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Posts Tagged ‘President’

UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 36

More polling locally. A new survey released Thursday by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic challengers for county wide office rising sharply against Republican incumbents. It also showed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a seven-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, which Hobby research associate and poll author Bob Stein […]

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]

UH Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38

Damn! Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has one of his slimmest leads yet over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Texas, 41 percent to 38 percent, according to a new poll among registered voters. Trump’s support falls within the survey’s margin of error, which is plus- or minus 3 percent, meaning the race is a statistical […]

Clinton campaign to run ads in Texas

It’s come to this. Hillary Clinton’ campaign is going on the air in solid-red Texas, a remarkable move by a Democratic presidential nominee as her Republican rival, Donald Trump, struggles across the country. Clinton is launching a one-week ad buy in the Lone Star State that highlights the Dallas Morning News’ recent endorsement of the […]

Republicans remain concerned about their turnout in Texas

Exhibit A: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is stepping up his travel for state Republicans amid concerns about GOP turnout in November. Cruz is set to attend a trio of events next week in North Texas aimed at getting out the vote, particularly among conservatives who have long made up his base. Cruz will appear […]

Flipping Fort Bend

FiveThirtyEight projects a national insight down to the local level. In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among […]

WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43

The margin keeps narrowing. After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night. The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by […]

Interview with David Cay Johnston

This interview is a little different than the ones I usually present. Barbara Radnofsky got in touch with me a couple of weeks ago to say that Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author David Cay Johnston was going to be in town to promote his new book, The Making of Donald Trump, and would I like […]

Dan Patrick doesn’t care about sexual assault

Such a moral exemplar you are, Danno. Amid a wave of reports of women alleging Donald Trump kissed or groped them without their consent, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrickmaintained Thursday that the Republican presidential nominee has effectively pushed the issue behind him. Patrick, who is Texas Chairman for Trump’s presidential campaign, initially addressed the scandal currently […]

Record registration numbers for Harris County

Nice. As registration closed, Harris County’s voter roster had grown by more than 6 percent since 2014, the steepest increase in 16 years. More than 323,890 new names have been added, bringing the county voter roll to more than 2.2 million. Harris County is not alone. The Texas Secretary of State’s office two weeks ago […]

The Trump dilemma

I’d almost feel pity for them, if they hadn’t brought this on themselves. Leading GOP elected officials — including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn — condemned the words but continued to back their candidate, and pro-Trump grassroots forces appeared set in their support for the […]

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 45, Clinton 38

This is post-debate but pre-“grab her by the pussy”. In a state where it is generally accepted that a GOP nominee is almost guaranteed a win in a presidential election, real estate mogul and presidential nominee Donald Trump has “under-performed” in Texas according to Pollster Brian Graham of Dixie Strategies. In the latest KTVT-CBS 11 […]

Chron overview of judicial races

In case anyone is paying attention to them. As Harris County goes, so go most of its judicial races. That truism appears to be good news for Democrats seeking to scoop up more district court benches in November, when two dozen criminal, civil and family court positions are up for grabs. Three of the benches […]

“Grab her by the p—-“

Donald Trump, ladies and gentlemen: Donald Trump bragged in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with women during a 2005 conversation caught on a hot microphone, saying that “when you’re a star, they let you do it,” according to a video obtained by The Washington Post. The video captures Trump talking […]

YouGov: Trump 50.1, Clinton 41.5

So says the YouGov Election Model for Texas. Here is how that works. The raw data for our analysis is a rolling sample of over 30,000 respondents to YouGov’s polling over the past two weeks, updated with around 3,000 new interviews every day; however turning that into state-level estimates involves several other sources of data […]

Endorsement watch: Who stands with Trump?

Texas Monthly wonders if any Texas newspaper will endorse Donald Trump. Between the three newspapers with the largest circulations in Texas—the Houston Chronicle, the Dallas Morning News, and the San Antonio Express-News—there have been exactly two endorsements of a Democratic presidential nominee in the last forty years (the Chronicle and Express-News backed Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, respectively). This […]

Registration versus turnout

Ross Ramsey throws a bit of cold water on the surge in voter registrations. Turnout isn’t nearly as volatile as registration. Over the past 10 presidential elections in Texas, the percentage of Texas adults registered to vote has gone as low as 65.3 percent in 1992 to as high as 85.4 percent in 2000. The […]

Chron overview of SBOE races

There are a few races of interest, though the usual bet is that nothing unusual will happen. Dakota Carter, a Democrat and underdog in District 6, said he got “fired up” to run for the board because he is tired of members manipulating the state’s curriculum to put it “more in line with politics rather […]

