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Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

Runoff Day for HISD special election

From the inbox: Saturday, Dec. 10, is Election Day for voters in HISD Trustee District VII and City of Baytown Council District 3. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. There are 178,717 registered voters in HISD Trustee District VII eligible to vote in the Runoff Elections. A map of the boundaries […]

Runoff early voting: Light turnout

Hey, remember that there’s a runoff for the special election to fill the HISD Trustee position in District VII? Well, early voting for it ended on Tuesday, and turnout so far is about what you’d expect for such an election. Here’s the EV by location report for the runoff, which encompasses two races: for Baytown […]

Time once again to discuss Latino political participation

Let’s jump right in. The long wait continues for Houston and Harris County residents eager for a steep uptick in elected Latino representation. Hispanic residents last year were 42 percent of the county population, up from 23 percent in 1990, yet Houston has yet to elect a Latino mayor, and no at-large City Council members […]

Precinct analysis: Gonzalez v Hickman

Ed Gonzalez scored a solid win for Sheriff, knocking out incumbent Ron Hickman to win the office back for Democrats. Let’s break it down. Dist Hickman Gonzalez Hickman% Gonzalez% ============================================= CD02 162,915 111,689 59.33% 40.67% CD07 139,292 113,853 55.02% 44.98% CD09 26,869 106,301 20.18% 79.82% CD10 81,824 36,293 69.27% 30.73% CD18 48,766 153,342 24.13% 75.87% […]

HISD special election runoff will be December 10

I don’t believe I’ve seen a news story about this. The runoff election for the top two candidates to fill the unexpired term of outgoing HISD District VII Trustee Harvin Moore has been set for Dec. 10. Candidates competing in the runoff are Anne Sung and John Luman. The runoff election winner will serve the […]

Precinct analysis: State courts

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s what I’m going to focus on here. Dist Green Garza Guzman Robinson R SJ Avg […]

Sustaining the Harris County Democrats’ success

All things considered, I feel reasonably optimistic about Democratic prospects in Harris County going forward, but I felt that way in 2008 as well, so I certainly understand the inclination to be cautious. Democrats swept Harris County last Tuesday in nothing short of a rout, claiming every countywide position on the ballot as Hillary Clinton […]

Precinct analysis: Hillary in Harris County

Let’s get started with the precinct data, shall we? Here’s a Chron story from the day after the election about how things looked overall in the county. The country’s most populous swing county turned a shade bluer Tuesday, when Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump in Harris County despite trailing nationally. Clinton’s commanding victory here is […]

Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do any better than their counterparts in 2008. Republican statewide candidates, on the other hand, were […]

Beto O’Rourke talking about the Senate

Another Democratic Congressman is thinking about trying for an upgrade. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, an El Paso Democrat, told The Texas Tribune he is considering running for the U.S. Senate. “I am,” the sophomore congressman said when Tribune CEO Evan Smith asked if O’Rourke is thinking about running for Senate in 2018 or 2020. U.S. […]

Initial thoughts: Statewide

See part 1 on Harris County here. The current statewide tally is Trump 52.39%, Clinton 43.34%. She received 3,848,617 votes to his 4,651,955. That’s an improvement of some 540K votes over Obama in 2012, which I certainly would have deemed acceptable going into Tuesday, while he added about 100K to Mitt Romney’s score. As with […]

Initial thoughts: Harris County

I’m still not quite ready to resume regular blogging. I’ve got a few things drafted from before the election, several of which are non-political, that I’ll begin to put in the queue, and a couple of ones that were political that may need to be amended now. For the time being, I’ve got some initial […]

Dems sweep Harris County

Hillary Clinton had a 100K lead in early voting in Harris County, and increased her lead as the night went on. The only countywide Republican who was leading early on was Mike Sullivan, but later in the evening, at the time when 80% of the Election Day vote was in, Ann Harris Bennett caught and […]

The new voters

One more data point before we get the actual data. A late surge of new voters helped Harris County achieve record early turnout and suggests that local registration drives paid off – although to which party’s benefit remains anyone’s guess until Tuesday night. While partisan primary voters dominated the first week of early voting, new […]

Today is Election Day

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart urges voters to prepare before heading to vote on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. “Harris County Voters can find their Election Day polling location and review the list of acceptable forms of identification required to vote by visiting www.HarrisVotes.com.” Unlike Early Voting, on Election Day, voters are required […]

Early voting, Day Twelve: Nearly a million

Here’s your final daily EV report and your updated tracker spreadsheet. The final tally from Friday was 105,005 in person votes and 2,882 more mail ballots returned. That brings us to 882,580 people showing up at an early vote location, 94,699 returned mail ballots, and 977,279 total early voters. There will no doubt be a […]

KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 52, Clinton 39

There’s one in every crowd. Real Estate Mogul and Republican Presidential nominee Donald J Trump has surged to a twelve point lead in Texas over Former Secretary of State and Democrat nominee, Hillary R. Clinton in the latest KTVT CBS 11 Dixie Strategies Poll. If the presidential election were held today, about 52 percent of […]

Early voting, Day Eleven: Last chance

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced within minutes after the polls opened this morning, that Harris County crossed the 700,982 voter benchmark setting a new record for early voters by personal appearance. With essentially two full days of Early Voting left for the November 8, 2016 Election, the record established during the […]

Early voting, Day Ten: Who are these people?

