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Posts Tagged ‘precinct analysis’

Precinct analysis: None of the above

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at write-in candidates and at undervotes. Dist McMullen All WI McMullin% All WI% ========================================= HD126 354 […]

Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 PM, going on to win by a modest margin. Here’s how that broke down: Dist […]

Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 80,244 36,703 68.62% 31.38% CD18 46,062 154,354 22.98% 77.02% CD29 35,312 93,732 27.36% 72.64% SBOE6 […]

Precinct analysis: Ogg v Anderson

Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level. Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg% ========================================== CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02% CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80% CD09 26,881 106,334 20.18% 79.82% CD10 78,602 38,896 66.90% 33.10% CD18 47,408 154,503 23.48% 76.52% CD29 […]

Precinct analysis: District courts

Today we will look at the Harris County-specific judicial races, by which I mean the district courts plus two County Court benches. I’m going to begin with something a little different, which is a look at the distribution of how many votes each candidate received. We know that most people know little to nothing about […]

HISD special election runoff will be December 10

I don’t believe I’ve seen a news story about this. The runoff election for the top two candidates to fill the unexpired term of outgoing HISD District VII Trustee Harvin Moore has been set for Dec. 10. Candidates competing in the runoff are Anne Sung and John Luman. The runoff election winner will serve the […]

Precinct analysis: State courts

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s what I’m going to focus on here. Dist Green Garza Guzman Robinson R SJ Avg […]

Precinct analysis: The RRC and the Libertarian moment

Back to precinct analysis, and the race that I featured in my post from yesterday, the Railroad Commissioner race. Here are the numbers: Dist Christian Yarbrough Miller Salinas =========================================== CD02 152,751 97,235 18,346 6,835 CD07 130,384 96,652 20,510 6,537 CD09 24,638 99,920 4,712 4,090 CD10 77,311 32,577 5,878 2,337 CD18 43,820 142,609 9,862 6,382 CD29 […]

Precinct analysis: Hillary in Harris County

Let’s get started with the precinct data, shall we? Here’s a Chron story from the day after the election about how things looked overall in the county. The country’s most populous swing county turned a shade bluer Tuesday, when Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump in Harris County despite trailing nationally. Clinton’s commanding victory here is […]

Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do any better than their counterparts in 2008. Republican statewide candidates, on the other hand, were […]

Chron overview of HD134

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his west Houston district can be the exception. The 31-year-old political newcomer is seeking to leverage […]

Flipping Fort Bend

FiveThirtyEight projects a national insight down to the local level. In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among […]

Three State Rep race overviews

In the order of their publication, beginning with HD149: For more than a decade in Texas House District 149 – where Harris and Fort Bend counties meet – a growing, ethnically diverse voting population has done something rare for the Houston suburbs: Elect a Democrat. State Rep. Hubert Vo, whose district includes Alief and Katy, […]

Precinct analysis: HISD Trustee district VII in a Presidential year

As you know, we have a special election for HISD Trustee in district VII on the ballot this November. There’s one Democratic candidate in that race and three Republicans. These races are normally held in odd-numbered years, in which turnout is considerably lower than in Presidential years. Overall turnout in Harris County in 2013 was […]

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans — not just Georgia, but states like Texas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi. Even as […]

An early look ahead to the legislative races

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, will face Democratic challenger Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley. • HD-54. State Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen, […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92% 129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37% 130 16,313 7,227 […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Democratic Presidential primary

I love the smell of precinct data in the morning, don’t you? Here’s a breakdown of the Democratic Presidential primary vote for Harris County: Dist Bernie Hillary Bernie% Hill% ====================================== 126 2,315 4,649 33.04% 66.35% 127 2,621 4,905 34.54% 64.64% 128 1,756 3,532 32.46% 65.30% 129 3,425 5,247 39.24% 60.12% 130 2,376 3,692 38.89% 60.44% […]

Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

One last election to review: Dist Brown Frazer ====================== A 5,232 7,918 B 13,161 2,616 C 15,244 15,726 D 16,390 4,197 E 6,118 16,073 F 3,890 3,527 G 8,775 21,762 H 6,558 3,117 I 5,253 2,731 J 2,794 2,763 K 10,632 5,434 A 39.79% 60.21% B 83.42% 16.58% C 49.22% 50.78% D 79.61% 20.39% E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #5 runoff

Our last Council runoff review: Dist Christie Moses ====================== A 8,729 3,657 B 3,273 11,539 C 17,743 8,757 D 5,285 13,847 E 16,652 4,324 F 4,108 2,747 G 23,150 4,954 H 4,230 4,405 I 3,716 3,611 J 3,149 1,985 K 6,152 8,582 A 70.47% 29.53% B 22.10% 77.90% C 66.95% 33.05% D 27.62% 72.38% E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #4 runoff

