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Posts Tagged ‘precinct analysis’

Precinct analysis: Age ranges

Let us one more time ask the question: Just how old were the voters in our 2015 election? Range All Pct ====================== 18-30 21,998 8.2% 31-40 32,359 12.1% 41-50 39,074 14.6% 51-60 58,610 21.9% 61+ 115,755 43.2% The short answer is “not as old as we’ve seen in previous elections“. That’s a high-water mark for […]

Precinct analysis: Where the voters came from

Yesterday we looked at the voting history of the people who participated in the 2015 election. Today we’re going to take a look at how those numbers broke down by Council district. Dist All 3 None Rest Total ==================================== A 4,686 7,238 8,173 20,097 B 4,873 8,829 8,738 22,440 C 11,471 17,129 18,588 47,188 D […]

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who voted in this election, and perhaps make some comparisons to past elections. Today we’re going […]

Precinct analysis: The Harris County bonds

Courtesy of Mike Morris at the Chron. It’s an open secret of local politics that, when Harris County needs voter approval for big projects, they turn not to suburban county residents but to those in the city of Houston’s urban core. Just look at this month’s elections: Though county offices are on the ballot in […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Last but not least, At Large #5: Dist Batteau Christie Nassif Moses ======================================= A 1,034 8,302 1,895 2,876 B 2,784 3,157 2,374 6,849 C 1,782 13,555 10,866 4,592 D 5,108 4,098 3,138 7,231 E 1,247 15,479 2,664 3,355 F 811 3,815 1,143 2,545 G 1,079 20,058 4,567 3,203 H 1,349 3,895 2,445 3,502 I 1,372 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #4

At Large #4 features a newcomer and a multi-time candidate in its runoff. Dist Edwards Hansen Blackmon Robinson Thompson Murphy Morales ==================================================================== A 3,707 572 662 2,378 2,565 1,844 2,702 B 10,732 306 1,296 2,109 1,160 327 1,477 C 11,309 1,226 1,189 6,688 3,891 2,967 3,911 D 12,636 400 2,691 2,618 1,559 542 1,902 E […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #3

Only one candidate running for citywide office won outright in November. That candidate was first term CM Michael Kubosh in At Large #3. Here’s how he won: Dist Kubosh LaRue McElligott Peterson ========================================== A 8,782 1,042 835 3,152 B 8,988 1,526 1,251 3,541 C 16,414 2,314 1,409 10,138 D 12,074 1,599 1,367 4,385 E 15,033 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #2

At Large #2 was one of two such races featuring an incumbent that will go to a runoff. Dist Robinson Rivera Dick Davis Burks ============================================== A 3,715 1,679 3,982 3,586 1,281 B 5,283 1,243 1,649 3,405 4,335 C 14,736 2,571 6,379 5,446 2,002 D 6,008 1,644 1,632 4,285 7,131 E 5,247 2,596 7,431 6,012 1,549 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #1

This week I’m going to look at the five At Large Council races, beginning with At Large #1. Before I get into the district breakdown, here’s a number to consider: In Harris County, there were 76,675 undervotes in this race. The combined vote total for top two finishers Mike Knox (47,456) and Georgia Provost (28,402) […]

Precinct analysis: Districts with runoffs

District F was a three-way race, with challenger Steve Le leading first-term incumbent Richard Nguyen. Kendall Baker ran as a HERO hater, and finished third overall but did manage to come in first or second in nine precincts. I thought I’d take a look at those precincts to see if they’d tell me anything about […]

Precinct analysis: Did HERO hurt Juliet Stipeche?