Are we seeing new voters in the early voting so far, or is it all the same old same old? More than a quarter of Harris County’s 2.2 million registered voters cast a ballot in-person or by mail last week, a 36 percent increase from 2012 and part of a statewide surge in early voting. […]

Early voting, Day Nine: A brief comparison

Here’s a comparison of where the voters who cast their ballots through the first eight days of early voting came from in 2012 and in 2016: Dist 12 Day 8 12 Total Day 8% 16 Day 8 % of 2012 ====================================================== HD126 24,461 38,858 62.9% 30,042 77.3% HD127 27,664 46,356 59.7% 37,466 80.8% HD128 24,540 […]

How turnout happens

If there are a lot of new voters turning out in Harris County this year, the Texas Organizing Project will be the reason why for a lot of them. The untapped power of the Latino electorate is one of the enduring motifs of modern Texas politics. If only Hispanic voters could be persuaded to show […]

Early voting, Day Eight: We do have a pretty good idea of who has been voting so far

Why such a mushy article about the state of early voting so far? Because Texas voters can use a single click to back an entire slate, the down-ballot candidates running countywide have ever-slimming chances of influencing their destinies. As polarization and straight-ticket voting grow, the outlook is even more challenging for judicial candidates, who do […]

Republicans: Still worried about the Trump effect in Texas

The continuing story. Texas Republicans are slowly coming to grips with the unthinkable: Hillary Clinton has a shot at winning the nation’s most iconic red state. The odds are long, they say, in a state that hasn’t voted Democratic for president in 40 years. But in recent polling data and early voting results, they are […]

Early voting, Day Six: A good first week for Democrats

There’s still a week to go, but so far, so good. Harris County residents cast more ballots in the first four days of early voting than five states did in the entire 2012 presidential election. Locally, the number of ballots cast over those days was 45 percent higher than the same period four years ago. […]

Early voting, Day Five: Maybe the lines will be shorter next week

Resources will be mobilized to ameliorate things. Harris County will add staff and equipment to early voting locations next week to help cut down long wait times fueled by a record surge of voter turnout, County Clerk Stan Stanart said. Typically, people head to early voting to skip the lines of Election Day, but voters […]

The Trump effect on the SBOE

The Trib covers some familiar ground. At least one SBOE race is “very much in play,” said Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones. He’s referring to District 5, where Democrat Rebecca Bell-Metereau is attempting to unseat incumbent Republican Ken Mercer for the third time. The district reaches from Austin to San Antonio, extending northwest […]

Early voting, Day Four: Just the facts

Here is your Day 4 EV report, and here as always is the spreadsheet that tracks early voting in Presidential elections going back to 2004. Long story short, another record-breaking day, with about the same volume (just over 76,000 in person votes) as on Wednesday. We are at over 366,000 total votes after four days. […]

Voter ID problems still abound

Hardly a surprise. This much is clear after two days of early voting in Texas: Legal wrangling over the state’s voter identification law is stirring confusion at the polls. Amid Texans’ mad dash to polling places this week, the front end of 12 days of voting before Election Day, civil rights groups and some voters […]

Donald who?

Never heard of him. As national polls show Hillary Clinton widening her lead just two weeks before the presidential election, Texas Republicans mostly have gone silent about the candidate at the top of their ticket, presidential nominee Donald Trump. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Trump’s Texas campaign chairman, is the only one who seems to be […]

Early voting, Day Three: The case for pessimism

Dave Mann tells Texas Democrats to put those rose-tinted glasses away. On Monday, the Real Clear Politics site declared that Texas is up for grabs in the presidential election. The shift comes after a series of polls showing a tight race in the state between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and makes for a dramatic […]

The Trump effect and the State Supreme Court

The Trib touches on a subject I addressed awhile ago. Three Republican members of the Texas Supreme Court running for re-election are facing Democratic challengers who say they may have a chance in the solid-red state with Donald Trump at the top of the ballot. Democrats point to recent polls that show Trump beating Hillary […]

Early voting, Day One: Hope you didn’t mind waiting on line

Lots of people were out there with you. After more than 18 months of intensive election coverage, early voting kicked off in Harris County on Monday with long lines at some polling locations. As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the […]

Early voting starts today

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced today that 46 locations will be open Monday, October 24 to Friday, November 4 where voters in the third largest County in the nation may cast ballots during the early voting period for the November 8, 2016 Election.  The total is approximately 25 percent more than […]

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]