Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
Statewide judicial
Other jurisdictions
Appellate courts, Part 1
Here’s the more traditional look at the Court of Appeals races. Unlike the Supreme Court and CCA, all of these races just have two candidates, so we get a purer view of each district’s partisan measure.
Dist Chris Robsn Chris% Robsn%
======================================
CD02 184,964 152,768 54.77% 45.23%
CD07 157,736 147,670 51.65% 48.35%
CD08 26,431 14,916 63.92% 36.08%
CD09 39,195 119,621 24.68% 75.32%
CD10 104,717 59,540 63.75% 36.25%
CD18 62,244 178,810 25.82% 74.18%
CD22 22,412 20,080 52.74% 47.26%
CD29 51,407 100,718 33.79% 66.21%
CD36 84,772 47,797 63.95% 36.05%
SBOE4 111,462 333,791 25.03% 74.97%
SBOE6 398,123 345,585 53.53% 46.47%
SBOE8 224,293 162,545 57.98% 42.02%
SD04 56,898 22,562 71.61% 28.39%
SD06 59,896 116,837 33.89% 66.11%
SD07 241,721 170,662 58.62% 41.38%
SD11 79,273 46,425 63.07% 36.93%
SD13 39,578 158,975 19.93% 80.07%
SD15 118,283 192,558 38.05% 61.95%
SD17 122,640 122,169 50.10% 49.90%
SD18 15,589 11,734 57.05% 42.95%
HD126 39,903 33,263 54.54% 45.46%
HD127 55,384 34,979 61.29% 38.71%
HD128 49,071 21,878 69.16% 30.84%
HD129 49,357 34,835 58.62% 41.38%
HD130 71,485 31,992 69.08% 30.92%
HD131 10,547 44,331 19.22% 80.78%
HD132 51,970 48,189 51.89% 48.11%
HD133 52,531 35,414 59.73% 40.27%
HD134 51,636 55,503 48.20% 51.80%
HD135 37,498 36,828 50.45% 49.55%
HD137 10,775 20,855 34.07% 65.93%
HD138 32,788 30,669 51.67% 48.33%
HD139 16,375 44,551 26.88% 73.12%
HD140 9,795 21,511 31.29% 68.71%
HD141 7,493 35,952 17.25% 82.75%
HD142 14,378 41,649 25.66% 74.34%
HD143 12,559 24,038 34.32% 65.68%
HD144 14,250 16,410 46.48% 53.52%
HD145 15,600 26,725 36.86% 63.14%
HD146 11,819 43,211 21.48% 78.52%
HD147 16,024 52,771 23.29% 76.71%
HD148 23,255 36,320 39.03% 60.97%
HD149 22,187 30,741 41.92% 58.08%
HD150 57,197 39,304 59.27% 40.73%
CC1 97,397 278,086 25.94% 74.06%
CC2 154,992 143,474 51.93% 48.07%
CC3 234,325 208,116 52.96% 47.04%
CC4 247,164 212,247 53.80% 46.20%
JP1 97,730 161,507 37.70% 62.30%
JP2 35,419 48,550 42.18% 57.82%
JP3 53,112 67,814 43.92% 56.08%
JP4 239,927 183,854 56.62% 43.38%
JP5 210,230 213,175 49.65% 50.35%
JP6 8,570 26,891 24.17% 75.83%
JP7 19,569 99,806 16.39% 83.61%
JP8 69,321 40,326 63.22% 36.78%
Dist Lloyd Molloy Lloyd% Molloy%
======================================
CD02 182,465 155,019 54.07% 45.93%
CD07 155,392 149,641 50.94% 49.06%
CD08 26,105 15,215 63.18% 36.82%
CD09 38,009 120,873 23.92% 76.08%
CD10 103,826 60,311 63.26% 36.74%
CD18 59,729 181,164 24.79% 75.21%
CD22 22,012 20,440 51.85% 48.15%
CD29 47,790 104,691 31.34% 68.66%
CD36 83,738 48,699 63.23% 36.77%
SBOE4 105,088 340,408 23.59% 76.41%
SBOE6 392,723 350,361 52.85% 47.15%
SBOE8 221,255 165,285 57.24% 42.76%
SD04 56,516 22,841 71.22% 28.78%
SD06 55,876 121,303 31.54% 68.46%
SD07 238,891 173,275 57.96% 42.04%
SD11 78,393 47,111 62.46% 37.54%
SD13 38,185 160,335 19.23% 80.77%
SD15 114,913 195,701 37.00% 63.00%
SD17 120,892 123,589 49.45% 50.55%
SD18 15,400 11,900 56.41% 43.59%
HD126 39,359 33,787 53.81% 46.19%
HD127 54,725 35,562 60.61% 39.39%
HD128 48,591 22,310 68.53% 31.47%
HD129 48,813 35,233 58.08% 41.92%
HD130 71,017 32,409 68.66% 31.34%
HD131 9,999 44,913 18.21% 81.79%
HD132 51,123 48,982 51.07% 48.93%
HD133 52,075 35,754 59.29% 40.71%
HD134 50,815 56,050 47.55% 52.45%
HD135 36,859 37,440 49.61% 50.39%
HD137 10,494 21,131 33.18% 66.82%
HD138 32,143 31,246 50.71% 49.29%
HD139 15,702 45,174 25.79% 74.21%
HD140 8,932 22,448 28.46% 71.54%
HD141 6,966 36,461 16.04% 83.96%
HD142 13,717 42,333 24.47% 75.53%
HD143 11,615 25,061 31.67% 68.33%
HD144 13,600 17,131 44.25% 55.75%
HD145 14,768 27,651 34.81% 65.19%