It’s one theory. In the Houston Independent School District, trustee Juliet Stipeche on Tuesday became the first sitting HISD board member to lose since 1997. At that time, retired educator Larry Marshall defeated Clyde Lemon, a supporter of then-Superintendent Rod Paige. Stipeche, one of Superintendent Terry Grier’s most outspoken critics, fell to Diana Davila, who […]

Precinct analysis: Controller

Moving on to the office that is both second in prominence and last in ballot placement, the City Controller: Dist Khan Brown Frazer Boney Jefferson Robinson ===================================================== A 2,749 3,406 6,588 798 602 1,573 B 1,836 4,042 1,047 4,275 1,057 5,154 C 6,143 12,574 12,181 1,194 838 2,387 D 2,338 5,139 2,180 6,242 1,547 5,358 […]

Precinct analysis: City propositions

Not really much to see here, but here’s what things look like for Prop 1. Dist Yes No Yes% No% ======================================= A 6,271 13,110 32.36% 67.64% B 6,265 14,435 30.27% 69.73% C 26,781 19,544 57.81% 42.19% D 9,871 16,775 37.04% 62.96% E 8,211 24,713 24.94% 75.06% F 4,553 7,074 39.16% 60.84% G 13,358 26,555 33.47% […]

Precinct analysis: Mayor’s race

I now have draft canvasses. You know what that means. All data is for Harris County only. First up, the Mayor’s race: Dist Hall Turner Garcia King Costello Bell =================================================== A 1,906 4,587 3,509 6,265 1,522 1,129 B 2,494 15,947 2,159 459 259 277 C 2,575 10,951 6,804 12,121 4,894 7,451 D 4,060 17,033 2,637 […]

One more analysis of early vote turnout

From Greg: Sometimes the motivation to drive out one segment of voters to the polls has a disparate impact in an electorate. And sometimes the motivation in one constituency has an echo effect that motivates competing constituencies. A classic example of the latter was seen in the North Carolina Senate campaigns involving Jesse Helms (in […]

Day 8 EV 2015 totals: Breaking it down to districts

Day One of Week Two: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 73,903 23,560 97,553 43,279 2013 45,571 16,076 61,647 30,548 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. The second Monday in person totals for this year (12,895) are greater than […]

Who are the city voters?

Everybody knows that city of Houston elections are fairly low-turnout affairs. The general perception – and it’s one that I’ve echoed as well – is that the elections are dominated by the same voters, year after year. What I haven’t seen are the numbers to back up those assertions. With all that’s on the line […]

Morrison’s challenge

I often said last year that I wanted to get through the 2014 elections before worrying too much about the 2015 ones. I feel the same way this year, and thus don’t plan to spend much time writing about 2016 elections. But some stories are too important not to comment on, and this is one […]

Gilbert Pena

Let the man have his victory lap, but let’s not read more into his victory than there is. By the time Harris County’s conservative leaders fished for their car keys at their Election Night watch party, there were few candidates left to congratulate. Nearly every Republican had won, and each had earned a handshake or […]

Abbott and the Latino vote

The Trib drops a number on us. Along with his 20-point margin of victory, Gov.-elect Greg Abbott accomplished something on Election Day that many naysayers doubted the Republican could: He took 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. For Texas conservatives, Abbott’s performance indicated that Republicans are making headway among this increasingly crucial voting bloc, which […]

Kris Banks: Comparing turnout, or where the vote was lost

(Note: This is the first of two guest posts submitted by Kris Banks, past President of the Houston GLBT Political Caucus.) Democrats lost big last month. We lost at every level, from statewide all the way down to the countywide candidates. Every challenger and every incumbent lost. That first paragraph kind of defies the rules […]

Precinct analysis: Republican primary election

I’ve done the Democrats, so now let’s take a look at the Republicans. In this case, I did have a few specific questions in mind, so my approach here will be a little different. First, we all know that Steve Stockman’s performance art piece campaign against Sen. John Cornyn didn’t amount to anything, but did […]

Precinct analysis: Democratic primary elections

I finally got around to asking for the canvass reports for the primaries in Harris County. I didn’t have any specific agenda in looking at the data from each, I just wanted to see what I could learn. Let’s start on the Democratic side with a look at the vote totals in each State Rep […]

