts that had ten or fewer votes in them for the highest-turnout 2012 referendum, and added up the rest. So those values are approximate, but close enough for these purposes. I don’t have city of Houston results for most elections, but I do have them for a few. In 2008, Barack Obama got 61.0% in Houston and 39.5% in non-Houston Harris County. In 20122018, Beto reached a new height with 65.4% in Houston; that calculation was done by a reader, and unfortunately he didn’t do the corresponding total for Harris County. Joe Biden’s 64.39% fits in just ahead of Adrian Garcia in 2012, and about a point behind Beto. Not too bad.
SBOE4 is a mostly Black district primarily in Harris County with a piece in Fort Bend as well; Lawrence Allen, son of State Rep. Alma Allen and an unsuccessful candidate for HD26 in the Dem primary this year, is its incumbent. SBOE8 is a heavily Republican district with about half of its voters in Harris County and about a third in Montgomery County. It was won this year by Audrey Young over a Libertarian opponent, succeeding Barbara Cargill. Cargill was unopposed in 2016 and beat a Dem candidate in 2012 by a 71-29 margin, getting about 66% of the vote in Harris County. Like just about everywhere else, that part of the county is a lot less red than it used to be. SBOE6 was of course the focus of attention after Beto carried it in 2018. Biden fell a tad short of Beto’s mark, though Trump also fell short of Ted Cruz. No other Dem managed to win the vote there, with the range being about four to seven points for the Republicans, which does represent an improvement over 2018. Michelle Palmer lost by two points here, getting 47.38% of the vote (there was a Libertarian candidate as well; the victorious Republican got 49.76%), as the Dems won one of the three targeted, Beto-carried seats, in SBOE5. I presume the Republicans will have a plan to make the SBOE a 10-5 split in their favor again, but for now the one gain Dems made in a districted office was there.
I don’t think I’ve ever done a full accounting of State Senate districts in previous precinct analyses. Only three of the eight districts that include a piece of Harris County are entirely within Harris (SDs 06, 07, and 15; 13 extends into Fort Bend), and only SD17 is competitive. Beto and a couple of others carried SD17 in 2018 – I don’t have the full numbers for it now, but Rita Lucido won the Harris County portion of SD17 by a 49.4-48.8 margin in 2018, and every Dem except Kathy Cheng won SD17 this year, with everyone else except Gisela Triana exceeding Lucido’s total or margin or both. An awful lot of HD134 is in SD17, so this is just another illustration of HD134’s Democratic shift.
The other interesting district here is SD07, which Dan Patrick won by a 68.4-31.6 margin in 2012, and Paul Bettencourt won by a 57.8-40.3 margin in 2018. Every Dem had a smaller gap than that this year, with most of them bettering David Romero’s percentage from 2018, and Biden losing by just over ten points. It would be really interesting to see how this district trended over the next decade if we just kept the same lines as we have now, but we will get new lines, so the question becomes “do the Republicans try to shore up SD07”, and if so how? SD17 is clearly the higher priority, and while you could probably leave SD07 close to what it is now, with just a population adjustment, it doesn’t have much spare capacity. If there’s a lesson for Republicans from the 2011 redistricting experience, it’s that they have to think in ten-year terms, and that’s a very hard thing to do. We’ll see how they approach it.
you’ve seen this?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/20/us/politics/election-hispanics-asians-voting.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Politics
Fascinated to see how the GOP draws the Senate seats. You only have 31 senate districts unlike Congress. Do they shore up SD8, SD9, SD17, or do they go after SD10, SD16, SD19? I think SD16 becomes a vote sink, but they may try to tinker with SD10 and SD19.
@asmith—I completely agree with you with the exception of the vote sink in DFW. SD10 was protected by the courts in 2011, so any tinkering of it will result in a likely losing court case. Consequently, their better bet would be to make SD10 the vote sink and crack SD16.
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