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Posts Tagged ‘Election 2008’

Early voting, Day Three: The case for pessimism

Dave Mann tells Texas Democrats to put those rose-tinted glasses away. On Monday, the Real Clear Politics site declared that Texas is up for grabs in the presidential election. The shift comes after a series of polls showing a tight race in the state between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and makes for a dramatic […]

Early voting, Day Two: How long can we keep this up?

Texas Monthly crunches some numbers from Day One: Digging further into the numbers, it seems as though the long-whispered awakening of Texas Democrats happened, at the very least, on day one. GOP consultant Derek Ryan, who published a detailed report on the affiliations of Texas’s early voters, examined the voting history of Monday’s voters, and […]

Early voting, Day One: Hope you didn’t mind waiting on line

Lots of people were out there with you. After more than 18 months of intensive election coverage, early voting kicked off in Harris County on Monday with long lines at some polling locations. As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the […]

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]

Chron overview of HD134

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his west Houston district can be the exception. The 31-year-old political newcomer is seeking to leverage […]

Chron overview of judicial races

In case anyone is paying attention to them. As Harris County goes, so go most of its judicial races. That truism appears to be good news for Democrats seeking to scoop up more district court benches in November, when two dozen criminal, civil and family court positions are up for grabs. Three of the benches […]

Registration versus turnout

Ross Ramsey throws a bit of cold water on the surge in voter registrations. Turnout isn’t nearly as volatile as registration. Over the past 10 presidential elections in Texas, the percentage of Texas adults registered to vote has gone as low as 65.3 percent in 1992 to as high as 85.4 percent in 2000. The […]

Lots of absentee ballots in Harris County this year

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced today that over 90,000 ballots have been mailed to voters who requested to vote by mail in the November 8, 2016 General and Special Elections. The number of ballots mailed is the highest ever processed in Harris County for any election. “The Super Bowl of Elections […]

Our first guess at Harris County turnout

It’s big. Early voting in Texas for the 2016 election begins in a month. It will run through November 4. The Harris County Clerk’s office is encouraging voters to take advantage of the window, in order to avoid long lines at the polls. Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart estimates 2.2 million people will be registered […]

McMullin will “appear” on the ballot

To the extent that a write-in candidate “appears” on the ballot, anyway. Texas voters will be able to vote for former CIA operative Evan McMullin for president in November. The Texas secretary of state’s office on Friday certified McMullin, who is running as an independent, as a write-in candidate for the general election. McMullin, a […]

Endorsement watch: A Libertarian moment

The Chron thinks outside the box in endorsing for the Railroad Commission. Our editorial board interviews scores of candidates for political office every election year, but seldom do we find ourselves wholeheartedly endorsing a nominee from the Libertarian Party. Then again, seldom have we met a Libertarian candidate like Mark Miller. Ask this man anything […]

Endorsement watch: Stay the course

Harris County Democrats have one incumbent up for re-election: County Attorney Vince Ryan. The Chron gives their approval for another term. [Ryan] said that he actively pursues pollution enforcement lawsuits against big companies – such as Volkswagen after it lied about emissions tests, or the corporations responsible for the San Jacinto waste pits. But in […]

It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is Texas next? Across the country in recent days, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has suffered […]

Will Texas Republicans dislike Clinton as much as they dislike Obama?

Of course they will. I mean, come on. Texas Democrats will miss Obama. But so too will Texas Republicans. Those three syllables — O-Bah-Mah — were all it took for Republicans to signal what they stood against. “There was an element of vitriol against Barack Obama that just defies logic,” said Rodney Ellis, a Democrat […]

What it will take to win the District Court of Appeals benches

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that one place on the local ballot where Democrats could potentially gain some real ground is with the district Courts of Appeals. There are no competitive Congressional or State Senate races, the one competitive State House race in HD144 would be Democratic-favored in any Presidential year, and the countywide […]

Mixed signals on voter registration

It’s mostly good news, but it could be better. While nonpartisan groups say funding is lagging to sign up Latinos to vote in the November election, voter registrations — likely fueled by Donald Trump’s salvos against people of Mexican heritage — are well ahead of 2012 along the Texas border and in the state’s largest […]

Our first general election poll of Texas

From the inbox: In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials. While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % – 29.7% ±3.1%) a deeper dive shows an overall unwillingness amongst Republican voters to pull the […]

What should the goals for 2016 be for Texas Dems?

