Off the Kuff Rotating Header Image

Posts Tagged ‘Election 2012’

Precinct analysis: HISD Trustee district VII in a Presidential year

As you know, we have a special election for HISD Trustee in district VII on the ballot this November. There’s one Democratic candidate in that race and three Republicans. These races are normally held in odd-numbered years, in which turnout is considerably lower than in Presidential years. Overall turnout in Harris County in 2013 was […]

It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is Texas next? Across the country in recent days, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has suffered […]

Who watches the election watchers?

What could possibly go wrong with this? In 2012, Greg Abbott caused a stir when he issued this warning to international election observers: Don’t set foot inside Texas polling places. Abbott, then the attorney general, was worried the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe — which routinely dispatches election monitors to the United States […]

PPP: Trump 44, Clinton 38

We knew this poll was coming, and it confirms what we have been seeing elsewhere. PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, […]

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans — not just Georgia, but states like Texas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi. Even as […]

July finance reports for State Rep candidates

Hey, it’s July, and you know what that means: Campaign finance reports! There aren’t many State Rep races of interest this November, but there are four that I wanted to look at. HD134 Rep. Sarah Davis Ben Rose Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand ================================================ Davis 92,972 252,457 0 53,839 Rose 83,047 31,278 0 54,691 […]

What it will take to win the District Court of Appeals benches

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that one place on the local ballot where Democrats could potentially gain some real ground is with the district Courts of Appeals. There are no competitive Congressional or State Senate races, the one competitive State House race in HD144 would be Democratic-favored in any Presidential year, and the countywide […]

Gallego claims poll lead over Hurd in CD23

Just another item to add to the list of reasons why Donald Trump is and has been bad news for Texas Republicans. Voters in the district, which is the largest Congressional district in the country which is not its own state, stretching from northwest Bexar County to El Paso, have an ‘overwhelmingly negative’ view of […]

No bonds this year

Maybe next year. Mayor Sylvester Turner likely will not ask voters to approve bonds this November to replace the nearly depleted debt residents approved in 2012, a move that may delay several projects. […] Having addressed a $160 million shortfall with the unanimous passage of his first budget last month, Turner said he now is […]

Mixed signals on voter registration

It’s mostly good news, but it could be better. While nonpartisan groups say funding is lagging to sign up Latinos to vote in the November election, voter registrations — likely fueled by Donald Trump’s salvos against people of Mexican heritage — are well ahead of 2012 along the Texas border and in the state’s largest […]

Our first general election poll of Texas

From the inbox: In a poll released today and conducted June 13-14, 2016, Texas voters are specifically rejecting Donald Trump’s lies and the corruption of State GOP elected officials. While Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 7 points (36.8 % – 29.7% ±3.1%) a deeper dive shows an overall unwillingness amongst Republican voters to pull the […]

What should the goals for 2016 be for Texas Dems?

Given that carrying the state is highly unlikely, what else is there to aim for this year? So will Democrats make a presidential play for Texas or not? Presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton stoked the issue last month by saying she could win the Lone Star State. Texas Republicans responded with ridicule, pointing to their party’s […]

An early look ahead to the legislative races

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, will face Democratic challenger Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley. • HD-54. State Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen, […]

Hillary Clinton on the Trump effect in Texas

I have three things to say about this. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton posed a wild notion in a new interview: She could carry Texas in the fall. In a newly published New York magazine interview with reporter Rebecca Traister, Clinton was asked which traditionally red states she might make a play for against likely […]

My vision for Metro: Buses

I’ve said before that I would have some suggestions for new Metro Board Chair Carrin Patman and her team as they take their places. This post is where I start sharing those suggestions. The idea is to focus on proposals that I believe are doable in the current political and economic climate, in the short […]

Overview of the Harris County GOP Chair runoff

This is the Republican runoff I’m most interested in. Two years after wresting control of the Harris County Republican Party, Paul Simpson is facing an unexpected runoff challenge from political newcomer Rick Ramos in a race that again pits establishment fiscal conservatives against a group of socially minded GOP kingmakers. Simpson finished second with 39 […]