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large races

I finally got a draft canvass report from the Harris County Clerk for the December runoff elections. Let’s take a look at the two At Large runoffs and see what we can learn about them. Here’s At Large #2: Dist Burks Robinson Burks % Rob % ===================================== A 2,145 2,331 47.92% 52.08% B 1,798 451 […]

How to assess the odds in HD134

Texpatriate informs us that two-term Rep. Sarah Davis will be getting a primary challenger in HD134 – Bonnie Parker, who lost to Davis in the 2010 primary, and who will unsurprisingly be attacking Davis from the right. There are three things I know about HD134: 1. Democrats have been urgently searching for a candidate to […]

Precinct analysis: Two quick takes

I had wondered if partisan affiliation might be a factor in the HISD 7 race between Republican incumbent Harvin Moore and Democratic challenger Anne Sung. Like Houston races, HISD Trustee races are officially non-partisan, but also like Houston races, people tend to know what team everyone plays for. What did the precinct data tell us? […]

Precinct analysis: At Large 1, 4, and 5

Last week, we looked at the competitive At Large Council races. Now let’s look at the three At Large races that weren’t competitive. First up is At Large #1, where CM Stephen Costello won a third term. Dist Costello Griffin Costello% Griffin% ========================================= A 5,465 4,784 53.32% 46.68% B 5,535 4,291 56.33% 43.67% C 15,767 […]

Precinct analysis: City Controller

Let’s move on to the Controller’s race, where incumbent Ronald Green held on to win a third term against challenger Bill Frazer. Dist Frazer Green Frazer% Green% ===================================== A 6,609 4,102 61.70% 38.30% B 1,637 10,035 14.03% 85.97% C 14,185 9,385 60.18% 39.82% D 3,035 13,682 18.16% 81.84% E 9,777 4,130 70.30% 29.70% F 2,829 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large 2 and 3

Lots of action, and lots of candidates in the At Large races this year. Let’s look at the two races that are going to the runoffs, At Large #2 and 3. First is AL2, in which first term CM Andrew Burks trailed challenger David Robinson after Election Day. Dist Robinson Rivera Burks Gordon =================================== A […]

Precinct analysis: The Dome and the jail

Now that precinct data is out, the Chron has an updated take on what sunk the Astrodome referendum. Overall, 53.4 percent of Harris County voters rejected the bond issue that would have renovated the long-vacant Dome into a convention and exhibit space. In Houston, 50.1 percent of the voters turned it down, while in unincorporated […]

Precinct analysis: Mayoral race

Precinct data arrived late on Friday, so you know what that means. I’ll be taking a look at all of the races this week. Let’s start with the main event, the Mayor’s race. Dist Drab Dick Cook Keryl Hall Parker Fitz Lane Perk =============================================================== A 59 2,439 231 64 2,911 7,072 100 148 78 B […]

The Mayor’s race in three numbers

1. Turnout In the 2009 runoff, there were 155,670 votes cast for Mayor. Annise Parker got 82,175 and Gene Locke got 73,495. In the 2011 general election, there were 118,414 votes cast for Mayor. Annise Parker got 60,135 and the other candidates combined for 58,279. To put this another way, there were 37,256 fewer votes […]

Precinct analysis: Congressional overs and unders

To wrap up my look at 2012 versus 2008 results for all the new districts, here’s how the 36 Congressional districts compared. Dist McCain Pct Obama08 Pct Romney Pct Obama12 Pct RIdx DIdx ============================================================================== 01 178,520 68.85% 78,918 30.44% 181,833 71.49% 69,857 27.47% 1.04 0.90 02 150,665 61.78% 91,087 37.35% 157,094 62.93% 88,751 35.55% 1.02 […]

Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008, Senate and SBOE edition

To follow up on my previous examination of how the 2012 election returns looked in State House districts compared to the 2008 returns, I now have the data to look at other types of districts as well. You can find it as well on the Texas Legislative Council’s webpage – here are the reports for […]