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Posts Tagged ‘precinct analysis’

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans — not just Georgia, but states like Texas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi. Even as […]

An early look ahead to the legislative races

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, will face Democratic challenger Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley. • HD-54. State Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen, […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92% 129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37% 130 16,313 7,227 […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Democratic Presidential primary

I love the smell of precinct data in the morning, don’t you? Here’s a breakdown of the Democratic Presidential primary vote for Harris County: Dist Bernie Hillary Bernie% Hill% ====================================== 126 2,315 4,649 33.04% 66.35% 127 2,621 4,905 34.54% 64.64% 128 1,756 3,532 32.46% 65.30% 129 3,425 5,247 39.24% 60.12% 130 2,376 3,692 38.89% 60.44% […]

Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

One last election to review: Dist Brown Frazer ====================== A 5,232 7,918 B 13,161 2,616 C 15,244 15,726 D 16,390 4,197 E 6,118 16,073 F 3,890 3,527 G 8,775 21,762 H 6,558 3,117 I 5,253 2,731 J 2,794 2,763 K 10,632 5,434 A 39.79% 60.21% B 83.42% 16.58% C 49.22% 50.78% D 79.61% 20.39% E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #5 runoff

Our last Council runoff review: Dist Christie Moses ====================== A 8,729 3,657 B 3,273 11,539 C 17,743 8,757 D 5,285 13,847 E 16,652 4,324 F 4,108 2,747 G 23,150 4,954 H 4,230 4,405 I 3,716 3,611 J 3,149 1,985 K 6,152 8,582 A 70.47% 29.53% B 22.10% 77.90% C 66.95% 33.05% D 27.62% 72.38% E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #4 runoff

Here we have the least competitive runoff of the six that were citywide. Dist Edwards Morales ======================= A 6,322 6,153 B 14,660 1,761 C 17,813 10,238 D 18,341 2,882 E 7,688 13,231 F 4,046 3,080 G 11,996 15,203 H 5,610 3,903 I 4,371 3,774 J 3,070 2,287 K 12,150 3,830 A 50.68% 49.32% B 89.28% […]

Shades of 1997

The Chron looks to the past to analyze Sylvester Turner’s runoff victory. As the Chronicle reported, voting in the Houston mayor’s runoff fell overwhelmingly along racial lines, with Sylvester Turner edging out a slight victory in part by securing 93 percent of the vote in the city’s majority-black precincts. King, meanwhile, took 71 percent of […]

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large #2

Now for a race that’s both a little easier and a little harder to understand, in At Large #2: Dist Robinson Davis ====================== A 6,193 5,825 B 7,698 7,508 C 18,432 8,938 D 9,941 9,840 E 8,762 11,677 F 3,557 3,233 G 13,439 13,197 H 5,677 3,026 I 4,570 2,919 J 2,773 2,336 K 8,592 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #1 runoff

Let’s move on to the At Large races. Here’s how the vote went in At Large #1: Dist Knox Provost ===================== A 8,758 4,042 B 2,518 13,058 C 14,925 12,240 D 3,692 16,877 E 16,406 4,735 F 4,040 2,871 G 21,391 6,190 H 3,684 5,080 I 3,272 4,340 J 3,029 2,182 K 5,442 9,846 A […]

Precinct analysis: Mayoral runoff

Believe it or not, the County Clerk’s office put out draft canvass reports last night. As a result, I can do the thing that I do. Here’s a look at the Mayor’s runoff race: Dist King Turner ===================== A 9,491 5,472 B 1,356 17,406 C 19,866 16,004 D 3,368 20,245 E 20,108 5,600 F 4,664 […]

Precinct analysis: “Extreme” voters

The Chron’s Mike Morris looks at undervotes in a way that I hadn’t thought of before. On Monday we looked at the phenomenon of the November undervote, when Houstonians made the (relatively rare) commitment to vote, but skipped one or more ballot items once they actually made it to the voting booth. In that analysis, […]

Precinct analysis: Age ranges

Let us one more time ask the question: Just how old were the voters in our 2015 election? Range All Pct ====================== 18-30 21,998 8.2% 31-40 32,359 12.1% 41-50 39,074 14.6% 51-60 58,610 21.9% 61+ 115,755 43.2% The short answer is “not as old as we’ve seen in previous elections“. That’s a high-water mark for […]

Precinct analysis: Where the voters came from

Yesterday we looked at the voting history of the people who participated in the 2015 election. Today we’re going to take a look at how those numbers broke down by Council district. Dist All 3 None Rest Total ==================================== A 4,686 7,238 8,173 20,097 B 4,873 8,829 8,738 22,440 C 11,471 17,129 18,588 47,188 D […]

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who voted in this election, and perhaps make some comparisons to past elections. Today we’re going […]

Precinct analysis: The Harris County bonds

Courtesy of Mike Morris at the Chron. It’s an open secret of local politics that, when Harris County needs voter approval for big projects, they turn not to suburban county residents but to those in the city of Houston’s urban core. Just look at this month’s elections: Though county offices are on the ballot in […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Last but not least, At Large #5: Dist Batteau Christie Nassif Moses ======================================= A 1,034 8,302 1,895 2,876 B 2,784 3,157 2,374 6,849 C 1,782 13,555 10,866 4,592 D 5,108 4,098 3,138 7,231 E 1,247 15,479 2,664 3,355 F 811 3,815 1,143 2,545 G 1,079 20,058 4,567 3,203 H 1,349 3,895 2,445 3,502 I 1,372 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #4

