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Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

What can we do to increase the odds of a downballot Democratic victory?

Yesterday, I raised the possibility of downballot Democrats winning statewide races if 1) polling in the Trump/Clinton matchup remained at or below the six point spread in the recent PPP poll and 2) Democrats did a better job voting all the way down the ballot than Republicans, as has been the case in recent Presidential […]

It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is Texas next? Across the country in recent days, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has suffered […]

PPP: Trump 44, Clinton 38

We knew this poll was coming, and it confirms what we have been seeing elsewhere. PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, […]

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans — not just Georgia, but states like Texas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi. Even as […]

Beatty’s memo

From the Trib: Texas Democrats are being told they have their “greatest opportunities in a generation” this November with Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee and majorities of voters viewing corruption as a major problem in state government. Austin-based Democratic pollster Leland Beatty argues, in a memo obtained by The Texas Tribune, that several […]

Once more on HD146

Christopher Hooks from the Observer was at Saturday’s festivities, and he files his report. And on Saturday, 24 precinct chairs met in a small room full of folding chairs at the Sunnyside Multi-Service Center in south Houston to pick Miles’ replacement. They adjudicated a fierce contest between [Shawn] Thierry and Erica Lee Carter, member of […]

Harvin Moore to resign as HISD Trustee

Best wishes. Harvin Moore, one of the Houston school board’s longest-serving members, said Thursday that he is resigning his seat. Moore, who has served on the board since late 2003, has asked the board to call an election for November, a year before his term is set to expire. Moore said he expects voter turnout […]

HD120 special election runoff decided

For completists only. Independent Laura Thompson has won the special election runoff to temporarily fill the Texas House seat of former state Rep. Ruth Jones McClendon, D-San Antonio. Thompson, a freelance writer, will be the first independent to serve in the Legislature in more than half a century, though her time will be limited: She […]

Voter ID law changes agreed to

We have a deal. Texas struck a deal Wednesday that will soften its voter ID law for the November general election — a development that lawyers suing the state say will make it easier for minorities to cast their ballots. The state reached the agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice and minority rights groups […]

Will Texas Republicans dislike Clinton as much as they dislike Obama?

Of course they will. I mean, come on. Texas Democrats will miss Obama. But so too will Texas Republicans. Those three syllables — O-Bah-Mah — were all it took for Republicans to signal what they stood against. “There was an element of vitriol against Barack Obama that just defies logic,” said Rodney Ellis, a Democrat […]

Pokemon Go get votes

This is a smart idea. Lazaros Sanchez, 25, often ventures to the Capitol on his lunch break. “There’s Pokémon all over the place,” he observed late Thursday morning after catching a Pokémon called Eevee. Now politicians are jumping on the trend. State Rep. Rodney Anderson, a Grand Prairie Republican up for re-election this fall, [organized] […]

What next for Julian Castro?

I can think of something for him to do. Housing Secretary Julián Castro was long touted as a possible running mate for Hillary Clinton, but when the call came Friday informing him that the presumptive Democratic nominee had picked someone else, he wasn’t entirely surprised. “It’s disappointing, of course,” Castro said in a telephone interview […]

What it will take to win the District Court of Appeals benches

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that one place on the local ballot where Democrats could potentially gain some real ground is with the district Courts of Appeals. There are no competitive Congressional or State Senate races, the one competitive State House race in HD144 would be Democratic-favored in any Presidential year, and the countywide […]

Gallego claims poll lead over Hurd in CD23

Just another item to add to the list of reasons why Donald Trump is and has been bad news for Texas Republicans. Voters in the district, which is the largest Congressional district in the country which is not its own state, stretching from northwest Bexar County to El Paso, have an ‘overwhelmingly negative’ view of […]

Trump’s white voter problems

Add another group to the long list of those who can’t stand Donald Trump. Wanda Melton has voted for every Republican presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1980, but now the Georgia grandmother plans to cross over to support Democrat Hillary Clinton. “I’m not a real fan of Hillary,” Melton says from her office in […]

Another view of Democratic goals for 2016

Sounds about right. Some Democrats say Clinton has a chance at winning a majority in Texas, where interest is heightened because U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro has been mentioned as a possible Clinton running mate. Castro said Friday that he isn’t being vetted as one. They’re looking for Trump’s rhetoric to help […]

Mixed signals on voter registration

It’s mostly good news, but it could be better. While nonpartisan groups say funding is lagging to sign up Latinos to vote in the November election, voter registrations — likely fueled by Donald Trump’s salvos against people of Mexican heritage — are well ahead of 2012 along the Texas border and in the state’s largest […]

Three polling-related observations

This story is about the tough spot that Donald Trump is putting professional Latino Republicans in. I have no sympathy for any of them, of course, but what caught my eye in this article was this little nugget: “I’m not on the anti-Trump movement like some of my colleagues who I talk to every day, […]

Today’s the day for the Commissioners Court selection process

I’m sure we’re all ready for it to be over. Just last week, state Sen. Rodney Ellis claimed he had enough support from Democratic Party chairs to become the next Harris County commissioner for Precinct 1. Not that he’s resting easy in a race as unusual as this one. “I do wake up in the […]

What should the goals for 2016 be for Texas Dems?

