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Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

Mary Beth Rogers’ prescription for Texas Democrats

I’m sure you’ve seen this article by Mary Beth Rogers, onetime campaign manager for Ann Richards, about how Democrats can compete and win statewide again. DEAR TEXAS DEMOCRATS… First, let’s get the numbers out of the way. Let’s use the analytics as a backdrop for all that we do, but not as the only factor […]

Chron overview of Sheriff primaries

No, it’s not 2008, though there are a couple of superficial similarities. On paper, Ed Gonzalez is a near-replica of former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia. The Latino Democrats served in the Houston Police Department and represented the same district on City Council. Eventually, both were appointed mayors pro-tem. Now, eight years after Garcia unseated […]

Is Green v Garcia about “the power of the Latino vote”?

To some degree, but I wouldn’t overstate it. When Adrian Garcia called last month asking for support in his congressional bid, East End community activist Jessica Hulsey did not hesitate. “I said, ‘Adrian, you’re my brother,’ ” Hulsey, 65, recalled. “ ’I identify with you, and I identify the need.’ ” Fresh off an unsuccessful Houston mayoral run, […]

Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

One last election to review: Dist Brown Frazer ====================== A 5,232 7,918 B 13,161 2,616 C 15,244 15,726 D 16,390 4,197 E 6,118 16,073 F 3,890 3,527 G 8,775 21,762 H 6,558 3,117 I 5,253 2,731 J 2,794 2,763 K 10,632 5,434 A 39.79% 60.21% B 83.42% 16.58% C 49.22% 50.78% D 79.61% 20.39% E […]

Shades of 1997

The Chron looks to the past to analyze Sylvester Turner’s runoff victory. As the Chronicle reported, voting in the Houston mayor’s runoff fell overwhelmingly along racial lines, with Sylvester Turner edging out a slight victory in part by securing 93 percent of the vote in the city’s majority-black precincts. King, meanwhile, took 71 percent of […]

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large #2

Now for a race that’s both a little easier and a little harder to understand, in At Large #2: Dist Robinson Davis ====================== A 6,193 5,825 B 7,698 7,508 C 18,432 8,938 D 9,941 9,840 E 8,762 11,677 F 3,557 3,233 G 13,439 13,197 H 5,677 3,026 I 4,570 2,919 J 2,773 2,336 K 8,592 […]

Precinct analysis: At Large #1 runoff

Let’s move on to the At Large races. Here’s how the vote went in At Large #1: Dist Knox Provost ===================== A 8,758 4,042 B 2,518 13,058 C 14,925 12,240 D 3,692 16,877 E 16,406 4,735 F 4,040 2,871 G 21,391 6,190 H 3,684 5,080 I 3,272 4,340 J 3,029 2,182 K 5,442 9,846 A […]

Is Bill King a sign of a trend?

Probably not. Doesn’t mean that other candidates like him can’t do well, however. Bill King’s near-upset over Sylvester Turner in the Houston mayoral runoff stoked the hopes of some Republicans that the party soon could break Democrats’ 34-year hold on City Hall. Political experts, however, attributed King’s success more to his unique profile as a […]

Chron analysis of how Turner won

I suppose it’s a bit simplistic to say “he got more votes than the other guy”, but one way or the other that’s what happened. Sylvester Turner’s 24-year quest for the mayor’s office was realized by a narrow margin Saturday night, driven by overwhelming support from black voters and a robust effort to push supporters […]

Precinct analysis: Mayoral runoff

Believe it or not, the County Clerk’s office put out draft canvass reports last night. As a result, I can do the thing that I do. Here’s a look at the Mayor’s runoff race: Dist King Turner ===================== A 9,491 5,472 B 1,356 17,406 C 19,866 16,004 D 3,368 20,245 E 20,108 5,600 F 4,664 […]

Other runoff results

Here are the rest of the winners from yesterday: Controller: Chris Brown At Large #1: Mike Knox At Large #2: CM David Robinson At Large #4: Amanda Edwards At Large #5: CM Jack Christie District F: Steve Le District H: Karla Cisneros District J: CM Mike Laster HISD II: Rhonda Skillern-Jones HISD III: Manuel Rodriguez […]

Turner defeats King

It was close, but he led throughout. State Rep. Sylvester Turner won the Houston mayor’s race with a down-to-the-wire finish to edge businessman Bill King Saturday. While Turner won the most ballots in early voting, King narrowed the gap quickly on Election Day. “We thought the early vote was going to be very close,” King […]

The ground game

Where we are with one day to go. The neck-and-neck Houston mayor’s race has become an all-out ground war in the final days before Saturday’s runoff election as Sylvester Turner and Bill King turn to local Democratic and Republican party operatives to get out the vote in what is putatively a nonpartisan contest. Democrats, labor […]

KHOU/KUHF poll: Tuner 38, King 38

We have a tie, according to the latest poll. Sylvester Turner and Bill King are now locked in a dead heat in the race for Houston mayor, according to the newly released KHOU-News 88.7 Poll of likely voters. The survey shows both candidates supported by 38 percent of surveyed voters, with roughly one-quarter of voters […]

Final EV 2015 runoff totals

And we’re done: Date Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 11/15 61,008 21,141 82,149 42,938 12/15 86,233 27,153 113,386 39,649 The runoff numbers are here, and the final EV totals for November are here. I had guessed that the final EV total would be between 100,000 and 110,000, so I was off by a little bit. […]

