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Posts Tagged ‘Election 2012’

Trautman announces run for Harris County Clerk in 2018

From the inbox: As one of my long-time and best supporters, I wanted you to be one of the first to know that I have made the decision to run for Harris County Clerk in 2018! As you know, I was elected in 2012 to the Harris County Board of Education for a six year […]

Precinct analysis: None of the above

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at write-in candidates and at undervotes. Dist McMullen All WI McMullin% All WI% ========================================= HD126 354 […]

Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 PM, going on to win by a modest margin. Here’s how that broke down: Dist […]

Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 80,244 36,703 68.62% 31.38% CD18 46,062 154,354 22.98% 77.02% CD29 35,312 93,732 27.36% 72.64% SBOE6 […]

Time once again to discuss Latino political participation

Let’s jump right in. The long wait continues for Houston and Harris County residents eager for a steep uptick in elected Latino representation. Hispanic residents last year were 42 percent of the county population, up from 23 percent in 1990, yet Houston has yet to elect a Latino mayor, and no at-large City Council members […]

Precinct analysis: Ogg v Anderson

Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level. Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg% ========================================== CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02% CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80% CD09 26,881 106,334 20.18% 79.82% CD10 78,602 38,896 66.90% 33.10% CD18 47,408 154,503 23.48% 76.52% CD29 […]

Precinct analysis: District courts

Today we will look at the Harris County-specific judicial races, by which I mean the district courts plus two County Court benches. I’m going to begin with something a little different, which is a look at the distribution of how many votes each candidate received. We know that most people know little to nothing about […]

Precinct analysis: State courts

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s what I’m going to focus on here. Dist Green Garza Guzman Robinson R SJ Avg […]

Sustaining the Harris County Democrats’ success

All things considered, I feel reasonably optimistic about Democratic prospects in Harris County going forward, but I felt that way in 2008 as well, so I certainly understand the inclination to be cautious. Democrats swept Harris County last Tuesday in nothing short of a rout, claiming every countywide position on the ballot as Hillary Clinton […]

A theory about third parties

Before I get to that theory, have you ever wondered about the people who vote straight ticket Libertarian or Green in Harris County? I got to wondering about them, because that’s the sort of thing that I think about at times like this. Here are the total numbers of such people, grouped by Presidential and […]

Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do any better than their counterparts in 2008. Republican statewide candidates, on the other hand, were […]

Initial thoughts: Statewide

See part 1 on Harris County here. The current statewide tally is Trump 52.39%, Clinton 43.34%. She received 3,848,617 votes to his 4,651,955. That’s an improvement of some 540K votes over Obama in 2012, which I certainly would have deemed acceptable going into Tuesday, while he added about 100K to Mitt Romney’s score. As with […]

Initial thoughts: Harris County

I’m still not quite ready to resume regular blogging. I’ve got a few things drafted from before the election, several of which are non-political, that I’ll begin to put in the queue, and a couple of ones that were political that may need to be amended now. For the time being, I’ve got some initial […]

The new voters

One more data point before we get the actual data. A late surge of new voters helped Harris County achieve record early turnout and suggests that local registration drives paid off – although to which party’s benefit remains anyone’s guess until Tuesday night. While partisan primary voters dominated the first week of early voting, new […]

Today is Election Day

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart urges voters to prepare before heading to vote on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. “Harris County Voters can find their Election Day polling location and review the list of acceptable forms of identification required to vote by visiting www.HarrisVotes.com.” Unlike Early Voting, on Election Day, voters are required […]

Races I’ll be watching on Tuesday, Legislative edition

Here are the legislative races I’ll be looking at to see what kind of a day it has been for Texas Democrats. After the 2012 general election, the Dems had 55 seats in the Lege. Thee Democrats lost in 2014, lowering that total to 52. As things stand right now, Dems are at 50 seats, […]

Early voting, Day Twelve: Nearly a million

Here’s your final daily EV report and your updated tracker spreadsheet. The final tally from Friday was 105,005 in person votes and 2,882 more mail ballots returned. That brings us to 882,580 people showing up at an early vote location, 94,699 returned mail ballots, and 977,279 total early voters. There will no doubt be a […]

Early voting, Day Eleven: Last chance

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced within minutes after the polls opened this morning, that Harris County crossed the 700,982 voter benchmark setting a new record for early voters by personal appearance. With essentially two full days of Early Voting left for the November 8, 2016 Election, the record established during the […]

Early voting, Day Ten: Who are these people?

