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Posts Tagged ‘Election 2012’

Our first general election poll of Texas

From the inbox: In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials. While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % – 29.7% ±3.1%) a deeper dive shows an overall unwillingness amongst Republican voters to pull the […]

What should the goals for 2016 be for Texas Dems?

Given that carrying the state is highly unlikely, what else is there to aim for this year? So will Democrats make a presidential play for Texas or not? Presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton stoked the issue last month by saying she could win the Lone Star State. Texas Republicans responded with ridicule, pointing to their party’s […]

An early look ahead to the legislative races

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, will face Democratic challenger Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley. • HD-54. State Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen, […]

Hillary Clinton on the Trump effect in Texas

I have three things to say about this. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton posed a wild notion in a new interview: She could carry Texas in the fall. In a newly published New York magazine interview with reporter Rebecca Traister, Clinton was asked which traditionally red states she might make a play for against likely […]

My vision for Metro: Buses

I’ve said before that I would have some suggestions for new Metro Board Chair Carrin Patman and her team as they take their places. This post is where I start sharing those suggestions. The idea is to focus on proposals that I believe are doable in the current political and economic climate, in the short […]

Overview of the Harris County GOP Chair runoff

This is the Republican runoff I’m most interested in. Two years after wresting control of the Harris County Republican Party, Paul Simpson is facing an unexpected runoff challenge from political newcomer Rick Ramos in a race that again pits establishment fiscal conservatives against a group of socially minded GOP kingmakers. Simpson finished second with 39 […]

Another FEC complaint filed against Cruz

We’re up to two. The Texas Democrats have filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging presidential contender Sen. Ted Cruz and his associates violated campaign finance laws. The complaint, dated April 22, asserts that Cruz national co-chair, J. Keet Lewis, broke election laws at an official campaign fundraiser in December by asking attendees […]

Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, […]

Runoff watch: Leftovers

Three last races that didn’t fit into any other categories. SBOE District 6 – Democratic Jasmine Jenkins and Dakota Carter, the two candidates that actually campaigned for this office in this three-way race, finished one and two in the voting in March. Carter collected all of the endorsements that I tracked, which may help him […]

Runoff watch: JPs and Constables

OK, sit back and settle in, this may take awhile. Justice of the Peace, Precinct 1, Place 1 – Democratic The race to succeed retiring JP Dale Gorczynski turned out to be a bit of a barnburner. The two leading candidates, Eric William “Brother of District Judge Kyle” Carter and Tanya Makany-Rivera, finished 144 votes […]

When are we going to get a general election poll of Texas?

As goes Utah… According to a new Deseret News/KSL poll, if Donald Trump becomes the GOP nominee, the voters of Utah would opt for a Democratic candidate for the first time in over 50 years. Poll respondents said they would support either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders over Trump, though Clinton was only two points […]

Runoff watch: Judicial races

There are three District Court race runoffs on the Democratic side, and two Court of Criminal Appeals runoffs for the Republicans. There are also a few Justice of the Peace runoffs, but I’ll deal with them in another post. 11th Civil District Court – Democratic Kristem Hawkins led this three-candidate race by a wide margin, […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92% 129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37% 130 16,313 7,227 […]

Final EV totals for the 2016 primaries

It all comes down to Tuesday now: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 177,088 64,431 2012 37,887 78,081 2016 85,816 131,145 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still see the SOS archive for 2008, with the final Dem totals here […]

Day 10 EV totals for 2016 primaries

One more day left to vote early. Vote tomorrow, or take your chances at a precinct location on Tuesday: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 143,169 49,373 2012 30,538 63,817 2016 65,454 98,152 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still […]

Day 8 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Eight days down, three days to go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 98,980 35,332 2012 22,752 46,769 2016 45,389 66,135 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I do now finally have a copy of the daily resuits from 2008, which you can see here, with thanks to […]

Day 7 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of Week Two is in the can: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 81,843 28,773 2012 20,058 41,447 2016 38,547 55,228 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers […]

Day 6 EV totals for 2016 primaries

We are one (short) week in, with what should be the bigger week for turnout coming up: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 66,756 23,851 2012 15,980 36,612 2016 32,233 44,844 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk […]

Endorsement watch: Stragglers

The Chron ran a list of all their primary endorsements last Monday, which included recommendations in a couple of race where they had not included an accompanying editorial. They have now closed that gap, at least on the Democratic side, with two late-breaking nod. First is to Dakota Carter, running in the three-way primary for […]