HD146 11,569 43,424 21.04% 78.96%
HD147 15,344 53,409 22.32% 77.68%
HD148 22,543 37,048 37.83% 62.17%
HD149 21,838 31,134 41.23% 58.77%
HD150 56,458 39,961 58.55% 41.45%
CC1 93,785 281,473 24.99% 75.01%
CC2 150,775 147,845 50.49% 49.51%
CC3 231,120 210,968 52.28% 47.72%
CC4 243,386 215,770 53.01% 46.99%
JP1 94,795 164,261 36.59% 63.41%
JP2 33,861 50,188 40.29% 59.71%
JP3 51,723 69,237 42.76% 57.24%
JP4 236,701 186,804 55.89% 44.11%
JP5 206,960 216,197 48.91% 51.09%
JP6 7,778 27,817 21.85% 78.15%
JP7 18,795 100,517 15.75% 84.25%
JP8 68,453 41,035 62.52% 37.48%
Dist Adams Guerra Adams% Guerra%
======================================
CD02 184,405 152,836 54.68% 45.32%
CD07 157,212 147,381 51.61% 48.39%
CD08 26,351 14,919 63.85% 36.15%
CD09 38,998 119,778 24.56% 75.44%
CD10 104,820 59,234 63.89% 36.11%
CD18 61,326 179,332 25.48% 74.52%
CD22 22,218 20,211 52.37% 47.63%
CD29 48,121 104,386 31.55% 68.45%
CD36 84,501 47,871 63.84% 36.16%
SBOE4 107,293 337,920 24.10% 75.90%
SBOE6 397,124 345,286 53.49% 46.51%
SBOE8 223,535 162,743 57.87% 42.13%
SD04 56,904 22,386 71.77% 28.23%
SD06 56,357 120,880 31.80% 68.20%
SD07 241,466 170,348 58.63% 41.37%
SD11 79,098 46,319 63.07% 36.93%
SD13 39,476 158,887 19.90% 80.10%
SD15 116,690 193,656 37.60% 62.40%
SD17 122,412 121,729 50.14% 49.86%
SD18 15,549 11,745 56.97% 43.03%
HD126 39,813 33,289 54.46% 45.54%
HD127 55,237 34,999 61.21% 38.79%
HD128 48,957 21,899 69.09% 30.91%
HD129 49,340 34,653 58.74% 41.26%
HD130 71,559 31,806 69.23% 30.77%
HD131 10,266 44,574 18.72% 81.28%
HD132 51,808 48,208 51.80% 48.20%
HD133 52,597 35,086 59.99% 40.01%
HD134 51,370 55,317 48.15% 51.85%
HD135 37,274 36,945 50.22% 49.78%
HD137 10,724 20,876 33.94% 66.06%
HD138 32,559 30,808 51.38% 48.62%
HD139 16,147 44,644 26.56% 73.44%
HD140 8,966 22,430 28.56% 71.44%
HD141 7,254 36,084 16.74% 83.26%
HD142 14,142 41,863 25.25% 74.75%
HD143 11,744 24,953 32.00% 68.00%
HD144 13,658 17,072 44.45% 55.55%
HD145 14,824 27,584 34.96% 65.04%
HD146 11,928 43,032 21.70% 78.30%
HD147 15,656 53,073 22.78% 77.22%
HD148 22,757 36,812 38.20% 61.80%
HD149 22,195 30,784 41.89% 58.11%
HD150 57,176 39,156 59.35% 40.65%
CC1 95,892 278,971 25.58% 74.42%
CC2 152,017 146,563 50.91% 49.09%
CC3 233,933 207,769 52.96% 47.04%
CC4 246,110 212,648 53.65% 46.35%
JP1 95,938 162,864 37.07% 62.93%
JP2 34,099 49,931 40.58% 59.42%
JP3 52,405 68,430 43.37% 56.63%
JP4 239,343 183,827 56.56% 43.44%
JP5 209,649 213,147 49.59% 50.41%
JP6 7,852 27,792 22.03% 77.97%
JP7 19,566 99,631 16.41% 83.59%
JP8 69,100 40,329 63.15% 36.85%
Dist Wise Craft Wise% Craft%
======================================
CD02 187,076 150,161 55.47% 44.53%
CD07 160,323 144,461 52.60% 47.40%
CD08 26,468 14,814 64.12% 35.88%
CD09 39,255 119,480 24.73% 75.27%
CD10 105,224 58,786 64.16% 35.84%
CD18 62,464 178,398 25.93% 74.07%
CD22 22,479 19,942 52.99% 47.01%
CD29 51,350 100,685 33.78% 66.22%
CD36 85,152 47,195 64.34% 35.66%
SBOE4 111,160 333,956 24.97% 75.03%
SBOE6 403,452 338,891 54.35% 45.65%
SBOE8 225,179 161,076 58.30% 41.70%
SD04 57,202 22,111 72.12% 27.88%
SD06 59,943 116,758 33.92% 66.08%
SD07 242,902 168,936 58.98% 41.02%
SD11 79,698 45,696 63.56% 36.44%
SD13 39,579 158,895 19.94% 80.06%
SD15 119,640 190,784 38.54% 61.46%
SD17 125,186 119,108 51.24% 48.76%
SD18 15,641 11,636 57.34% 42.66%
HD126 40,122 32,983 54.88% 45.12%
HD127 55,653 34,618 61.65% 38.35%
HD128 49,175 21,666 69.42% 30.58%
HD129 49,744 34,245 59.23% 40.77%
HD130 71,894 31,468 69.56% 30.44%
HD131 10,420 44,469 18.98% 81.02%
HD132 52,080 47,898 52.09% 47.91%
HD133 53,487 34,292 60.93% 39.07%
HD134 53,678 53,121 50.26% 49.74%
HD135 37,617 36,577 50.70% 49.30%
HD137 10,841 20,738 34.33% 65.67%
