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Posts Tagged ‘polls’

We will have exit polls this year

Good. Two years ago, a consortium of news outlets that conducts nationwide exit polls during every November election announced it was scaling back efforts in Texas and 18 other states. The move left political researchers with little data to study shifts in the Texas electorate. This year, with a high-profile gubernatorial race on the November […]

Another taxi survey

From the inbox: Vehicle for hire industry survey The City of Houston has retained Taxi Research Partners to conduct a study of demand within the vehicle for hire industry in Houston. The study will review current market conditions, identify key players and stakeholders in the industry and will establish a baseline for demand for those […]

UT/Trib poll: Abbott 44, Davis 32

Whatever. Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Wendy Davis by 12 percentage points in the race for governor, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. That result is close to the 11-point spread, also in Abbott’s favor, in the February UT/TT Poll. In this most recent survey, he maintained a 14-point lead among male […]

The Latino Victory Project

I like the sound of this. Building on record-breaking fundraising numbers, an expanded donor base and a historically high number of Latino voters in the 2012 presidential election, a progressive Latino group is set to officially begin efforts to expand the reach of Latino voters and candidates in the 2014 cycle and beyond. Founded by […]

Chron overview of Senate primary runoff

We’ve heard this story before. Texas Democrats trying to gain traction in statewide elections face an awkward predicament in the May 27 primary runoff election for the U.S. Senate. If the winner is Kesha Rogers, a follower of Lyndon LaRouche, their nominee won’t even be welcome at the Texas Democratic Convention in Dallas next month. […]

PPP: Abbott 51, Davis 37

Another discouraging poll from PPP. In the Governor’s race Greg Abbott’s at 51% to 37% for Wendy Davis. Those numbers are largely unchanged from our last poll of the state in early November when Abbott had a 50/35 advantage. Davis had a 39/29 favorability rating right after her famous filibuster last June, but since then […]

A grassroots fighting force of extraordinary magnitude

At least, I hope it is. Addressing hundreds of volunteers on Saturday, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis highlighted her efforts to mobilize Texas voters and once again attacked her Republican opponent, Attorney General Greg Abbott, for being what she called a political “insider.” Davis also talked gender equality in the workplace — which she’s made […]

Pot polling

Our favorite pollsters aren’t optimistic about pot legalization despite some good looking poll numbers for it. In the February 2014 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, we asked respondents for their opinions on marijuana possession and gave them four options to choose from: “marijuana possession should not be legal under any circumstances;” “marijuana possession should be […]

ECPS: Abbott 49, Davis 42

Via Texpatriate, the Emerson College Polling Society has a poll of the Texas gubernatorial race that shows Greg Abbott with a seven point lead. According to a new survey conducted by the Emerson College Polling Society, Texas Attorney General Gregory Abbott (R) has a seven point lead over his Democratic opponent Wendy Davis (49% to […]

Rasmussen: Abbott 53, Davis 41

We have our first non-UT/Trib poll result for this cycle. The latest statewide survey of Likely Texas Voters shows Abbott with 53% support to 41% for Davis. At this early point in the campaign, there are surprisingly few voters who haven’t already made up their minds: One percent (1%) likes some other candidate in the […]

What will The Dew do this time?

Go negative or go home is the strategy the pundits have selected for him. Political experts have a bit of advice for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst’s re-election campaign: go negative or go home. The incumbent Senate president was crushed in Tuesday’s Republican primary by Houston Sen. Dan Patrick. In all, more than 72 percent of […]

The Trib explains itself on its polls

Good for them. The ongoing challenge of public polling is to reconcile popular expectations about what polls “mean” at election time with our own desire to provide the public with information about mass opinion on politics and policy. We begin with the realization that polling results provide an account of public attitudes only at the […]

The UT/TT primary polls were completely useless

I expressed my contempt with the UT/Texas Trib’s Democratic primary poll result for the US Senate race last night, which they richly deserved. Sure, pollster Jim Henson admitted that “the first person to raise some money and run some ads could really move this”, and that’s largely what happened, but that got lost in all […]

What the Trib’s pollsters miss about their own polls

Having published their poll results, Jim Henson goes back and analyzes their gubernatorial poll, pronouncing it all a big success. The partisan responses to the poll results have been similarly predictable. The Republican chorus is singing I-told-you-so, chalking up Davis’ position to the impact of the media pack reporting of her biographical fudges. The Democratic […]

The UT/TT poll’s track record in past Democratic primaries

The one result in that UT/TT poll from Monday that has people freaking out is the one that shows nutball LaRouchie Kesha Rogers leading the Senate race with 35%, followed by David Alameel with 27%. I expressed my skepticism of that result at the time, because among other things I have my doubts that their […]

UT/TT poll: Abbott 47, Davis 36

The Trib publishes its second poll of the Texas gubernatorial race. After what are shaping up to be easy primary wins in March for the leading gubernatorial candidates, Republican Greg Abbott starts the general election race for governor with an 11-point lead over Democrat Wendy Davis, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. […]

How extreme is too extreme?