Are we seeing new voters in the early voting so far, or is it all the same old same old? More than a quarter of Harris County’s 2.2 million registered voters cast a ballot in-person or by mail last week, a 36 percent increase from 2012 and part of a statewide surge in early voting. […]

Chron overview of HD135

One more look at a local legislative race. Novice political candidate Jesse A. Ybañez believes his focus on the people of the increasingly diverse Texas House District 135 makes him a better choice than longtime state Rep. Gary Elkins. Ybañez, 70, is the Democratic candidate in the Nov. 8 general election challenging the incumbent to […]

Early voting, Day Nine: A brief comparison

Here’s a comparison of where the voters who cast their ballots through the first eight days of early voting came from in 2012 and in 2016: Dist 12 Day 8 12 Total Day 8% 16 Day 8 % of 2012 ====================================================== HD126 24,461 38,858 62.9% 30,042 77.3% HD127 27,664 46,356 59.7% 37,466 80.8% HD128 24,540 […]

Republicans: Still worried about the Trump effect in Texas

The continuing story. Texas Republicans are slowly coming to grips with the unthinkable: Hillary Clinton has a shot at winning the nation’s most iconic red state. The odds are long, they say, in a state that hasn’t voted Democratic for president in 40 years. But in recent polling data and early voting results, they are […]

Early voting, Day Six: A good first week for Democrats

There’s still a week to go, but so far, so good. Harris County residents cast more ballots in the first four days of early voting than five states did in the entire 2012 presidential election. Locally, the number of ballots cast over those days was 45 percent higher than the same period four years ago. […]

Crosswind/Statesman: Trump 45, Clinton 38

One more poll result, because why not. In the wake of recent polls indicating that deep red Texas might be a toss-up in the presidential race, a new Crosswind/American-Statesman Texas Pulse poll conducted Saturday through Monday shows Republican Donald Trump with a 7-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Lone Star State According to […]

Early voting, Day Five: Maybe the lines will be shorter next week

Resources will be mobilized to ameliorate things. Harris County will add staff and equipment to early voting locations next week to help cut down long wait times fueled by a record surge of voter turnout, County Clerk Stan Stanart said. Typically, people head to early voting to skip the lines of Election Day, but voters […]

UT/Trib: Trump 45, Clinton 42

Even the UT/Texas Trib poll shows a tight Presidential race in Texas. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump held a three-percentage-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton on the eve of early voting in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, had the support of 45 percent […]

Early voting, Day Four: Just the facts

Here is your Day 4 EV report, and here as always is the spreadsheet that tracks early voting in Presidential elections going back to 2004. Long story short, another record-breaking day, with about the same volume (just over 76,000 in person votes) as on Wednesday. We are at over 366,000 total votes after four days. […]

Early voting, Day Three: The case for pessimism

Dave Mann tells Texas Democrats to put those rose-tinted glasses away. On Monday, the Real Clear Politics site declared that Texas is up for grabs in the presidential election. The shift comes after a series of polls showing a tight race in the state between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and makes for a dramatic […]

Early voting, Day Two: How long can we keep this up?

Texas Monthly crunches some numbers from Day One: Digging further into the numbers, it seems as though the long-whispered awakening of Texas Democrats happened, at the very least, on day one. GOP consultant Derek Ryan, who published a detailed report on the affiliations of Texas’s early voters, examined the voting history of Monday’s voters, and […]

Early voting, Day One: Hope you didn’t mind waiting on line

Lots of people were out there with you. After more than 18 months of intensive election coverage, early voting kicked off in Harris County on Monday with long lines at some polling locations. As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the […]

Chron overview of HD150

This could be interesting. The business card for Michael Shawn Kelly, a landscape architect who wants to represent the deep-red suburbs of far north Harris County in the Texas House, touts his conservative values and quotes the late Republican politician Jack Kemp. The card, however, makes no mention of party affiliation. That is because Kelly […]

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]

Chron overview of HD23

We go to Galveston for one of the few interesting Legislative races in the area. A former Democratic state legislator is trying to recapture the Texas House District 23 seat from the first Republican to hold the office since Reconstruction. In one of the few competitive legislative contests, Democrat Lloyd Criss, who represented Galveston County […]

Chron overview of HD134

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his west Houston district can be the exception. The 31-year-old political newcomer is seeking to leverage […]