Given that carrying the state is highly unlikely, what else is there to aim for this year? So will Democrats make a presidential play for Texas or not? Presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton stoked the issue last month by saying she could win the Lone Star State. Texas Republicans responded with ridicule, pointing to their party’s […]

Hillary Clinton on the Trump effect in Texas

I have three things to say about this. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton posed a wild notion in a new interview: She could carry Texas in the fall. In a newly published New York magazine interview with reporter Rebecca Traister, Clinton was asked which traditionally red states she might make a play for against likely […]

Republican primary runoff results

Harris County results Statewide results Trib liveblog Your new State Senators are Bryan Hughes, who defeated his former House colleague David Simpson, and Dawn Buckingham, who defeated former Rep. Susan King. Hughes is a Dan Patrick buddy, who will fit right in to the awfulness of the upper chamber. Buckingham is a first-time officeholder who […]

Primary runoff day is today

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart strongly urges voters to visit www.HarrisVotes.com to find their designated Election Day polling location for the May 24, Primary Runoff Election.   There, voters can also find their personal sample ballot and the answers to most of their voting questions. “In Runoff Elections, there are significantly less […]

Final runoff early voting numbers

Here are your final early voting numbers for the Republican and Democratic primary runoffs in Harris County. Note that in both cases, mail ballots have accounted for the majority of the total so far: On the Dem side, there have been 10,913 mail ballots to 10,364 in-person votes, and for the Rs it’s 15,297 to […]

Last day of early voting is today

Early voting for the primary runoffs is going on right now, but today is the last day for it. See here for the locations – the time is 7 AM to 7 PM – and take advantage of your last chance to vote early. You can of course vote on Tuesday, May 24, at a […]

Overview of the Harris County GOP Chair runoff

This is the Republican runoff I’m most interested in. Two years after wresting control of the Harris County Republican Party, Paul Simpson is facing an unexpected runoff challenge from political newcomer Rick Ramos in a race that again pits establishment fiscal conservatives against a group of socially minded GOP kingmakers. Simpson finished second with 39 […]

The Donald is spurring people to register to vote

Just another data point for your consideration. Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border. Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 […]

Keep an eye on 2018, too

From Greg Abbott’s campaign Facebook page: And from the greasy lips of Dan Patrick: There are some who say that they could never vote for Donald Trump — in fact, I was one of those people early on in this presidential race. But conservatives and Republicans unite around ideas and principles, and when we examine […]

Early voting ends for HD139 special election

Here are the final early voting totals from the HD139 special election. The disparity between absentee ballots and in-person votes is pretty amazing, isn’t it? I’m going to guess that the Saturday in-person total will be less than the 200 early votes, making the overall total in the 1500 to 1600 range. As I noted […]

Austin Uber referendum update

There’s still a crapload of money being spent by Uber and Lyft to win this thing. In the last month, Ridesharing Works for Austin – the PAC established by transportation network companies Uber and Lyft – raised $4.9 million and spent $4.6 million promoting Prop. 1, the TNC-supported ride-hailing ordinance. With another million in the […]

Houston Area Survey 2016: Harris County becoming more Democratic

Whoa. A majority of Harris County residents lean Democratic for the first time ever, propelled by plummeting support for Republicans among Latinos, according to a survey released Monday by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research. The finding, in the midst of a particularly divisive presidential campaign, could signal an important shift in arguably the […]

Still debating the Trump effect in Texas

This time with input from trained professionals. Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, […]

Runoff watch: Leftovers

Three last races that didn’t fit into any other categories. SBOE District 6 – Democratic Jasmine Jenkins and Dakota Carter, the two candidates that actually campaigned for this office in this three-way race, finished one and two in the voting in March. Carter collected all of the endorsements that I tracked, which may help him […]

Black Lives Matter takes an interest in the Harris County DA race

This will be worth watching. Inspired by voters in Chicago and Cleveland who booted top prosecutors last week with candidates who pledged more accountability in police shootings, Houston-area Black Lives Matter activists have started a #ByeDevon social media campaign to try to oust Harris County District Attorney Devon Anderson. #ByeDevon, which appears to have debuted […]