To wrap up my look at 2012 versus 2008 results for all the new districts, here’s how the 36 Congressional districts compared. Dist McCain Pct Obama08 Pct Romney Pct Obama12 Pct RIdx DIdx ============================================================================== 01 178,520 68.85% 78,918 30.44% 181,833 71.49% 69,857 27.47% 1.04 0.90 02 150,665 61.78% 91,087 37.35% 157,094 62.93% 88,751 35.55% 1.02 [...]
Posts Tagged ‘precinct analysis’
Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008, Senate and SBOE edition
To follow up on my previous examination of how the 2012 election returns looked in State House districts compared to the 2008 returns, I now have the data to look at other types of districts as well. You can find it as well on the Texas Legislative Council’s webpage – here are the reports for [...]
Precinct analysis: Third parties revisited
Politico has a question. Is Austin’s Travis County the nation’s Libertarian Party stronghold? The co-founders of a Libertarian political action committee based there make that case, arguing that the Texas locale is the “most Libertarian large county in America.” Wes Benedict and Arthur DiBianca of Libertarian Booster PAC note that 31 Libertarian candidates were on [...]
Precinct analysis: City propositions
And we come to the city of Houston bond referenda, of which there were five on the ballot. Here’s the usual breakdown of them: Dist A Yes A No B Yes B No C Yes C No D Yes D No E Yes E No ========================================================================== 126 720 231 725 239 711 228 671 275 [...]
Precinct analysis: HISD and HCC
I was reasonably confident that the HISD bond referendum would be successful, mostly because there wasn’t any real opposition from officials or constituencies that would normally be expected to support it. It had a much smoother path than the 2007 referendum, which still managed to pass, so it wasn’t hard to see this one making [...]
Precinct analysis: Metro
The first rule of precinct analysis, at least as I do it, is that you really can’t learn much by doing it on lopsided elections. The Metro referendum, which passed with 78% of the vote, is Exhibit A of this phenomenon. Here’s how the vote went in the State Rep districts for the Metro issue: [...]
Precinct data: County Commissioner precincts
I wish they called County Commissioner precincts by some other name, because it’s confusing to refer to them as such when one is discussing canvass data, which is data from the thousand-plus voting precincts in Harris County. But that’s the name we’re stuck with, so make sure the clutch on your context-shifter is in good [...]
Precinct analysis: The two races we’re all glad to see the end of
For my last look at precinct data from the Harris County Democratic primary of 2012, let’s see what happened in the two most contentious races on the ballot: Elaine Palmer versus Steven Kirkland, and Keryl Douglass versus Lane Lewis. First up, Palmer-Kirkland: Dist Palmer Kirkland Palmer % =============================== 126 791 417 65.48% 127 860 466 [...]
Precinct analysis: That mysterious Democratic DA primary
We return to Democratic primary results and to the Harris County canvass as we take a look at the race everyone is trying to understand, the Democratic DA primary. Here’s what the numbers look like: Dist Oliver Fertitta Oliver % =============================== 126 623 571 52.18% 127 693 624 52.62% 128 772 651 54.25% 129 885 [...]
Precinct analysis: GOP President and Senate in Harris County
Though I didn’t have one originally, I now have a canvass of the GOP primary in Harris County from this year. Since it’s impossible for me to have data and not do something with it, I’ve taken a look at the Presidential and Senate results for each of the State Rep districts. Here are the [...]
Runoff precinct analysis, At Large #2
One of Santa’s election elves came by on Friday with a delivery of Harris County precinct data for the 2011 runoff elections. You can guess how I spent some of my weekend. Before I launch into the numbers, here are a few caveats about them. First and foremost, this is the first election under the [...]
Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large #5
Last but certainly not least, the race everyone is wondering about, At Large #5: Dist Robinson Jones Christie Ryan ======================================= A 17.10% 23.61% 48.91% 10.38% B 18.80% 73.00% 5.09% 3.11% C 25.07% 30.02% 35.57% 9.35% D 14.96% 73.56% 7.86% 3.62% E 19.97% 13.73% 54.51% 11.79% F 19.44% 30.45% 37.41% 12.70% G 14.99% 14.70% 61.81% 8.49% [...]
Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large #2
What can you say about a ten-candidate pileup? Let’s start by seeing what the district numbers look like: Dist Thibaut Perez Burks Goss Fraga Dick Pool Griff Robinson Shorter ==================================================================================== A 15.69% 17.99% 13.94% 3.03% 6.93% 11.67% 6.41% 11.35% 9.75% 3.25% B 8.93% 6.65% 31.58% 1.83% 4.70% 4.43% 5.48% 3.93% 18.52% 13.94% C 18.49% 10.79% [...]
Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large races, part 1
Here’s a look at the election returns in each Council district for the three “normal” At Large races, in At Large #1, #3, and #4. First up is #1, where first term incumbent CM Stephen Costello won a narrow majority for a second term. Dist Costello Galvan Boates Cook ====================================== A 46.25% 7.44% 28.98% 17.34% [...]
Precinct analysis: The 2011 Mayor’s race
I finally have a draft canvass of the 2011 Harris County vote. You know what that means. Here’s the breakdown in the Council districts for the Mayor’s race: Dist Simms Ullman Wilson Herrera Parker O’Connor ===================================================== A 4.41% 1.28% 16.31% 18.03% 41.89% 18.09% B 22.41% 3.02% 11.92% 12.71% 43.80% 6.14% C 1.65% 0.83% 9.11% 11.21% [...]
As goes Harris, so goes CC2
Just as HD133 was a microcosm of Harris County in 2008, Sylvia Garcia’s County Commissioner precinct was a miniature version of the county as a whole in 2010. Take a look at how Democratic candidates did in County Commissioner Precinct 2 (CC2) versus how they did countywide and see for yourself: Candidate CC2 Harris ========================= [...]
The Kinky/Strayhorn effect
As I did my analysis of the Latino vote in the 2006 election, it occurred to me that I had stumbled across a framework for trying to understand what the effect was of Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn’s candidacies on Rick Perry and Chris Bell. Basically, I would see what percentage of the part [...]
Rick Perry and the Latino vote, part 3
Having looked at the 2002 election last week, I turn my attention now to 2006. This presents a number of challenges, thanks to the bizarre four-way contest that was the Governor’s race. In all my previous work on the 2006 elections, I’ve generally skipped over the Governor’s race because the numbers are so different from [...]
Rick Perry and the Latino vote, part 2
On Tuesday, I took a look at how Rick Perry did in the 2002 election in the State Rep districts (SRDs) that have Spanish surname voter registration (SSRV) percentage of 50 or more in order to try to get a handle on the question of how well Perry performed with the Latino vote. Today I’m [...]
Rick Perry and the Latino vote, part 1
Say what you want about Rick Perry, he’s got a much firmer grasp of the changing demographics of Texas and their political implications than many of his partymates do. As such, he plans to compete vigorously for the Latino vote in Texas. Perry campaign manager Rob Johnson said the campaign will try and improve upon [...]
Analyzing the Republican judicial primaries
Last month, I printed an analysis of the Democratic judicial primaries by University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus, who along with grad student Chris Nicholson built a mathematical model to predict the number of votes a candidate would receive based of a variety of factors such as money raised, ballot position, and specific [...]
Straight ticket voting trends
One last look at partisan voting trends this decade, with a peek at how straight ticket voting has changed over time. This one is a bit trickier to determine, since it’s not tracked by the Secretary of State. You have to go to each individual County Clerk website to figure it out. Some counties I [...]
Population and voting trends: 2002 and 2006 judicial elections, Part II
In the previous entry, I said there was another way we could compare the 2002 and 2006 statewide judicial elections to get a feel for how partisan voting patterns changed at the county level. Turns out that the two Democratic candidates for statewide judicial office in 2006, Bill Moody and JR Molina, were also candidates [...]
Another analysis of the Democratic judicial primaries
Recently, I received an email from Brandon Rottinghaus, who is a political science professor at UH. He and a graduate student of his had put together a mathematical model of the 2010 Democratic primary for the countywide judicial races. I thought it was interesting and worth sharing, so I present to you here what he [...]
Population and voting trends: 2002 and 2006 judicial elections, Part I
For the next entry in this series, we’re going to look at how county returns changed from 2002 to 2006 in statewide judicial races in Texas. Again, I’m using judicial races here because they tend to reflect straight partisan preference a bit more closely. It might have been nice to compare Senate races or Governor’s [...]
The Commissioners
Here’s a look at how the candidates in the three Commissioner races did across Texas. – In the Democratic primary for Land Commissioner, Bill Burton won a majority in an astonishing 193 counties; of those, he scored better than 70% in 123, and better than 60% in 161. So why isn’t he the nominee for [...]