Off the Kuff Rotating Header Image

Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

Houston Area Survey 2016: Harris County becoming more Democratic

Whoa. A majority of Harris County residents lean Democratic for the first time ever, propelled by plummeting support for Republicans among Latinos, according to a survey released Monday by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research. The finding, in the midst of a particularly divisive presidential campaign, could signal an important shift in arguably the […]

Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, […]

Runoff watch: Leftovers

Three last races that didn’t fit into any other categories. SBOE District 6 – Democratic Jasmine Jenkins and Dakota Carter, the two candidates that actually campaigned for this office in this three-way race, finished one and two in the voting in March. Carter collected all of the endorsements that I tracked, which may help him […]

Black Lives Matter takes an interest in the Harris County DA race

This will be worth watching. Inspired by voters in Chicago and Cleveland who booted top prosecutors last week with candidates who pledged more accountability in police shootings, Houston-area Black Lives Matter activists have started a #ByeDevon social media campaign to try to oust Harris County District Attorney Devon Anderson. #ByeDevon, which appears to have debuted […]

When are we going to get a general election poll of Texas?

As goes Utah… According to a new Deseret News/KSL poll, if Donald Trump becomes the GOP nominee, the voters of Utah would opt for a Democratic candidate for the first time in over 50 years. Poll respondents said they would support either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders over Trump, though Clinton was only two points […]

Reps. Green and Green want investigation of voting machine shortage

I have three things to say about this. Two Houston congressmen are asking the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate whether unequal distribution of voting machines and polling locations in Harris County disenfranchised minority voters during the March 1 primary election. In a letter dated March 15, U.S. Reps. Al Green and Gene Green, both […]

Abbott lies about vote fraud

Ross Ramsay calls him out for it, much more politely than I would have. The governor of Texas thinks that fraud in the electoral system that put him and others in office is “rampant.” He can’t back that up. Greg Abbott was asked on Monday what he thought about President Obama’s throwdown last week on […]

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 5,618 2,166 54.41% 28.33% 10.92% 129 10,906 5,812 4,288 46.71% 24.89% 18.37% 130 16,313 7,227 […]

Dan Wallach: The case for not letting everybody vote by mail

You know who Dan Wallach is by now. Voting systems and security are in his wheelhouse, and when he sent this to me in response to this, I was happy to queue it up. Vote by mail (VBM) is cheaper! It’s more enfranchising! Take your time and do it right! Yes, indeed, and why not […]

2016 primary reactions and initial impressions

First, a couple of minor notes. Rep. Byron Cook ultimately pulled out a win in his nasty and high-profile primary. That’s good news for Speaker Joe Straus and the general forces of “government that isn’t like a three-year-old coming off a sugar high”. Rep. Wayne Smith was forced into a runoff but did not lose […]

2016 primaries: Harris County

Though this will be the first entry published in the morning, it was the last one I wrote last night, and I’m super tired. So, I’m going to make this brief. Harris County Dem results – Harris County GOP results Democratic races of interest, with about 86% of precincts reporting District Attorney: Kim Ogg with […]

Primary Day is today

From the inbox: “Visit www.HarrisVotes.com to ensure you go to the correct voting location and to find your personal sample ballot for the Tuesday, March 1, Republican Party and Democratic Party Primary Elections,” said Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart, encouraging voters to use the information provided by the County Clerk’s election website before heading to […]

The case for letting everyone vote by mail

The Washington Monthly in an article written by a former Secretary of State for Oregon, lays it out. Presidential elections still attract a majority of America’s voters. For all other elections, however, democracy is mostly a spectator sport. In the 2014 midterms, just 83 million registered voters cast ballots—a nosedive of almost 10 million from […]

Final EV totals for the 2016 primaries

It all comes down to Tuesday now: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 177,088 64,431 2012 37,887 78,081 2016 85,816 131,145 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still see the SOS archive for 2008, with the final Dem totals here […]

New frontiers in social media campaigning

From Slate: Huey Rey Fischer identifies as a queer, vegetarian, Latino “progressive Democrat on a bicycle.” He is 23 years old, and he’s running for state representative in Texas’ District 49, which encompasses the University of Texas at Austin. A longtime incumbent is vacating the seat, and Fischer, who attended UT Austin, believes he can […]

Day 10 EV totals for 2016 primaries

One more day left to vote early. Vote tomorrow, or take your chances at a precinct location on Tuesday: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 143,169 49,373 2012 30,538 63,817 2016 65,454 98,152 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here, and the 2008 totals are here. You can still […]

Day 8 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Eight days down, three days to go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 98,980 35,332 2012 22,752 46,769 2016 45,389 66,135 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I do now finally have a copy of the daily resuits from 2008, which you can see here, with thanks to […]

UT/Trib poll: Clinton and Cruz lead in Texas

I’d been wondering when we were going to get a fresh poll for the Texas primary races. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders has narrowed considerably in Texas but remains in the double digits among the state’s likely Democratic primary voters, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The former secretary of state […]

