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John Floyd

Mike Floyd for Pearland ISD

What were you doing when you were 18 years old? Probably not running for school board.

Mike Floyd

Michael Floyd isn’t your typical high school senior.

The Dawson High School student says he’s been involved in politics since he was in fourth grade.

“I was the one kid who had a Barack Obama bumper sticker on my bike as I rode around town,” Floyd said. “Since then, I’ve worked on two Congressional campaigns, I’ve managed a state representative race, and I worked on a presidential campaign, managing it for our county.”

This spring break, while his classmates are enjoying their time off, he’s campaigning for a position on the Pearland ISD Board of Trustees.

“As a student, I’ve seen a lot more than the trustees have,” Floyd said. “I’ve been with teachers, students and faculty members for nine and a half months out of the year for 40 hours a week. I just see flagrant issues in our district.”

The 18-year-old is running against two-term incumbent Rusty DeBorde, who served as president during four of his six years on the board.

The Chron has also taken notice.

Floyd said one of his goals as a trustee is to improve the district’s communications efforts and allow improved access to information for tax payers.

“We need to open up and be as transparent as possible,” Floyd said. “I firmly believe that our district needs to be far more transparent than they are today both in regards to posting videos of board workshops online as well as disclosing what’s going on during closed-door meetings. Now, I understand there are several things that the State of Texas will not allow school board members to talk about publicly. But, I want to reduce the amount of business that the district does behind closed doors. We are a district that is funded publicly and I firmly believe that tax payers have a right to know how the district is operating.”

Unlike the Pearland City Council, Pearland ISD does not post videos of board workshops on their website. If elected, Floyd said he would work to change that. In addition, he said he supports posting more information on the district website such as the names of trustee candidates and campaign finance reports.

You know I support those last two items. Floyd’s campaign webpage is here, and his campaign Facebook page is here. His issues page addresses student rights, among other things, which is a topic I doubt you’ll see covered by other candidates. One issue I would have liked to have seen addressed there is Pearland’s pro-potty bill superintendent, whom Mike Floyd would have a role in overseeing if he gets elected. Having said that, he has made his opposition to SB6 and his support for transgender students very clear on his campaign Facebook page. Floyd was endorsed by the Texas Democratic Party in its first round of support for local candidates in the May elections. His father John Floyd was a candidate for State Rep in HD29 last November, so despite his young age he at least has some campaign experience. I wish him good luck, and I’ll be keeping an eye on this one on May 6.

Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

I had some time to spare, so I spent it with the canvass reports from Brazoria County. You know, like you do. Here’s what I was able to learn.


        Trump   Clinton   R Avg   D Avg   Weber    Cole
=======================================================
Votes  36,572    15,127  37,036  14,996  37,917  14,678
Pct    68.58%    28.23%  71.18%  28.82%  72.09%  27.91%


        Trump   Clinton   R Avg   D Avg   Olson  Gibson
=======================================================
Votes  36,219    28,073  39,026  26,713  40,179  26,178
Pct    54.08%    41.92%  59.37%  40.63%  60.55%  39.45%


        Trump   Clinton   R Avg   D Avg   Thomp   Floyd
=======================================================
Votes  40,666    30,564  43,599  29,181  44,713  28,505
Pct    54.83%    41.21%  59.95%  40.05%  61.07%  38.93%

Votes  32,125    12,636  32,462  12,528
Pct    69.23%    27.23%  72.15%  27.85%

Brazoria County is part of two Congressional districts, CDs 14 and 22, and two State Rep districts, HDs 25 and 29. The latter two are entirely within Brazoria, so the numbers you see for them are for the whole districts, while the CDs include parts of other counties as well. The first table splits Brazoria by its two CDs, while the second table is for the two HDs. Incumbent Republican Randy Weber was challenged by Democrat Michael Cole in CD14, while Republican Pete Olsen was unopposed in CD22. The second group of numbers in the first table are the relevant ones for CD22; I didn’t include Olsen because there was no point (*). There were no contested District or County Court races, so the “R Avg” and “D Avg” above are for the four contested district Appeals Court races; these are the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals, which as you know includes Harris County.

The second table is for the State Rep districts. In HD29, incumbent Republican Ed Thompson faced Democrat John Floyd, while Republican Dennis Bonnen was unchallenged in HD25. You can sort of tell from the tables and I can confirm from the raw data that HD29 mostly overlapped CD22, and HD25 mostly overlapped CD14. As I have done before, the percentages for the Presidential races are calculated including the vote totals for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, which is why they don’t add to 100%. The other contested races all had only two candidates.

