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Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

PPP: Abbott 51, Davis 37

Another discouraging poll from PPP. In the Governor’s race Greg Abbott’s at 51% to 37% for Wendy Davis. Those numbers are largely unchanged from our last poll of the state in early November when Abbott had a 50/35 advantage. Davis had a 39/29 favorability rating right after her famous filibuster last June, but since then […]

Don’t forget about Kesha

From the HuffPo: Texas Democrats are working hard in the U.S. Senate race — against a member of their own party. Activists in the state want to make sure that Kesha Rogers doesn’t get their party’s Senate nomination because she is a follower of Lyndon LaRouche, who heads a fringe political movement that has been […]

GOP primary turnout comparison

There’s been plenty of focus on Democratic turnout in this past primary, and while Republican turnout gets a nod in there, I haven’t seen it be the focus of any stories yet. In part, I suspect that’s because Wendy Davis and Bill White are a ready-made comparison, but Greg Abbott was essentially unopposed while Rick […]

Enough with analyzing Democratic primary turnout already

Seriously, enough of this. Republicans saw a turnout of 11.4 percent of registered voters, or 1.5 million people, in 2010 when their primary featured the long-awaited clash between Gov. Rick Perry and then-U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The GOP primary for governor this year saw 9.8 percent turnout, or more than 1.3 million voters. Democratic […]

Comparing Davis and White

In 2010, Bill White received 517,487 votes in the Democratic primary, for 76.0% of the vote. Wendy Davis just received 432,065 votes, for 79.1% of the total but 85,422 fewer votes than White. As is always the case, the change was not distributed uniformly. Davis picked up more votes than White in some counties, and […]

Rasmussen: Abbott 53, Davis 41

We have our first non-UT/Trib poll result for this cycle. The latest statewide survey of Likely Texas Voters shows Abbott with 53% support to 41% for Davis. At this early point in the campaign, there are surprisingly few voters who haven’t already made up their minds: One percent (1%) likes some other candidate in the […]

Davis and South Texas

I have three things to say about this. Democrats are banking on the Hispanic vote as a key part of their strategy for finding a way back into state office, but Sen. Wendy Davis lost several heavily Latino South Texas counties to a little-known rival on her way to securing the Democratic nod for governor. […]

Primary results: Harris County

The big news here is that there were no surprises on the Democratic side, in particular no unpleasant surprises. By far the best news was that Kim Ogg easily bested Lloyd Oliver in the primary for DA, with over 70% of the vote. I doubt we’ve seen the last of this particular plague on our […]

Primary Day is today

Today is the day when we begin to get a temporary respite from the mailers, robocalls, and TV/radio ads, as the people who didn’t vote early make their way to the ballot box for the primaries. In Harris County, a list of Democratic polling places is here and a list of Republican polling places is […]

Early Voting concludes for the primary

Here are your final daily early voting totals for the March primaries in Harris County. As is usually the case, the last day was the biggest. Republicans ended up with 75,400 early votes, Democrats with 30,108; that’s about 10,000 more R early votes than in 2010, and about 10,000 fewer D early votes. In 2010, […]

UT/TT poll: Abbott 47, Davis 36

The Trib publishes its second poll of the Texas gubernatorial race. After what are shaping up to be easy primary wins in March for the leading gubernatorial candidates, Republican Greg Abbott starts the general election race for governor with an 11-point lead over Democrat Wendy Davis, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. […]

Early voting, one (six day) week in

We have one week completed for early voting, though it was only a six day week thanks to the Presidents Day holiday. Here are the daily totals from the County Clerk. Republicans continue to be the majority of early voters in Harris County, by almost a 3-1 margin. I thought it might be interesting to […]

First day of early voting

Here are the Day One primary early voting totals, which was reasonably heavy and which went according to prediction, with most of the votes on the Republican side. The Chron preview story lays it out. Early voting for the March 4 primaries begins Tuesday with Harris County Republican Party Chairman Jared Woodfill predicting a turnout […]

A closer look at the turnout issue in 2014

I wrote yesterday about turnout for this year’s election. The main problem that Democrats face this year is that turnout has basically been flat for them since 2002 in the off year elections. I began to write a post to illustrate this last year, back when Battleground Texas was being viewed as a long-term experiment […]

Early voting begins tomorrow for the March 4 primary

It’s that time again. Here’s a message from County Clerk Stan Stanart, via the inbox: As early voting gets underway for the March 4, 2014 Democratic and Republican Party Primary Elections, Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart reminds voters that photo identification is required to vote at the polls. Early voting will take place from February […]

The turnout issue in 2014

Two recent articles of interest, both about the nature of the electorate in non-Presidential years. First, via Ed Kilgore, who has been beating the drum about the volatility of the Democratic base, comes this NYT story about what the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) hopes to do about it as it has to defend numerous […]

Celia Israel wins HD50 special election runoff

Congrats, Rep.-elect Celia Israel. In the special runoff election for District 50 in the Texas House, Democrat Celia Israel took the lead after early voting. Israel, a Realtor, earned 58.8 percent of the early vote, and Republican Mike VanDeWalle, a chiropractor, took 41.1 percent. The total number of ballots cast during the early voting period, […]

The counties we aren’t going to win are just as important as the counties we will win

Collin County is a Republican stronghold. It’s also the kind of place that Democrats need to make gains in order to be competitive. That’s a tough thing to do when there’s little hope for winning the county or taking a legislative seat based in the county. But the needle needs to be moved, and the […]

Why not three?