Day Three EV totals for 2016 primaries

Three! Three days of early voting: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 28,464 12,092 2012 9,871 21,635 2016 18,398 25,954 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS […]

Day Two EV totals for 2016 primaries

Here you go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 19,578 8,654 2012 8,135 17,846 2016 14,001 19,376 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS archive for 2008, […]

Day One Ev totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of the 2016 primary election early voting is in the can. Woo hoo! How’d we do yesterday? Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 10,049 4,130 2012 6,214 13,407 2016 9,636 12,720 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris […]

Once again with CD29

It’s all about the turnout. On a Gulfgate-area side street lined with union halls, Hillary Clinton’s Houston field office and U.S. Rep. Gene Green’s congressional re-election outfit sit mere doors apart, a coincidental marker of the anticipated link between their races. Green is squaring off against former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia in the region’s […]

Overview of two Bexar County legislative primaries

The turnover of Bexar County’s Democratic legislative caucus continues apace. With the departures in 2015 of Mike Villarreal and Jose Menendez (succeeded by Diego Bernal and Ina Minjarez, respectively) and the departures this year by Joe Farias, Trey Martinez-Fischer, and Ruth Jones McClendon, there will be a whole lot of Bexar County legislators being sworn […]

Can Dems make progress in Collin County?

It sure would be nice if they could. It’s no secret that Plano’s Prestonwood Baptist Church has long wielded tremendous political influence, often quietly blurring the local lines between church and state. But in the 2016 cycle, with the Republican Party veering further to the right, the 40,000-member evangelical megachurch is taking its electoral involvement […]

Mary Beth Rogers’ prescription for Texas Democrats

I’m sure you’ve seen this article by Mary Beth Rogers, onetime campaign manager for Ann Richards, about how Democrats can compete and win statewide again. DEAR TEXAS DEMOCRATS… First, let’s get the numbers out of the way. Let’s use the analytics as a backdrop for all that we do, but not as the only factor […]

Endorsement watch: Dudley and Sullivan

The Chron makes its endorsements in the Tax Assessor primaries. It is the time of year when the Harris County tax assessor-collector gains sudden prominence: Jan. 31 is the due date to pay property taxes, and Feb. 1 is the last day to register for party primary elections. Both of those duties are handled by […]

TPJ files complaint against Cruz

Look out, Ted. In a formal complaint sent to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) today, Texans for Public Justice (TPJ) urged the agency to audit and investigate the Ted Cruz for Senate Committee’s failure to disclose to voters that Goldman Sachs and Citibank secretly financed his hotly contested 2012 U.S. Senate race. Cruz campaign disclosures […]

Endorsement watch: Latino electeds for Gene Green

Not a big surprise. U.S. Rep. Gene Green, a Houston Democrat, will pick up support from several Houston political players Tuesday. The 12-term congressman faces what could be a formidable primary challenge in the form of former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia. According to a Green campaign press release, seven Houston Democrats are ready to […]

More candidates for Sheriff

We’re up to four now. Lt. Jeff Stauber confirmed Thursday he is running for Harris County sheriff. “It’s the job that I always wanted. There’s no doubt that I could lead this agency,” Stauber said. Now a lieutenant assigned to the court division, Stauber, 52, has been with the Harris County Sheriff’s Office since 1986. […]

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who voted in this election, and perhaps make some comparisons to past elections. Today we’re going […]

Day 12 EV 2015 totals: Final turnout projections

The last day was another big one: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ======================================= 2015 164,104 29,859 193,963 43,280 2013 87,944 21,426 109,370 30,572 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. Before I go on, let me note that the numbers noted […]

If you really want to improve turnout in city elections

This is a plan that would do it. Councilman Ron Nirenberg [recently] called for a major change to local elections that he says would boost voter turnout and bolster public participation. The councilman said he’s spent years considering ways to address abysmal turnout in municipal elections, which are held in May of odd-numbered years. His […]

Neugebauer to step down in CD19

At least one Congressional seat will have a new person sitting in it next year. U.S. Rep. Randy Neugebauer, R-Lubbock, announced Thursday that he would not seek re-election in 2016. Neugebauer, who has represented his West Texas district in Congress since 2003, plans to finish his current term. “To say that this has been an […]