Still with me? If so, you can see that HD29 was much more interesting than HD25, and was where basically all of the crossover Presidential votes were. Trump lagged the Republican baseline in HD25, but those voters mostly either skipped the race or voted third party. Viewed through the Presidential race, HD29 looks like a potentially competitive district, but if you pull the lens back a bit you can see that it is less so outside that, and that Thompson exceeded the Republican baseline on top of that. It would be nice to point to this district as a clear opportunity, but we’re not quite there. There is another dimension to consider here, however, and that is a comparison with the 2012 results:


       Romney     Obama    Cruz  Sadler   R Avg   D Avg   Weber Lampson
=======================================================================
Votes  35,571    13,940  34,618  13,865  33,931  14,444  33,116  14,398
Pct    70.82%    27.75%  69.34%  27.77%  70.14%  29.86%  69.70%  30.30%


       Romney     Obama    Cruz  Sadler   R Avg   D Avg   Olsen  Rogers
=======================================================================
Votes  35,291    20,481  34,879  19,879  34,466  20,164  35,997  17,842
Pct    62.49%    36.27%  62.14%  35.42%  63.09%  36.91%  66.86%  33.14%


       Romney     Obama    Cruz  Sadler   R Avg   D Avg   Thomp   Blatt
=======================================================================
Votes  40,170    22,480  39,657  21,866  39,203  22,204  40,642  21,388
Pct    63.32%    35.44%  62.86%  34.66%  63.84%  36.16%  65.52%  34.48%

Votes  30,692    11,941  29,840  11,878  29,194  12,404
Pct    70.95%    27.60%  69.45%  27.64%  70.18%  29.82%

In 2012, Randy Weber was running to succeed Ron Paul in the redrawn CD14, which had a nontrivial amount of resemblance to the old CD02 of the 90s, which is how former Congressman Nick Lampson came to be running there. He ran ahead of the pack, but the district was too red for him to overcome. Pete Olsen was challenged by LaRouchie wacko Keisha Rogers, Ed Thompson faced Doug Blatt, and Dennis Bonnen was again unopposed. I threw in the numbers from the Ted Cruz-Paul Sadler Senate race in these tables for the heck of it.

The main thing to note here is that HD29 was a lot more Republican in 2012 than it was in 2016. Ed Thompson went from winning by 31 points in 2012 to winning by 22 in 2016, with the judicial average going from nearly a 28 point advantage for Republicans to just under a 20 point advantage. Total turnout in the district was up by about 11,000 votes, with 7K going to the Dems and 4K going to the Republicans. That still leaves a wide gap – 14K in the judicial races, 16K for Ed Thompson – but it’s progress, and it happened as far as I know without any big organized effort.

And that’s the thing. If Democrats are ever going to really close the gap in Texas, they’re going to have to do it by making places like HD29, and HD26 in Fort Bend and the districts we’ve talked about in Harris County and other districts in the suburbs, more competitive. If you look at the map Greg Wythe kindly provided, you can see that some of the blue in Brazoria is adjacent to blue precincts in Fort Bend and Harris Counties, but not all of it. Some of it is in Pearland, but some of it is out along the border with Fort Bend. I’m not an expert on the geography here so I can’t really say why some of these precincts are blue or why they flipped from red to blue in the four years since 2012, but I can say that they represent an opportunity and a starting point. This is what we need to figure out and build on.

(Since I initially drafted this, Greg provided me two more maps, with a closer view to the blue areas, to get a better feel for what’s in and around them. Here’s the North Brazoria map and the South Brazoria map. Thanks, Greg!)

(*) – As noted in the comments, I missed that Pete Olsen did have an opponent in 2016, Mark Gibson. I have added the numbers for that race. My apologies for the oversight.)

Chron overview of HD29

Over to Brazoria County for this one.

Rep. Ed Thompson

Rep. Ed Thompson

A Bernie Sanders’ liberal is taking on one of the most conservative members of the Texas House of Representatives in District 29 in Brazoria County, presenting voters with, perhaps, the starkest contrast between candidates of any race in Texas.

Democrat John T. Floyd, 48, who was a Bernie Sanders’ state delegate, is challenging Republican Ed Thompson, 65, who earned a 98 percent rating from the ultra conservative Eagle Forum.

The candidates may offer the most radically different visions of government of any race in Texas, said Elizabeth McLane, chairwoman of the government and economics department at Alvin Community College.

Floyd is making an audacious challenge in the most conservative of Texas’s 21 largest urban counties, McLane said. Even so, Democrats’ chances are better than ever and are likely to keep improving as the district becomes more urbanized.

John Floyd

John Floyd

District 29 stretches roughly from Beltway 8 south to FM 2004, with the city of Pearland covering the north end of the district, Manvel and Iowa Colony in the northeast, Alvin in the east central and Liverpool farther south. Nearly half the district’s population of 176,000 is in Pearland.

Nearly all the district’s growth is in west Pearland, which is trending Democrat. East Pearland is the oldest part of the city and dominated by traditional conservatives, as are the two other largest cities, Manvel and Alvin. The rest of the district is largely rural.

The expanding and increasingly diverse population in Pearland could make Republican control of the district difficult within five to 10 years, McLane said.

Floyd is a knowledgeable and articulate lawyer who could benefit from the population boom, making him the strongest candidate the Democrats have fielded for the house seat in more than a decade, she said.

Let’s maintain some perspective here, because this isn’t a swing district. John McCain carried this district 62.6% to 36.6%, and Mitt Romney did a little better, winning it 63.3% to 35.4%. It may well be that the demographics are going in a Democratic direction, but until we see that in an election result it doesn’t mean much. Floyd’s candidacy will provide an interesting data point in a longstanding debate – is it better in a non-hospitable district like this to find a candidate for the minority party who is a reasonably close ideological fit, or one who provides a clear and consistent contrast between the choices? The former approach tends to be the more common one, but that’s not what we have here. I’ll be sure to check and see what the numbers have to say when it’s all over.