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Posts Tagged ‘Election 2012’

Chron overview of HD150

This could be interesting. The business card for Michael Shawn Kelly, a landscape architect who wants to represent the deep-red suburbs of far north Harris County in the Texas House, touts his conservative values and quotes the late Republican politician Jack Kemp. The card, however, makes no mention of party affiliation. That is because Kelly […]

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]

Chron overview of HD23

We go to Galveston for one of the few interesting Legislative races in the area. A former Democratic state legislator is trying to recapture the Texas House District 23 seat from the first Republican to hold the office since Reconstruction. In one of the few competitive legislative contests, Democrat Lloyd Criss, who represented Galveston County […]

Chron overview of HD134

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his west Houston district can be the exception. The 31-year-old political newcomer is seeking to leverage […]

Flipping Fort Bend

FiveThirtyEight projects a national insight down to the local level. In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among […]

WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43

The margin keeps narrowing. After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night. The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by […]

Three State Rep race overviews

In the order of their publication, beginning with HD149: For more than a decade in Texas House District 149 – where Harris and Fort Bend counties meet – a growing, ethnically diverse voting population has done something rare for the Houston suburbs: Elect a Democrat. State Rep. Hubert Vo, whose district includes Alief and Katy, […]

Statewide registrations top 15 million

Not too shabby. Texas has a record-breaking 15 million people registered to vote ahead of the November election, the Secretary of State’s office announced Thursday. Texas has 15,015,700 voters registered according to a preliminary estimate — over 777,000 more than were registered in time for the March primaries. The deadline to register to vote was […]

Record registration numbers for Harris County

Nice. As registration closed, Harris County’s voter roster had grown by more than 6 percent since 2014, the steepest increase in 16 years. More than 323,890 new names have been added, bringing the county voter roll to more than 2.2 million. Harris County is not alone. The Texas Secretary of State’s office two weeks ago […]

YouGov: Trump 50.1, Clinton 41.5

So says the YouGov Election Model for Texas. Here is how that works. The raw data for our analysis is a rolling sample of over 30,000 respondents to YouGov’s polling over the past two weeks, updated with around 3,000 new interviews every day; however turning that into state-level estimates involves several other sources of data […]

Chron overview of Harris County Tax Assessor race

It’s deja vu all over again. Republican Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Mike Sullivan once again faces a challenge from Democrat Ann Harris Bennett, a rematch from four years ago for an office that oversees billions of dollars in property tax collections, maintains voter rolls and registers more vehicles than any other county in the state. […]

Registration versus turnout

Ross Ramsey throws a bit of cold water on the surge in voter registrations. Turnout isn’t nearly as volatile as registration. Over the past 10 presidential elections in Texas, the percentage of Texas adults registered to vote has gone as low as 65.3 percent in 1992 to as high as 85.4 percent in 2000. The […]

Chron overview of the County Attorney race

It’s the one with the one Democratic incumbent running for re-election. Vince Ryan calls himself the Doberman pinscher of Harris County. The Democrat county attorney campaigned in 2012 as a government watchdog. He cannot point to any “dramatic” instances he has played the part, but said that is the point: deterrence through Doberman-like intimidation. “A […]

Lots of absentee ballots in Harris County this year

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced today that over 90,000 ballots have been mailed to voters who requested to vote by mail in the November 8, 2016 General and Special Elections. The number of ballots mailed is the highest ever processed in Harris County for any election. “The Super Bowl of Elections […]

Chron overview of SBOE races

There are a few races of interest, though the usual bet is that nothing unusual will happen. Dakota Carter, a Democrat and underdog in District 6, said he got “fired up” to run for the board because he is tired of members manipulating the state’s curriculum to put it “more in line with politics rather […]

Endorsement watch: Three State House races

Possibly the only State Rep race endorsements we’ll get, depending on how much the Chron cares about the less-competitive races. House District 23: Lloyd Criss We endorse Lloyd Criss, a Democrat whom Texas Monthly rated as an outstanding freshman legislator back in 1979, the first of his six terms in office. Now the legislative expert […]

Our first guess at Harris County turnout

It’s big. Early voting in Texas for the 2016 election begins in a month. It will run through November 4. The Harris County Clerk’s office is encouraging voters to take advantage of the window, in order to avoid long lines at the polls. Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart estimates 2.2 million people will be registered […]

Voter registration way up statewide

That’s a lot. Nearly 15 million people are now registered to vote in Texas, a state record. Texas currently has more than 14.8 million voters registered — over 1 million more than were registered in the 2012 presidential election, according to the Texas secretary of state’s office. Keith Ingram, director of elections for the secretary […]

So what’s going on with these polls of Texas?