Greg suggests a couple of tweaks to term limits. » Fix the JoJo exclusion. The statute, as written, is amazingly short and simple: Section 6a. – Limitation of terms. No person, who has already served two full terms, shall be eligible to file for that same office. The statute is also amazingly unequal in how […]

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large races

I finally got a draft canvass report from the Harris County Clerk for the December runoff elections. Let’s take a look at the two At Large runoffs and see what we can learn about them. Here’s At Large #2: Dist Burks Robinson Burks % Rob % ===================================== A 2,145 2,331 47.92% 52.08% B 1,798 451 […]

Yes, Council is short on women

It is what it is. The Houston City Council will have its fewest women in 15 years this January, which political observers called a troublesome regression for one of the most diverse cities in the U.S. Just two women will remain on the 16-member council. And for the first time in about 25 years, a […]

Runoff results: Rough day for incumbents

I have no complaint about the results. With all precincts reporting, controversial first-term council incumbents Helena Brown, in northwest Houston’s District A, and Andrew C. Burks Jr., in At-Large Position 2, fell to their challengers, as did HCC trustees Yolanda Navarro Flores and Herlinda Garcia. Brown lost her rematch with Brenda Stardig, the incumbent she […]

Final EV totals

Here’s the final Harris County EV tally for the 2013 runoff, and here’s how the numbers stack up against the four most recent citywide runoff elections that did not include a Mayoral race. Year Absent Early E-Day Total Absent% Early% E-Day% ============================================================ 2005 5,350 8,722 24,215 38,287 13.97% 22.78% 62.25% 2007s 5,464 7,420 11,981 24,865 […]

District D runoff overview

Clearly, it’s Runoff Overview Week at the Chron. Whittled down from 12 candidates to two last month, the Houston City Council District D race is a David-and-Goliath runoff. Towering Dwight Boykins, 50, narrowly missed clinching the general election outright with 43 percent of the vote – three times the strength of his runoff opponent. He […]

District A runoff overview

It’s the same old story, just a little louder this time. Three years ago, when city voters narrowly approved what would become a controversial monthly drainage fee to fund $8 billion of street and flood projects in the next two decades, City Council District A stood out as an exception. While the charter amendment that […]

Last day of runoff early voting

From the inbox: “Tuesday, December 10th is the last day of Early voting for the City of Houston and Houston Community College System Runoff Election,” noted Harris County Clerk and Chief Election Official, Stan Stanart today as he urged voters to take advantage of what remains of the early voting period. “Your vote could make […]

Runoff voting is underway

So early voting is underway for the City of Houston and HCC runoffs. Day One totals are here, and Campos ponders their locations. I’ll take a crack at projecting turnout once the EV totals are in, but if you don’t want to wait that long, here’s a quick and dirty shortcut. In three of the […]

Bob Stein on the District I runoff

I’ll cut to the chase and just excerpt the conclusion of Rice poli sci prof Bob Stein’s analysis of the District I runoff between Graci Garces and Robert Gallegos. The runoff election in District I should be highly competitive with the slight advantage to Garces. Gallegos must rely on turning out [Leticia] Ablaza’s supporters, who […]

More on LVdP for Lite Guv

Mostly from Monday’s Lone Star Project news roundup email. AP: Texas Democrats offering stark contrast. Texas voters won’t have a hard time telling the difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates next year. With the addition of San Antonio Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, attorney Sam Houston and party activist Steve Brown last week, the […]

Where the early vote was

As you know, I thought that the high turnout we were seeing in Early Voting for this past election was not so much an indicator of high turnout but of a shift in voting behavior similar to what we had seen in even-year elections. That prediction was incorrect – final turnout was higher than I […]

Precinct analysis: City Controller

Let’s move on to the Controller’s race, where incumbent Ronald Green held on to win a third term against challenger Bill Frazer. Dist Frazer Green Frazer% Green% ===================================== A 6,609 4,102 61.70% 38.30% B 1,637 10,035 14.03% 85.97% C 14,185 9,385 60.18% 39.82% D 3,035 13,682 18.16% 81.84% E 9,777 4,130 70.30% 29.70% F 2,829 […]

Hoang to challenge Vo

Soon-to-be-former CM Al Hoang is not sitting still in the wake of his unexpected electoral loss. Houston City Councilman Al Hoang, who narrowly lost his reelection bid in a surprise upset last week, has filed paperwork to challenge state Rep. Hubert Vo for his District 149 seat next fall. There is much overlap between Hoang’s […]

Tactics are nice, but turnout is key

The main thing I learned in this story about Wendy Davis’ national connections is that at least one person in the state gets what she will really need to win. “I’m going back home to Texas and walking door to door,” said Brian Stansbury, a lawyer from Texas who has lived in Washington for more […]

Precinct analysis: At Large 2 and 3

Lots of action, and lots of candidates in the At Large races this year. Let’s look at the two races that are going to the runoffs, At Large #2 and 3. First is AL2, in which first term CM Andrew Burks trailed challenger David Robinson after Election Day. Dist Robinson Rivera Burks Gordon =================================== A […]