HD138 33,111 30,252 52.26% 47.74%
HD139 16,338 44,533 26.84% 73.16%
HD140 9,677 21,649 30.89% 69.11%
HD141 7,162 36,255 16.50% 83.50%
HD142 14,336 41,735 25.57% 74.43%
HD143 12,465 24,123 34.07% 65.93%
HD144 14,238 16,400 46.47% 53.53%
HD145 15,761 26,507 37.29% 62.71%
HD146 12,019 42,980 21.85% 78.15%
HD147 16,327 52,404 23.75% 76.25%
HD148 24,026 35,407 40.43% 59.57%
HD149 22,369 30,513 42.30% 57.70%
HD150 57,250 39,088 59.43% 40.57%
CC1 98,291 276,873 26.20% 73.80%
CC2 155,580 142,504 52.19% 47.81%
CC3 236,903 204,782 53.64% 46.36%
CC4 249,017 209,766 54.28% 45.72%
JP1 100,430 158,362 38.81% 61.19%
JP2 35,440 48,448 42.25% 57.75%
JP3 52,981 67,919 43.82% 56.18%
JP4 240,598 182,662 56.84% 43.16%
JP5 212,371 210,308 50.24% 49.76%
JP6 8,629 26,793 24.36% 75.64%
JP7 19,649 99,743 16.46% 83.54%
JP8 69,693 39,690 63.71% 36.29%
If you just went by these results, you might think Dems did worse overall in Harris County than they actually did. None of the four candidates carried CD07, and only Veronica Rivas-Molloy carried HD135. They all still carried Harris County, by margins ranging from 6.0 to 8.7 points and 94K to 137K votes, but it’s clear they could have done better, and as we well know, even doing a little better would have carried Jane Robinson and Tamika Craft (who, despite her low score here still lost overall by less than 20K votes out of over 2.3 million ballots cast) to victory.
I don’t have a good explanation for any of this. Maybe the Libertarian candidates that some statewide races had a bigger effect on those races than we think. Maybe the incumbents had an advantage that enabled them to get a better share of the soft partisan vote. Maybe the Chron endorsements helped the incumbents. And maybe the lack of straight ticket voting did matter. The undervote rate in these races was around 4.7%, which is pretty low, but in 2018 it was around 2.7%. Picking on the Robinson race again, had the undervote rate been 2.7% instead of the 4.68% it actually was, there would have been an additional 36,154 votes cast. At the same 53.43% rate for Robinson, she would have received another 19,317 votes, with Tracy Christopher getting 16,837. That’s a 2,480 vote net for Robinson, which would be enough for her to win, by 1,291 votes. Tamika Craft would still fall short, but Dems would have won three out of four races instead of just two.
Of course, we can’t just give straight ticket voting back to Harris County and not the other nine counties. I’m not going to run through the math for each county, but given that Christopher did better in the non-Harris Counties, we can assume she’s net a few votes in them if straight ticket voting were still in effect. Maybe it wouldn’t be enough – remember, there were far more votes in Harris than in the other nine, and the Republican advantage wasn’t that much bigger, so the net would be smaller. It’s speculation built on guesswork, and it’s all in service of making up for the fact that the Democratic candidates could have done better in Harris County with the votes that were cast than they did. Let’s not get too wishful in our thinking here.
So does this affect my advice from the previous post? Not really – we still need to build on what we’re already doing, and figure out how to do better in the places where we need to do better. Maybe a greater focus judicial races is needed, by which I mean more money spent to advertise the Democratic judicial slate. As we’ve observed, these are close races in what is clearly very swingy territory, at least for now. With close races, there’s a broad range of possible factors that could change the outcome. Pick your preference and get to work on it.