Republicans are feeling a little touchy about them. “I think the emerging picture is one that looks a little bit tighter in the presidential election than we’ve seen in recent elections in the state,” said Joshua Blank, whose Texas Lyceum poll, released Thursday, found GOP nominee Donald Trump leading Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by only […]

Another story about the possible Trump Effect on downballot races

It’s mostly about one legislative race in particular, but that’s okay. When he worked in the oil industry, Thomas Benavidez traveled to drilling sites across Texas and northern Mexico. The work was exciting, and the pay was good. He rarely paid attention to politics. But after being laid off two years ago, the 24-year-old South […]

Endorsement watch: A Libertarian moment

The Chron thinks outside the box in endorsing for the Railroad Commission. Our editorial board interviews scores of candidates for political office every election year, but seldom do we find ourselves wholeheartedly endorsing a nominee from the Libertarian Party. Then again, seldom have we met a Libertarian candidate like Mark Miller. Ask this man anything […]

Precinct analysis: HISD Trustee district VII in a Presidential year

As you know, we have a special election for HISD Trustee in district VII on the ballot this November. There’s one Democratic candidate in that race and three Republicans. These races are normally held in odd-numbered years, in which turnout is considerably lower than in Presidential years. Overall turnout in Harris County in 2013 was […]

It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is Texas next? Across the country in recent days, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has suffered […]

Who watches the election watchers?

What could possibly go wrong with this? In 2012, Greg Abbott caused a stir when he issued this warning to international election observers: Don’t set foot inside Texas polling places. Abbott, then the attorney general, was worried the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe — which routinely dispatches election monitors to the United States […]

PPP: Trump 44, Clinton 38

We knew this poll was coming, and it confirms what we have been seeing elsewhere. PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, […]

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans — not just Georgia, but states like Texas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi. Even as […]

July finance reports for State Rep candidates

Hey, it’s July, and you know what that means: Campaign finance reports! There aren’t many State Rep races of interest this November, but there are four that I wanted to look at. HD134 Rep. Sarah Davis Ben Rose Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand ================================================ Davis 92,972 252,457 0 53,839 Rose 83,047 31,278 0 54,691 […]

What it will take to win the District Court of Appeals benches

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that one place on the local ballot where Democrats could potentially gain some real ground is with the district Courts of Appeals. There are no competitive Congressional or State Senate races, the one competitive State House race in HD144 would be Democratic-favored in any Presidential year, and the countywide […]

Gallego claims poll lead over Hurd in CD23

Just another item to add to the list of reasons why Donald Trump is and has been bad news for Texas Republicans. Voters in the district, which is the largest Congressional district in the country which is not its own state, stretching from northwest Bexar County to El Paso, have an ‘overwhelmingly negative’ view of […]

No bonds this year

Maybe next year. Mayor Sylvester Turner likely will not ask voters to approve bonds this November to replace the nearly depleted debt residents approved in 2012, a move that may delay several projects. […] Having addressed a $160 million shortfall with the unanimous passage of his first budget last month, Turner said he now is […]

Mixed signals on voter registration

It’s mostly good news, but it could be better. While nonpartisan groups say funding is lagging to sign up Latinos to vote in the November election, voter registrations — likely fueled by Donald Trump’s salvos against people of Mexican heritage — are well ahead of 2012 along the Texas border and in the state’s largest […]

Our first general election poll of Texas

From the inbox: In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials. While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % – 29.7% ±3.1%) a deeper dive shows an overall unwillingness amongst Republican voters to pull the […]

What should the goals for 2016 be for Texas Dems?

Given that carrying the state is highly unlikely, what else is there to aim for this year? So will Democrats make a presidential play for Texas or not? Presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton stoked the issue last month by saying she could win the Lone Star State. Texas Republicans responded with ridicule, pointing to their party’s […]

An early look ahead to the legislative races

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, will face Democratic challenger Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley. • HD-54. State Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen, […]