Endorsement watch: Three State House races

Possibly the only State Rep race endorsements we’ll get, depending on how much the Chron cares about the less-competitive races. House District 23: Lloyd Criss We endorse Lloyd Criss, a Democrat whom Texas Monthly rated as an outstanding freshman legislator back in 1979, the first of his six terms in office. Now the legislative expert […]

More DNC presence in Texas

Glad to see it, even if I’m not really sure what it means. The Democratic National Committee is expanding its presence in Texas as polls continue to show a closer-than-usual presidential race in the solidly red state. Texas is set to become the fourth state participating in the DNC’s Victory Leaders Council program, which establishes […]

More on Republican turnout concerns

It’s a thing that is happening, though it’s hard to say to what extent. On Monday, one of the most prominent Republicans in Texas has a warning for supporters that Texas could go blue this election. Governor Greg Abbott is sounding the alarm, citing recent poll numbers. Democrats couldn’t be happier, especially because the email […]

Clean Power Plan’s day in the DC court

We’ll see how it goes. Dozens of lawyers from the government, industry and public interest groups packed the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, to hear the divisive case that comes just weeks before a heated presidential election and illustrates how a President’s picks for the lower court might impact his own agenda. […]

Voter registration way up statewide

That’s a lot. Nearly 15 million people are now registered to vote in Texas, a state record. Texas currently has more than 14.8 million voters registered — over 1 million more than were registered in the 2012 presidential election, according to the Texas secretary of state’s office. Keith Ingram, director of elections for the secretary […]

Back to court for the Clean Power Plan

Here we go. One of the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s final acts on Earth may have been to doom it. Last February, on the final Tuesday of Scalia’s life, the Supreme Court handed down a 5–4 decision suspending the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan. It was a surprising development — a lower court panel that included a […]

McMullin will “appear” on the ballot

To the extent that a write-in candidate “appears” on the ballot, anyway. Texas voters will be able to vote for former CIA operative Evan McMullin for president in November. The Texas secretary of state’s office on Friday certified McMullin, who is running as an independent, as a write-in candidate for the general election. McMullin, a […]

Endorsement watch: Let your conscience be your guide

That Ted Cruz sure does stay firm to his principles, doesn’t he? U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed Donald Trump on Friday after months of withholding his support from the Republican presidential nominee who defeated him in the primaries. “After many months of careful consideration, of prayer and searching my own conscience, I have decided that […]

UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 34

I have many thoughts about this. Between September 1 and September 20, 2016, the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted a telephone survey of 550 Harris County registered voters as part of a larger Hobby School study on voter participation and engagement under the direction of Mark P. Jones, Renée Cross, and […]

Two more Clinton campaign offices opened in Texas

In Austin: The Democratic National Committee opened its Austin headquarters on Sunday. The move comes amid a surprisingly narrowing gap (given the longtime deep-red status of the state) between Clinton and her GOP rival, Donald Trump, for the presidency. The office is located at 61 N. Interstate 35 at Holly Street, serving as the base […]

Lyceum: Trump 39, Clinton 32

From the Texas Lyceum, another single-digit poll result. If the U.S. presidential election were held today, ballot tests show a tighter race at the top of the ticket in deep red Texas than recent history would suggest, according to independent poll results released today by the Texas Lyceum, the nonprofit, nonpartisan premier statewide leadership group. […]

ECPS: Trump 42, Clinton 36

Another state poll result to add to the list. A new Emerson College poll in Texas, which has long been a Republican stronghold, shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by only 6 points (42% to 36%), with 10% of respondents voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 6% for the Green Party’s Jill Stein and 6% undecided. […]

The local and state party perspective

This is the flip side of yesterday’s story about the national Democratic campaign opening an office in Houston. As long-beleaguered Texas Democrats look toward November, they see opportunity in the fallout from Trump’s rhetoric targeting Latinos and women. Surveys have shown Trump leading Clinton by only single digits in Texas. “There ain’t enough white males […]

More on the ground game here

A few days ago I wrote about the opening of a national Democratic campaign office here in Harris County. I had the opportunity to pose a few questions to the campaign over the weekend about this office and their larger plans. Here’s what we discussed: – The office is part of the coordinated campaign between […]

Endorsement watch: A Libertarian moment

The Chron thinks outside the box in endorsing for the Railroad Commission. Our editorial board interviews scores of candidates for political office every election year, but seldom do we find ourselves wholeheartedly endorsing a nominee from the Libertarian Party. Then again, seldom have we met a Libertarian candidate like Mark Miller. Ask this man anything […]

The ground game in Texas

The Chron looks at the Trump campaign in Texas, such as it is. Just over two months before the November general election, Bryant typifies the Trump campaign in Texas, a mostly invisible but active network of supporters that Republican Party officials hope will yield a double-digit victory in the Lone Star State, even as polls […]