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Posts Tagged ‘President’

PAC Plus polls Latinos in Texas

May 21st, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
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BOR reported last week on a poll of Texas Latinos conducted by PAC Plus. They zeroed in on the questions that had to do with Latinos’ impressions of Republicans and Democrats. For the survey PAC+ interviewed 2,685 randomly selected registered Hispanic voters in Texas counties with the highest number of Latino eligible voters: Bexar, Dallas, [...]

From the “Simple Answers To Simple Questions” department

Apr 20th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
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Is Rick Perry the next Comeback Kid? Americans love a comeback story. Tiger Woods has clawed himself back on top of the pro golf tour after a nasty scandal involving nightclub waitresses, lingerie models and his wife swinging a 9-iron near his head. But the whole golf world is watching to see if he can [...]

Nate Silver takes another look at Texas

Mar 5th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
4 comments

It’s always about the numbers. Since President Obama’s re-election in 2012, Republicans have worried about what an increasingly diverse electorate will mean for their future as a national party. Democrats, meanwhile, have started talking about turning ruby red states like Arizona and Texas blue. How worried should Republicans be? And how realistic are those Democratic [...]

Trib poll shows Perry leading Abbott

Mar 5th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Make of this what you will. Gov. Rick Perry would defeat Attorney General Greg Abbott by a nearly 3-to-1 margin if a Republican gubernatorial primary were held today, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Such a contest might never come: Neither man has declared for that 2014 race, with each saying he [...]

Messing with the primaries

Feb 14th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
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It’s like deja vu all over again. State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, has filed a bill to move up the primary one month in even-numbered years, to the first Tuesday in February. Patrick said people in both parties should support the measure because it would give Texas a greater say in presidential elections. “I’m tired [...]

Is Hillary the key to turning Texas blue?

Feb 5th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Maybe, but it’ll take more than this to convince me. The Lone Star State is headed blue — the only question is WHEN Texas becomes a Democratic state. If Hillary Clinton runs for president, she will have a fighting chance of carrying Texas, which shares revolutionary demographic trends rewriting the rules of politics, and of [...]

Julian 2016?

Jan 8th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

I have five things to say about this. Texas Democratic powerbrokers are quietly promoting rising star Julian Castro as a consensus building leader with bipartisan support as they position the charismatic San Antonio mayor for the party’s 2016 presidential ticket. In Julian Castro, who vaulted into the American spotlight at the Democratic National Convention last [...]

Precinct analysis: Third parties revisited

Jan 3rd, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Politico has a question. Is Austin’s Travis County the nation’s Libertarian Party stronghold? The co-founders of a Libertarian political action committee based there make that case, arguing that the Texas locale is the “most Libertarian large county in America.” Wes Benedict and Arthur DiBianca of Libertarian Booster PAC note that 31 Libertarian candidates were on [...]

Getting out the vote in Bexar County

Dec 3rd, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Stace pointed me to this Express News story about the Bexar County Democratic Party’s ground game for the November election. Many factors influence the outcome of an election, and precise analysis is not always available. But putting $600,000 into a get-out-the-vote effort can’t hurt. Bexar County Democrats’ big victories in this month’s election surprised many [...]

This is what a full-scale Latino outreach program looks like

Dec 2nd, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

This is what I’m talking about. President Barack Obama’s campaign team realized even before Romney was nominated that the growing Latino vote was the key to a second Obama term. And they acted to sew it up with an early, sweeping and persistent effort. It paid off, and it’s not clear that Romney even saw [...]

Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Nov 16th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn Noriega ======================================== HD126 63.86% 36.14% 62.26% 37.74% HD127 70.57% 29.43% 67.93% 32.07% HD128 72.95% 27.05% [...]

Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

Nov 15th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for now is a comparison of how President Obama did in the various redrawn districts versus [...]

The third parties

Nov 14th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
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While I work my way through the precinct data in Harris County, we can keep looking at the county data for Texas from last week’s election. Here are the top and bottom ten counties by percentage of the vote for Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson: County Johnson % County Johnson % ============================================== Travis 2.72% Throckmorton [...]

How Latinos voted in Texas

Nov 12th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
6 comments

Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day. Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey included a national sample of 5,600 Latino voters, as well as 11 state specific samples [...]

First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

Nov 8th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
7 comments

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with comparison to 2008, is as follows: 2008 Votes Pct =========================== McCain 4,479,328 55.45% Obama 3,528,633 [...]

2012 election results

Nov 7th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
12 comments

As I type this there are still a number of unsettled races in Texas, so things may change between now and tomorrow morning after we’ve all had an insufficient night’s sleep. But here’s how they stand at this time, and I will use my what I’ll be looking for post as a jumping off point. [...]

Obama leads in poll of Harris County

Nov 1st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

More polling goodness for you. The poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and KUHF Houston Public Radio indicates Obama leads Romney in Harris County, but not by much. That gives some indication how election night might go for politicians running for offices that are down the ballot. The poll shows the president leading in Harris [...]

Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?

Oct 31st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls. In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued [...]

UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Oct 30th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
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Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The survey of likely voters found that 55 percent support Romney while 39 percent support the [...]

Endorsement watch: For Wendy Davis

Oct 22nd, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Very nice. Two state legislators are running to represent a demographically changing senatorial District 10: the incumbent, Democrat Sen. Wendy Davis, and Republican state Rep. Mark Shelton. Davis, who defeated an entrenched incumbent four years ago, did not take long to make her mark on the Senate, enhancing the populist image she honed as a [...]

Presidential campaign contributions in Texas

Oct 20th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
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I suspect there’s not much in this story that will surprise you. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign raised nearly twice as much money in the greater Houston area than that of President Barack Obama – most of it from wealthier upscale communities – but more people overall contributed to the president’s re-election, according to a [...]

YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

Oct 19th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely voters from the Lone Star state (recontacted from an initial September poll). In the race [...]

Mail ballots

Oct 12th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

Campos has been tracking mail ballot requests to the Harris County Clerk. Here is what the County put out yesterday evening: As of this evening we have approved 71,101 applications and sent out 67,376 ballots. We have received 19,468 voted ballots returned. 25,848 have been generated by the GOP and 20,866 by Dems. In an [...]

Lyceum poll: Romney 58, Obama 39

Oct 3rd, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

This one is just nuts. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, with 58 percent to the incumbent’s 39 percent, according to a new Texas Lyceum Poll. The same survey has Republican Ted Cruz leading Democrat Paul Sadler 50 percent to 24 percent in the [...]

How about those judicial races?

Oct 1st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

The Chron takes a look downballot. Democratic judges who surprised Harris County in a 2008 rout because of strong turnout for Barack Obama are bracing for a tough fight in November after seeing the GOP, which had a clean sweep in 2010, continue to bolster its position statewide. In the county’s 23 contested state district [...]

YouGov: Romney 52, Obama 41

Sep 24th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Another new poll of Texas, from YouGov: Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney holds a solid, eleven-point lead over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 52% Romney to 41% Obama, in a poll of 1,254 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov. In the race for Senate, Republican Ted Cruz holds a 50%-31% over Democratic candidate Paul [...]

What that Wilson Perkins poll really tells us

Sep 18th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

There’s something about that poll of Texas last week that I don’t think has gotten enough attention. I only mentioned it in passing myself, so I want to go back and spend a little more time on it. As I said at the time, I thought the poll’s racial distribution – 60% Anglo, 26% Latino, [...]

New pollster says Romney leads 55-40 in Texas

Sep 13th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
7 comments

It would figure that the day after I complain about a lack of polling data in Texas we get a fresh poll result for the state. Thanks to a lopsided lead among white voters, Romney is leading President Barack Obama 55-40, according to a poll from Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, which carries out surveys [...]

“Waiting for Godot” in Texas

Sep 12th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

I have three things to say about this. “It’s only a matter of time.” For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980. The appeal for Democrats is obvious. If President Obama, [...]

Sadler’s challenge

Sep 5th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Democratic Senate hopeful Paul Sadler is a strong candidate with limited resources. Where have I heard that before? In Victoria on a recent Saturday afternoon, the candidate for the U.S. Senate had the crowd on its feet, the shouts and applause washing over the meeting room like waves on the nearby Gulf. As he wrapped [...]

Courting the Ron Paul voters

Aug 30th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
4 comments

Good luck with that. Libertarian presidential candidate and would-be spoiler Gary Johnson smoked out new campaign cash here this week. But his hopes are just a pipe dream unless he wins over Republican voters loyal to never-say-quit candidate Ron Paul. “Hundreds” of Republicans have promised Johnson they will switch his way if the Republican National [...]

Romney-Ryan

Aug 12th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
No comments yet

Game on. You’ve probably read all you can stand to read about this by now since it was everywhere on the internets yesterday, but do read Charlie Pierce if you haven’t already – he’s the best cure for mainstream media stuffiness – and Michael Grunwald, who seems to have escaped the reality distortion field in [...]

From the “If pigs had wings” department

Jun 26th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

It’s never a bad time to construct a counterfactual. What if Rick Perry had never said, “Oops”? What if he could have, for Christ’s sake, just remembered that he had wanted to gut the Department of Energy? What if he hadn’t climbed into a tan coat and Brett Favre jeans and released that abominable Youtube [...]

Precinct analysis: GOP President and Senate in Harris County

Jun 18th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Though I didn’t have one originally, I now have a canvass of the GOP primary in Harris County from this year. Since it’s impossible for me to have data and not do something with it, I’ve taken a look at the Presidential and Senate results for each of the State Rep districts. Here are the [...]

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