Another FEC complaint filed against Cruz

We’re up to two. The Texas Democrats have filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging presidential contender Sen. Ted Cruz and his associates violated campaign finance laws. The complaint, dated April 22, asserts that Cruz national co-chair, J. Keet Lewis, broke election laws at an official campaign fundraiser in December by asking attendees […]

Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, […]

Runoff watch: Leftovers

Three last races that didn’t fit into any other categories. SBOE District 6 – Democratic Jasmine Jenkins and Dakota Carter, the two candidates that actually campaigned for this office in this three-way race, finished one and two in the voting in March. Carter collected all of the endorsements that I tracked, which may help him […]

Runoff watch: JPs and Constables

OK, sit back and settle in, this may take awhile. Justice of the Peace, Precinct 1, Place 1 – Democratic The race to succeed retiring JP Dale Gorczynski turned out to be a bit of a barnburner. The two leading candidates, Eric William “Brother of District Judge Kyle” Carter and Tanya Makany-Rivera, finished 144 votes […]

When are we going to get a general election poll of Texas?

As goes Utah… According to a new Deseret News/KSL poll, if Donald Trump becomes the GOP nominee, the voters of Utah would opt for a Democratic candidate for the first time in over 50 years. Poll respondents said they would support either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders over Trump, though Clinton was only two points […]

Runoff watch: Judicial races

There are three District Court race runoffs on the Democratic side, and two Court of Criminal Appeals runoffs for the Republicans. There are also a few Justice of the Peace runoffs, but I’ll deal with them in another post. 11th Civil District Court – Democratic Kristem Hawkins led this three-candidate race by a wide margin, […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92% 129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37% 130 16,313 7,227 […]

Final EV totals for the 2016 primaries

It all comes down to Tuesday now: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 177,088 64,431 2012 37,887 78,081 2016 85,816 131,145 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still see the SOS archive for 2008, with the final Dem totals here […]

Day 10 EV totals for 2016 primaries

One more day left to vote early. Vote tomorrow, or take your chances at a precinct location on Tuesday: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 143,169 49,373 2012 30,538 63,817 2016 65,454 98,152 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still […]

Day 8 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Eight days down, three days to go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 98,980 35,332 2012 22,752 46,769 2016 45,389 66,135 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I do now finally have a copy of the daily resuits from 2008, which you can see here, with thanks to […]

Day 7 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of Week Two is in the can: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 81,843 28,773 2012 20,058 41,447 2016 38,547 55,228 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers […]

Day 6 EV totals for 2016 primaries

We are one (short) week in, with what should be the bigger week for turnout coming up: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 66,756 23,851 2012 15,980 36,612 2016 32,233 44,844 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk […]

Endorsement watch: Stragglers

The Chron ran a list of all their primary endorsements last Monday, which included recommendations in a couple of race where they had not included an accompanying editorial. They have now closed that gap, at least on the Democratic side, with two late-breaking nod. First is to Dakota Carter, running in the three-way primary for […]

Day Three EV totals for 2016 primaries

Three! Three days of early voting: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 28,464 12,092 2012 9,871 21,635 2016 18,398 25,954 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS […]

Day Two EV totals for 2016 primaries

Here you go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 19,578 8,654 2012 8,135 17,846 2016 14,001 19,376 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS archive for 2008, […]

Day One Ev totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of the 2016 primary election early voting is in the can. Woo hoo! How’d we do yesterday? Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 10,049 4,130 2012 6,214 13,407 2016 9,636 12,720 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris […]

Once again with CD29

It’s all about the turnout. On a Gulfgate-area side street lined with union halls, Hillary Clinton’s Houston field office and U.S. Rep. Gene Green’s congressional re-election outfit sit mere doors apart, a coincidental marker of the anticipated link between their races. Green is squaring off against former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia in the region’s […]

Overview of two Bexar County legislative primaries

The turnover of Bexar County’s Democratic legislative caucus continues apace. With the departures in 2015 of Mike Villarreal and Jose Menendez (succeeded by Diego Bernal and Ina Minjarez, respectively) and the departures this year by Joe Farias, Trey Martinez-Fischer, and Ruth Jones McClendon, there will be a whole lot of Bexar County legislators being sworn […]