Here we have the least competitive runoff of the six that were citywide. Dist Edwards Morales ======================= A 6,322 6,153 B 14,660 1,761 C 17,813 10,238 D 18,341 2,882 E 7,688 13,231 F 4,046 3,080 G 11,996 15,203 H 5,610 3,903 I 4,371 3,774 J 3,070 2,287 K 12,150 3,830 A 50.68% 49.32% B 89.28% […]

Shades of 1997

The Chron looks to the past to analyze Sylvester Turner’s runoff victory. As the Chronicle reported, voting in the Houston mayor’s runoff fell overwhelmingly along racial lines, with Sylvester Turner edging out a slight victory in part by securing 93 percent of the vote in the city’s majority-black precincts. King, meanwhile, took 71 percent of […]

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large #2

Now for a race that’s both a little easier and a little harder to understand, in At Large #2: Dist Robinson Davis ====================== A 6,193 5,825 B 7,698 7,508 C 18,432 8,938 D 9,941 9,840 E 8,762 11,677 F 3,557 3,233 G 13,439 13,197 H 5,677 3,026 I 4,570 2,919 J 2,773 2,336 K 8,592 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #1 runoff

Let’s move on to the At Large races. Here’s how the vote went in At Large #1: Dist Knox Provost ===================== A 8,758 4,042 B 2,518 13,058 C 14,925 12,240 D 3,692 16,877 E 16,406 4,735 F 4,040 2,871 G 21,391 6,190 H 3,684 5,080 I 3,272 4,340 J 3,029 2,182 K 5,442 9,846 A […]

Precinct analysis: Mayoral runoff

Believe it or not, the County Clerk’s office put out draft canvass reports last night. As a result, I can do the thing that I do. Here’s a look at the Mayor’s runoff race: Dist King Turner ===================== A 9,491 5,472 B 1,356 17,406 C 19,866 16,004 D 3,368 20,245 E 20,108 5,600 F 4,664 […]

Precinct analysis: “Extreme” voters

The Chron’s Mike Morris looks at undervotes in a way that I hadn’t thought of before. On Monday we looked at the phenomenon of the November undervote, when Houstonians made the (relatively rare) commitment to vote, but skipped one or more ballot items once they actually made it to the voting booth. In that analysis, […]

Precinct analysis: Age ranges

Let us one more time ask the question: Just how old were the voters in our 2015 election? Range All Pct ====================== 18-30 21,998 8.2% 31-40 32,359 12.1% 41-50 39,074 14.6% 51-60 58,610 21.9% 61+ 115,755 43.2% The short answer is “not as old as we’ve seen in previous elections“. That’s a high-water mark for […]

Precinct analysis: Where the voters came from

Yesterday we looked at the voting history of the people who participated in the 2015 election. Today we’re going to take a look at how those numbers broke down by Council district. Dist All 3 None Rest Total ==================================== A 4,686 7,238 8,173 20,097 B 4,873 8,829 8,738 22,440 C 11,471 17,129 18,588 47,188 D […]

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who voted in this election, and perhaps make some comparisons to past elections. Today we’re going […]

Precinct analysis: The Harris County bonds

Courtesy of Mike Morris at the Chron. It’s an open secret of local politics that, when Harris County needs voter approval for big projects, they turn not to suburban county residents but to those in the city of Houston’s urban core. Just look at this month’s elections: Though county offices are on the ballot in […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Last but not least, At Large #5: Dist Batteau Christie Nassif Moses ======================================= A 1,034 8,302 1,895 2,876 B 2,784 3,157 2,374 6,849 C 1,782 13,555 10,866 4,592 D 5,108 4,098 3,138 7,231 E 1,247 15,479 2,664 3,355 F 811 3,815 1,143 2,545 G 1,079 20,058 4,567 3,203 H 1,349 3,895 2,445 3,502 I 1,372 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #4

At Large #4 features a newcomer and a multi-time candidate in its runoff. Dist Edwards Hansen Blackmon Robinson Thompson Murphy Morales ==================================================================== A 3,707 572 662 2,378 2,565 1,844 2,702 B 10,732 306 1,296 2,109 1,160 327 1,477 C 11,309 1,226 1,189 6,688 3,891 2,967 3,911 D 12,636 400 2,691 2,618 1,559 542 1,902 E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #3

Only one candidate running for citywide office won outright in November. That candidate was first term CM Michael Kubosh in At Large #3. Here’s how he won: Dist Kubosh LaRue McElligott Peterson ========================================== A 8,782 1,042 835 3,152 B 8,988 1,526 1,251 3,541 C 16,414 2,314 1,409 10,138 D 12,074 1,599 1,367 4,385 E 15,033 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #2

At Large #2 was one of two such races featuring an incumbent that will go to a runoff. Dist Robinson Rivera Dick Davis Burks ============================================== A 3,715 1,679 3,982 3,586 1,281 B 5,283 1,243 1,649 3,405 4,335 C 14,736 2,571 6,379 5,446 2,002 D 6,008 1,644 1,632 4,285 7,131 E 5,247 2,596 7,431 6,012 1,549 […]