At Large #4 features a newcomer and a multi-time candidate in its runoff. Dist Edwards Hansen Blackmon Robinson Thompson Murphy Morales ==================================================================== A 3,707 572 662 2,378 2,565 1,844 2,702 B 10,732 306 1,296 2,109 1,160 327 1,477 C 11,309 1,226 1,189 6,688 3,891 2,967 3,911 D 12,636 400 2,691 2,618 1,559 542 1,902 E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #3

Only one candidate running for citywide office won outright in November. That candidate was first term CM Michael Kubosh in At Large #3. Here’s how he won: Dist Kubosh LaRue McElligott Peterson ========================================== A 8,782 1,042 835 3,152 B 8,988 1,526 1,251 3,541 C 16,414 2,314 1,409 10,138 D 12,074 1,599 1,367 4,385 E 15,033 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #2

At Large #2 was one of two such races featuring an incumbent that will go to a runoff. Dist Robinson Rivera Dick Davis Burks ============================================== A 3,715 1,679 3,982 3,586 1,281 B 5,283 1,243 1,649 3,405 4,335 C 14,736 2,571 6,379 5,446 2,002 D 6,008 1,644 1,632 4,285 7,131 E 5,247 2,596 7,431 6,012 1,549 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #1

This week I’m going to look at the five At Large Council races, beginning with At Large #1. Before I get into the district breakdown, here’s a number to consider: In Harris County, there were 76,675 undervotes in this race. The combined vote total for top two finishers Mike Knox (47,456) and Georgia Provost (28,402) […]

Precinct analysis: Districts with runoffs

District F was a three-way race, with challenger Steve Le leading first-term incumbent Richard Nguyen. Kendall Baker ran as a HERO hater, and finished third overall but did manage to come in first or second in nine precincts. I thought I’d take a look at those precincts to see if they’d tell me anything about […]

Precinct analysis: Did HERO hurt Juliet Stipeche?

It’s one theory. In the Houston Independent School District, trustee Juliet Stipeche on Tuesday became the first sitting HISD board member to lose since 1997. At that time, retired educator Larry Marshall defeated Clyde Lemon, a supporter of then-Superintendent Rod Paige. Stipeche, one of Superintendent Terry Grier’s most outspoken critics, fell to Diana Davila, who […]

Precinct analysis: Controller

Moving on to the office that is both second in prominence and last in ballot placement, the City Controller: Dist Khan Brown Frazer Boney Jefferson Robinson ===================================================== A 2,749 3,406 6,588 798 602 1,573 B 1,836 4,042 1,047 4,275 1,057 5,154 C 6,143 12,574 12,181 1,194 838 2,387 D 2,338 5,139 2,180 6,242 1,547 5,358 […]

Precinct analysis: City propositions

Not really much to see here, but here’s what things look like for Prop 1. Dist Yes No Yes% No% ======================================= A 6,271 13,110 32.36% 67.64% B 6,265 14,435 30.27% 69.73% C 26,781 19,544 57.81% 42.19% D 9,871 16,775 37.04% 62.96% E 8,211 24,713 24.94% 75.06% F 4,553 7,074 39.16% 60.84% G 13,358 26,555 33.47% […]

Precinct analysis: Mayor’s race

I now have draft canvasses. You know what that means. All data is for Harris County only. First up, the Mayor’s race: Dist Hall Turner Garcia King Costello Bell =================================================== A 1,906 4,587 3,509 6,265 1,522 1,129 B 2,494 15,947 2,159 459 259 277 C 2,575 10,951 6,804 12,121 4,894 7,451 D 4,060 17,033 2,637 […]

One more analysis of early vote turnout

From Greg: Sometimes the motivation to drive out one segment of voters to the polls has a disparate impact in an electorate. And sometimes the motivation in one constituency has an echo effect that motivates competing constituencies. A classic example of the latter was seen in the North Carolina Senate campaigns involving Jesse Helms (in […]

Day 8 EV 2015 totals: Breaking it down to districts

Day One of Week Two: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 73,903 23,560 97,553 43,279 2013 45,571 16,076 61,647 30,548 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. The second Monday in person totals for this year (12,895) are greater than […]

Who are the city voters?

Everybody knows that city of Houston elections are fairly low-turnout affairs. The general perception – and it’s one that I’ve echoed as well – is that the elections are dominated by the same voters, year after year. What I haven’t seen are the numbers to back up those assertions. With all that’s on the line […]

Morrison’s challenge

I often said last year that I wanted to get through the 2014 elections before worrying too much about the 2015 ones. I feel the same way this year, and thus don’t plan to spend much time writing about 2016 elections. But some stories are too important not to comment on, and this is one […]

Gilbert Pena

Let the man have his victory lap, but let’s not read more into his victory than there is. By the time Harris County’s conservative leaders fished for their car keys at their Election Night watch party, there were few candidates left to congratulate. Nearly every Republican had won, and each had earned a handshake or […]

Abbott and the Latino vote

The Trib drops a number on us. Along with his 20-point margin of victory, Gov.-elect Greg Abbott accomplished something on Election Day that many naysayers doubted the Republican could: He took 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. For Texas conservatives, Abbott’s performance indicated that Republicans are making headway among this increasingly crucial voting bloc, which […]

Kris Banks: Comparing turnout, or where the vote was lost

(Note: This is the first of two guest posts submitted by Kris Banks, past President of the Houston GLBT Political Caucus.) Democrats lost big last month. We lost at every level, from statewide all the way down to the countywide candidates. Every challenger and every incumbent lost. That first paragraph kind of defies the rules […]

Precinct analysis: Republican primary election

I’ve done the Democrats, so now let’s take a look at the Republicans. In this case, I did have a few specific questions in mind, so my approach here will be a little different. First, we all know that Steve Stockman’s performance art piece campaign against Sen. John Cornyn didn’t amount to anything, but did […]