Given that carrying the state is highly unlikely, what else is there to aim for this year? So will Democrats make a presidential play for Texas or not? Presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton stoked the issue last month by saying she could win the Lone Star State. Texas Republicans responded with ridicule, pointing to their party’s […]

Overview of the Harris County GOP Chair runoff

This is the Republican runoff I’m most interested in. Two years after wresting control of the Harris County Republican Party, Paul Simpson is facing an unexpected runoff challenge from political newcomer Rick Ramos in a race that again pits establishment fiscal conservatives against a group of socially minded GOP kingmakers. Simpson finished second with 39 […]

Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, […]

When are we going to get a general election poll of Texas?

As goes Utah… According to a new Deseret News/KSL poll, if Donald Trump becomes the GOP nominee, the voters of Utah would opt for a Democratic candidate for the first time in over 50 years. Poll respondents said they would support either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders over Trump, though Clinton was only two points […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92% 129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37% 130 16,313 7,227 […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Democratic Presidential primary

I love the smell of precinct data in the morning, don’t you? Here’s a breakdown of the Democratic Presidential primary vote for Harris County: Dist Bernie Hillary Bernie% Hill% ====================================== 126 2,315 4,649 33.04% 66.35% 127 2,621 4,905 34.54% 64.64% 128 1,756 3,532 32.46% 65.30% 129 3,425 5,247 39.24% 60.12% 130 2,376 3,692 38.89% 60.44% […]

What’s next for Adrian Garcia?

We haven’t seen the last of him, I suspect. In less than a year, former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia has gone from being the top Democratic elected official in Harris County to an also-ran in back-to-back elections. Garcia’s resounding primary loss to U.S. Rep. Gene Green on Tuesday leaves him politically precarious, having alienated […]

2016 primary reactions and initial impressions

First, a couple of minor notes. Rep. Byron Cook ultimately pulled out a win in his nasty and high-profile primary. That’s good news for Speaker Joe Straus and the general forces of “government that isn’t like a three-year-old coming off a sugar high”. Rep. Wayne Smith was forced into a runoff but did not lose […]

Final EV totals for the 2016 primaries

It all comes down to Tuesday now: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 177,088 64,431 2012 37,887 78,081 2016 85,816 131,145 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still see the SOS archive for 2008, with the final Dem totals here […]

Day 10 EV totals for 2016 primaries

One more day left to vote early. Vote tomorrow, or take your chances at a precinct location on Tuesday: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 143,169 49,373 2012 30,538 63,817 2016 65,454 98,152 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still […]

Day 8 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Eight days down, three days to go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 98,980 35,332 2012 22,752 46,769 2016 45,389 66,135 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I do now finally have a copy of the daily resuits from 2008, which you can see here, with thanks to […]

Day 7 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of Week Two is in the can: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 81,843 28,773 2012 20,058 41,447 2016 38,547 55,228 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers […]

Day 6 EV totals for 2016 primaries

We are one (short) week in, with what should be the bigger week for turnout coming up: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 66,756 23,851 2012 15,980 36,612 2016 32,233 44,844 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk […]

Day Three EV totals for 2016 primaries

Three! Three days of early voting: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 28,464 12,092 2012 9,871 21,635 2016 18,398 25,954 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS […]

Day Two EV totals for 2016 primaries

Here you go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 19,578 8,654 2012 8,135 17,846 2016 14,001 19,376 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS archive for 2008, […]

Day One Ev totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of the 2016 primary election early voting is in the can. Woo hoo! How’d we do yesterday? Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 10,049 4,130 2012 6,214 13,407 2016 9,636 12,720 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris […]

Once again with CD29

It’s all about the turnout. On a Gulfgate-area side street lined with union halls, Hillary Clinton’s Houston field office and U.S. Rep. Gene Green’s congressional re-election outfit sit mere doors apart, a coincidental marker of the anticipated link between their races. Green is squaring off against former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia in the region’s […]