The GOP candidates for Lite Guv are doing their best to test the hypothesis that having an R next to your name is all you need to get elected statewide in Texas, regardless of your stated positions on issues. The Republican candidates for lieutenant governor do not seem worried about Democratic challengers and independent voters, […]

Ted Cruz argues against his own election

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I just don’t get this. Sen. Ted Cruz, elected 13 months ago by actual voters, said Thursday he’d prefer to see state legislators pick U.S. senators – as they were until a century ago, when the 17th Amendment came along. Direct election of senators has eroded […]

PPP: Abbott leads Davis, 50-35

The polls giveth, and the polls taketh away. PPP’s newest poll of next year’s race for Governor of Texas finds Republican Greg Abbott expanding his lead over Democrat Wendy Davis. Abbott now has a 15 point advantage at 50/35. That’s up a good amount from our last poll, conducted the week of Davis’ famous filibuster, […]

UT/TT poll has Davis trailing Abbott by five

I know today is Election Day 2013, but for better or worse much of the attention lately has been about the 2014 elections. Filing season begins later this week, and we now have a new poll result suggesting that the Governor’s race starts out as a close one. Attorney General Greg Abbott, the leading candidate […]

Why some polls are less accurate than others

The local GOP had a rally Monday night that among other things featured a “straw poll” of the faithful to see who their preferences were in the upcoming primary election. Harris County Republicans worked to energize their base on Monday night with a rally at the Galleria, where a parade of statewide candidates pitched voters […]

Steve Stockman does something I support

I know, I’m as shocked as you are. Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, has recently backed a bill to require federal officials to comply with state marijuana laws, which was introduced in April and has since garnered support from Congressmen on both sides of the aisle. The Respect State Marijuana Laws Act of 2013, introduced […]

Mostly looking good for Prop 6

A good poll result for the water infrastructure Constitutional amendment. Texans support $2 billion in water infrastructure financing by a better than 2-to-1 margin, but nearly a quarter haven’t decided how they will vote on the issue this November, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The respondents favored the measure, known as […]

A tale of two demographics

The Chronicle looks at one group of voters Wendy Davis will need to excel with in order to win. Getting Democrats – Hispanics, in particular – to the ballot box in record numbers is essential if the party hopes to compete in 2014 against a well-funded and heavily favored GOP machine. Energizing the sluggish electorate […]

Lyceum poll: Abbott over Davis, 29-21

Make of this what you will. Republican Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Wendy Davis by 8 points in a hypothetical matchup for Texas governor, but it’s a statistical dead heat among women, according to a Texas Lyceum Poll of registered voters released Wednesday. Abbott, the attorney general, leads Davis, a state senator from Fort Worth, […]

Early To Rise referendum probably would have passed

For what it’s worth. It’s one of those questions we always ask ourselves in love, life and politics: What if? In this case, what if the Early to Rise campaign had gotten its one penny tax increase for early education on the ballot? “The good news for them is it was support for this. The […]

Endorsement watch: Saving the Dome

The Chronicle gives its blessing to the Astrodome renovation referendum. There has been a lot of finger-pointing over the Astrodome’s mismanagement, but come Election Day it only matters that voters point their fingers to the ballot button and approve the $217 million bond initiative to save the Dome. [...] The eyes of the nation are […]

Inmate processing center polls favorably

The other issue on the county ballot appears to be in good shape. Results from a recent KUHF-KHOU 11 News poll suggest strong voter support for a $70 million November bond issue for a city-county inmate processing center. The poll, conducted by Rice University political science professor Bob Stein, found 58 percent of respondents support […]

Dome poll

In addition to their poll of the Mayor’s race, KHOU and KUHF also polled about the Astrodome referendum. These results are a bit harder to read. The fate of the Astrodome rests with voters who’ll decide whether Harris County should borrow $217-million to convert the dormant building into a multi-purpose event center for everything from […]

KHOU polls the Mayor’s race

The first poll of the season is always exciting news. Annise Parker seems headed for a runoff in her campaign to keep her job, but she commands more than twice as many supporters as her leading challenger in a newly released poll commissioned by KHOU 11 News and KUHF – Houston Public Radio. Still, just […]

Experts agree: Suburban women the key for Wendy

UH political science professor Richard Murray says so. Nationally, Democrats have done pretty well in recent elections in large part because they run so strongly with women. In 2012, for example, former Governor Mitt Romney beat President Barack Obama 52 percent to 45 percent among men, but lost the overall popular vote because women went […]

Davis reportedly running for Governor

At least according to Robert Miller. Credible sources tell me that Sen. Wendy Davis will run for Governor in 2014 and not seek reelection to Texas Senate District 10. It will set up a high stakes match-up with Attorney General Greg Abbott in the November 4, 2014, general election. Sen. Davis believes that she faces […]

Yet another wacky poll about Latino voting in Texas

Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in. Sen. Ted Cruz lost the Hispanic vote in Texas by about 20 percentage points, but out-performed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, according to post-2012 election polling shared with the Washington Examiner. Cruz defeated Democrat Paul Sadler last November by nearly 16 percentage points on […]

BGTX and Anglo women voters

The San Antonio Current has a great story on what Battleground Texas is up to, and why more than just increasing turnout is needed to turn Texas blue. The Democrats can take Texas in 2016 if they can tap into one a key segment: white Texans, and in particular white women, the new kingmakers–or queenmakers–of […]