Day 7 EV totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of Week Two is in the can: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 81,843 28,773 2012 20,058 41,447 2016 38,547 55,228 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers […]

Day 6 EV totals for 2016 primaries

We are one (short) week in, with what should be the bigger week for turnout coming up: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 66,756 23,851 2012 15,980 36,612 2016 32,233 44,844 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk […]

Checking in on Battleground Texas

They’re still here. So where does [Lon] Burnam see Battleground Texas in his plan to be the first Texas Democrat elected to a statewide office since 1994? “No comment,” he said, before adding as he walked away, “In 20 years of public service, that’s the first time I’ve ever said that.” Burnam’s response echoed that […]

Day Three EV totals for 2016 primaries

Three! Three days of early voting: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 28,464 12,092 2012 9,871 21,635 2016 18,398 25,954 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS […]

Day Two EV totals for 2016 primaries

Here you go: Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 19,578 8,654 2012 8,135 17,846 2016 14,001 19,376 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris County Clerk for 2008, so my reference for those numbers is the SOS archive for 2008, […]

Day One Ev totals for 2016 primaries

Day One of the 2016 primary election early voting is in the can. Woo hoo! How’d we do yesterday? Year Dem GOP ======================= 2008 10,049 4,130 2012 6,214 13,407 2016 9,636 12,720 For your reference, the 2016 totals are here, and the 2012 totals are here. I don’t have daily EVPA totals from the Harris […]

Once again with CD29

It’s all about the turnout. On a Gulfgate-area side street lined with union halls, Hillary Clinton’s Houston field office and U.S. Rep. Gene Green’s congressional re-election outfit sit mere doors apart, a coincidental marker of the anticipated link between their races. Green is squaring off against former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia in the region’s […]

Mary Beth Rogers’ prescription for Texas Democrats

I’m sure you’ve seen this article by Mary Beth Rogers, onetime campaign manager for Ann Richards, about how Democrats can compete and win statewide again. DEAR TEXAS DEMOCRATS… First, let’s get the numbers out of the way. Let’s use the analytics as a backdrop for all that we do, but not as the only factor […]

Chron overview of Sheriff primaries

No, it’s not 2008, though there are a couple of superficial similarities. On paper, Ed Gonzalez is a near-replica of former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia. The Latino Democrats served in the Houston Police Department and represented the same district on City Council. Eventually, both were appointed mayors pro-tem. Now, eight years after Garcia unseated […]

Is Green v Garcia about “the power of the Latino vote”?

To some degree, but I wouldn’t overstate it. When Adrian Garcia called last month asking for support in his congressional bid, East End community activist Jessica Hulsey did not hesitate. “I said, ‘Adrian, you’re my brother,’ ” Hulsey, 65, recalled. “ ’I identify with you, and I identify the need.’ ” Fresh off an unsuccessful Houston mayoral run, […]

Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

One last election to review: Dist Brown Frazer ====================== A 5,232 7,918 B 13,161 2,616 C 15,244 15,726 D 16,390 4,197 E 6,118 16,073 F 3,890 3,527 G 8,775 21,762 H 6,558 3,117 I 5,253 2,731 J 2,794 2,763 K 10,632 5,434 A 39.79% 60.21% B 83.42% 16.58% C 49.22% 50.78% D 79.61% 20.39% E […]

Shades of 1997

The Chron looks to the past to analyze Sylvester Turner’s runoff victory. As the Chronicle reported, voting in the Houston mayor’s runoff fell overwhelmingly along racial lines, with Sylvester Turner edging out a slight victory in part by securing 93 percent of the vote in the city’s majority-black precincts. King, meanwhile, took 71 percent of […]

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large #2

Now for a race that’s both a little easier and a little harder to understand, in At Large #2: Dist Robinson Davis ====================== A 6,193 5,825 B 7,698 7,508 C 18,432 8,938 D 9,941 9,840 E 8,762 11,677 F 3,557 3,233 G 13,439 13,197 H 5,677 3,026 I 4,570 2,919 J 2,773 2,336 K 8,592 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #1 runoff

Let’s move on to the At Large races. Here’s how the vote went in At Large #1: Dist Knox Provost ===================== A 8,758 4,042 B 2,518 13,058 C 14,925 12,240 D 3,692 16,877 E 16,406 4,735 F 4,040 2,871 G 21,391 6,190 H 3,684 5,080 I 3,272 4,340 J 3,029 2,182 K 5,442 9,846 A […]

Is Bill King a sign of a trend?

Probably not. Doesn’t mean that other candidates like him can’t do well, however. Bill King’s near-upset over Sylvester Turner in the Houston mayoral runoff stoked the hopes of some Republicans that the party soon could break Democrats’ 34-year hold on City Hall. Political experts, however, attributed King’s success more to his unique profile as a […]

Chron analysis of how Turner won

I suppose it’s a bit simplistic to say “he got more votes than the other guy”, but one way or the other that’s what happened. Sylvester Turner’s 24-year quest for the mayor’s office was realized by a narrow margin Saturday night, driven by overwhelming support from black voters and a robust effort to push supporters […]