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Posts Tagged ‘polls’

Houston Area Survey 2016: Harris County becoming more Democratic

Whoa. A majority of Harris County residents lean Democratic for the first time ever, propelled by plummeting support for Republicans among Latinos, according to a survey released Monday by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research. The finding, in the midst of a particularly divisive presidential campaign, could signal an important shift in arguably the […]

Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, […]

When are we going to get a general election poll of Texas?

As goes Utah… According to a new Deseret News/KSL poll, if Donald Trump becomes the GOP nominee, the voters of Utah would opt for a Democratic candidate for the first time in over 50 years. Poll respondents said they would support either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders over Trump, though Clinton was only two points […]

Lots more Texas primary poll results

It’s a veritable plethora, ladies and gentlemen. Let’s start with this one, which looks good for Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has a commanding 12-point lead in his home state over businessman Donald Trump as the candidates head into Tuesday’s GOP presidential primary in Texas, according to a Texas […]

Two more primary poll results

First we have one from KUHF, though it’s just for the GOP race. One week before Super Tuesday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 14-point lead in the Lone Star State, according to a poll released Wednesday by Houston Public Media and the University of Houston Hobby Center for Public Policy. It suggests a decisive […]

UT/Trib poll: Clinton and Cruz lead in Texas

I’d been wondering when we were going to get a fresh poll for the Texas primary races. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders has narrowed considerably in Texas but remains in the double digits among the state’s likely Democratic primary voters, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The former secretary of state […]

Time for the Presidential campaigns to focus on Texas

It’s our turn in the spotlight. After spending millions to gain attention and a relative handful of delegates in the first four primary and caucus states, presidential candidates will now train their sights on Super Tuesday and the mother lode of Texas delegates that could help clinch the nominations. Texas is the richest prize on […]

Mary Beth Rogers’ prescription for Texas Democrats

I’m sure you’ve seen this article by Mary Beth Rogers, onetime campaign manager for Ann Richards, about how Democrats can compete and win statewide again. DEAR TEXAS DEMOCRATS… First, let’s get the numbers out of the way. Let’s use the analytics as a backdrop for all that we do, but not as the only factor […]

KHOU/KUHF poll: Tuner 38, King 38

We have a tie, according to the latest poll. Sylvester Turner and Bill King are now locked in a dead heat in the race for Houston mayor, according to the newly released KHOU-News 88.7 Poll of likely voters. The survey shows both candidates supported by 38 percent of surveyed voters, with roughly one-quarter of voters […]

Dueling runoff polls: King 48, Turner 43 (HRBC) – Turner 47, King 40 (internal)

From the inbox yesterday morning: The Houston Realty Business Coalition (HRBC) released a poll of 300 active voters today measuring support of Mayoral candidates in the December runoff election. “Bill King has built a broad base of support throughout the City of Houston,” said Chairman Alan Hassenflu. “Bill King is the only candidate offering thoughtful […]

UT/TT primary poll: Hillary leads the Dems, Trump and Cruz lead the GOP

For those who care about this sort of thing. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump are in a dead heat for the Republican presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. With four months to go before the March 1 primary, each had the support of 27 percent […]

Will someone sue over the term limits referendum?

Maybe. Pre-election polling showed voters slightly favored the change, but not if they were told that it benefits sitting council members. Rice University political scientist Bob Stein conducted the News 88.7/KHOU 11 News election poll. “When we informed voters that the adoption of the two four-year (terms) would take place immediately in 2016 and advantage […]

Day 12 EV 2015 totals: Final turnout projections

The last day was another big one: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ======================================= 2015 164,104 29,859 193,963 43,280 2013 87,944 21,426 109,370 30,572 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. Before I go on, let me note that the numbers noted […]

The pessimism of the poli-sci profs

A trio of academic pundits thinks things aren’t going well for the pro-HERO forces. Turnout is up sharply from previous Houston municipal elections, with the largest increases occurring in predominantly Republican and African-American precincts, where a majority of voters are likely to oppose HERO, according to Bob Stein, a political scientist at Rice University. “I’ve […]

My sense of where things stand right now

Here’s an aggregation of the polls we’ve seen so far: Candidate HAR HRBC KHOU KPRC Avg ======================================== Turner 19 24 19 20 20.50 Garcia 19 14 9 13 13.75 King 10 18 9 14 12.75 Bell 10 11 6 12 9.75 Costello 9 8 5 11 8.25 Hall 6 8 4 4 5.50 McVey 1 […]

KPRC poll: Turner 20, others close together

Yet another poll with Sylvester Turner in the lead. As of Oct. 15, State Representative Sylvester Turner finishes just ahead of the rest of the pack of 13 candidates with 20 percent of the vote; attorney Bill King gets 14 percent, neck-and-neck with former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia at 13 percent;, former US Representative […]

Race and runoffs and Turner

Everyone agrees that Sylvester Turner will be one of the candidates to make it to the runoff for Mayor this year. But what happens then? Yet, to succeed term-limited Mayor Annise Parker, Turner, an African-American, will need to broaden his coalition beyond black voters – a challenge in a city where voting patterns often fall […]

Endorsement watch: Changing term limits

The Chron endorses City Proposition 2, which would change the current system of term limits from three two-year terms to two four-year terms. If our leaders know they’ll be judged by a six-year timeline, there’s little incentive to plan for the future. If politicians are replaced every six years, we’ll keep repeating the same debates. […]

KHOU poll: Turner 19, King and Garcia 9

Our third poll result in the past week. Sylvester Turner remains the front-runner, but Adrian Garcia has lost his once firm grip on second place and Bill King rises into the top tier of contenders in the race for Houston mayor. That’s the headline from the latest poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and Houston […]

Mimi Swartz’s Mayoral campaign rant

Here it is. What if they held a mayoral race and nobody came? That’s the question plaguing many people currently involved in Houston politics—even if no one else in town is asking it. This phenomenon isn’t entirely new: in 2009,* a measly 19 percent of Houston voters turned out for the general election to make […]

HRBC poll: Turner 24, King 18

Looks like we’re going to see more polling than usual this cycle. This was sent as a press release from the Bill King campaign, which was kind enough to forward the full poll data to me when I requested it: Thursday, the Houston Realty Business Coalition (HRBC) released a poll of 428 active voters measuring […]

HAR poll

And some more good news here. With less than four weeks to go before the election, the Houston mayoral race remains “fluid,” according to a new poll commissioned by the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR). The poll finds Adrian Garcia and Sylvester Turner tied for the lead, with a second tier of closely-clustered candidates, including […]

2015 Lyceum poll, day two

Once again, here’s the press release: An independent poll conducted by the Texas Lyceum, a non-partisan, nonprofit statewide leadership group, shows billionaire real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump leading U.S. Senator Ted Cruz by five points (21 percent-16 percent) in Texas in the 2016 Republican Presidential nominating contest. The survey also shows […]

2015 Texas Lyceum poll

Issues first, election stuff to come. From the press release: The 2015 Texas Lyceum Poll Finds:  Immigration remains the most important issue facing the state and Texans support lawmakers’ increased spending on border security. Texans’ views on  gay marriage are changing. Forty nine percent of Texans support gay marriage – up from 29 percent in 2009. […]

Texas Pulse Poll

Hey look! Someone polled Texas. A statewide poll of Texas likely voters finds that immigration and the economy are the top issues of concern for residents of the Lone Star State. The poll also found that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton lead the Republican and Democratic primaries. Barack Obama is viewed unfavorably by a majority […]

Poll suggests Republicans don’t support Paxton

That’s gotta sting. A poll of likely Republican voters in Texas found that 62 percent believe Attorney General Ken Paxton should resign in the wake of his indictment on alleged securities-law violations, the group that commissioned it said. The poll of 976 likely Republican voters was conducted on Aug. 15 by Florida-based Gravis Marketing for […]

Voter ID may have had broader effects than we thought

Interesting. Texas’ strict voter identification requirements kept many would-be voters in a Hispanic-majority congressional district from going to the polls last November — including many who had proper IDs — a new survey shows. And the state’s voter ID law – coupled with lackluster voter education efforts – might have shaped the outcome of a […]

Turner and Garcia lead early Mayoral poll

We have our first polling numbers for the 2015 Mayoral election. Sylvester Turner and Adrian Garcia have emerged as the clear front-runners in the first independent poll before the election that will determine Houston’s next mayor. The KHOU – Houston Public Media Poll indicates a clear divide between two tiers of candidates, with Turner and […]

Montgomery and Fort Bend

The Houston Area Survey covered a bigger area than usual this year. One is mostly white and mostly Republican. It hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate since native Texan Lyndon Johnson a half-century ago. The other is as racially and ethnically diverse as any place in the country, swelling with black, Asian and Hispanic residents […]

The Mayoral candidates and public transportation

It’s a start. When it comes to traffic, Houstonians and their mayoral candidates agree: The city is gridlocked and only getting worse. Judging by the candidates’ fledgling campaign platforms, many of which mention traffic as a top concern, road improvements are the answer. Houston-area residents, however, beg to differ. So says the Kinder Institute’s recent […]

Texans oppose LGBT discrimination

From Texas Wins: Nearly two-thirds of likely voters in Texas support protecting gay and transgender Texans from discrimination, according to a new poll released today. The statewide survey also found that a strong majority of voters believe that discrimination against gay and transgender Texans is a problem. View the findings of the poll here: http://TXWins.org/PollingMemo […]

Gay acceptance in Harris County

Not too shabby. Harris County, once known as reliably conservative, has become increasingly progressive on social issues such as same-sex marriage and the death penalty, according to a new poll by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research. The shifting cultural consensus reflects changes in public attitudes across the country but stands apart from Republican-led […]

Texans like having health insurance

Who knew? A first-of-its-kind survey asking Texans if health insurance is necessary found an overwhelming majority believe having coverage is critical for them and their families, with 50 percent calling it “absolutely essential.” The Texas Medical Center commissioned Nielsen to survey attitudes surrounding health insurance ranging from its importance, what you would give up to […]

Precinct analysis: Abbott versus Perry in Latino districts

District level election data for 2014 has been available for a few weeks now. Seems like as good a time as any to return to a favorite topic, namely how Greg Abbott did in heavily Latino areas. An exit poll from November claimed Abbott drew 44% of the Latino vote, which would be a very […]