Day 5 EV 2015 runoff totals

Two more early voting days to go: Date Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 11/15 48,027 21,141 69,168 42,938 12/15 50,257 22,116 72,373 39,649 The runoff numbers are here, and the final EV totals for November are here. Day Five of runoff early voting was the Sunday half-day, while Day Five of November early voting is […]

Day 3 EV 2015 runoff totals

Here we go: Date Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 11/15 27,596 18,196 45,792 41,994 12/15 35,756 22,116 57,872 39,649 The runoff numbers are here, and the final EV totals for November are here. Believe it or not, we’re almost halfway through early voting – basically, today is Hump Day for EV. After today, there are […]

Dueling runoff polls: King 48, Turner 43 (HRBC) – Turner 47, King 40 (internal)

From the inbox yesterday morning: The Houston Realty Business Coalition (HRBC) released a poll of 300 active voters today measuring support of Mayoral candidates in the December runoff election. “Bill King has built a broad base of support throughout the City of Houston,” said Chairman Alan Hassenflu. “Bill King is the only candidate offering thoughtful […]

Precinct analysis: “Extreme” voters

The Chron’s Mike Morris looks at undervotes in a way that I hadn’t thought of before. On Monday we looked at the phenomenon of the November undervote, when Houstonians made the (relatively rare) commitment to vote, but skipped one or more ballot items once they actually made it to the voting booth. In that analysis, […]

Day One EV 2015 runoff totals

Here we go: Date Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 11/15 8,889 14,240 23,129 40,626 12/15 11,144 18,138 29,282 39,646 The runoff numbers are here, and the final EV totals for November are here. A couple of things to keep in mind here: – There are only seven days of early voting in runoff elections, while […]

Precinct analysis: Age ranges

Let us one more time ask the question: Just how old were the voters in our 2015 election? Range All Pct ====================== 18-30 21,998 8.2% 31-40 32,359 12.1% 41-50 39,074 14.6% 51-60 58,610 21.9% 61+ 115,755 43.2% The short answer is “not as old as we’ve seen in previous elections“. That’s a high-water mark for […]

Precinct analysis: Where the voters came from

Yesterday we looked at the voting history of the people who participated in the 2015 election. Today we’re going to take a look at how those numbers broke down by Council district. Dist All 3 None Rest Total ==================================== A 4,686 7,238 8,173 20,097 B 4,873 8,829 8,738 22,440 C 11,471 17,129 18,588 47,188 D […]

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who voted in this election, and perhaps make some comparisons to past elections. Today we’re going […]

Our partisan Mayoral runoff

I’m shocked, shocked to find that there are partisan interests in the Mayoral runoff. Even though Houston elections officially are nonpartisan, the contest between Bill King and Sylvester Turner has evolved into a test of party might as voters prepare to elect the Bayou City’s first new mayor in six years. King has framed the […]

Precinct analysis: Did HERO hurt Juliet Stipeche?

It’s one theory. In the Houston Independent School District, trustee Juliet Stipeche on Tuesday became the first sitting HISD board member to lose since 1997. At that time, retired educator Larry Marshall defeated Clyde Lemon, a supporter of then-Superintendent Rod Paige. Stipeche, one of Superintendent Terry Grier’s most outspoken critics, fell to Diana Davila, who […]

Fort Bend vote centers report

They seemed to work OK. Not all the kinks had been worked out in Fort Bend County – the first Election Day here that voters were allowed to cast ballots at any polling place. When results were finally tallied and posted – around 10:40 p.m. – one of the effects became clear: 49,947 ballots had […]

Hillary’s promise to state parties

From the Daily Kos a few days ago, via Facebook: Just got off of Robby Mook’s conference call for Hillary Clinton volunteers, and he mentioned in passing that all of the voter data that the campaign is collecting for Clinton is being shared with state parties. Mook explicitly stated that they are doing this to […]

Mayoral runoff overview

Break’s over, back to the grind. Sylvester Turner and Bill King, the top two finishers on Election Day, present Houston with a clear-cut choice in everything from policy priorities to personal demeanor. “I talk about the need for the mayor to emphasize education, opportunities, addressing the economic inequality – not having two cities in one, […]

Precinct analysis: Mayor’s race

I now have draft canvasses. You know what that means. All data is for Harris County only. First up, the Mayor’s race: Dist Hall Turner Garcia King Costello Bell =================================================== A 1,906 4,587 3,509 6,265 1,522 1,129 B 2,494 15,947 2,159 459 259 277 C 2,575 10,951 6,804 12,121 4,894 7,451 D 4,060 17,033 2,637 […]

What happened to Adrian?

Not what he thought would happen, that’s for sure. When Adrian Garcia announced in May that he would be giving up his job as sheriff and the top Democratic elected official in Harris County to run for mayor, he was heralded as an instant front-runner to replace term-limited Mayor Annise Parker. Six months later, the […]

Initial day-after-election thoughts

– We now have two cycles’ worth of data to suggest that having more good candidates in a Council race does not necessarily lead to better outcomes. Following in the footsteps of At Large #3 in 2013, a handful of Democratic candidates in At Large #1 split the vote with sufficient closeness to keep them […]

What the passage of the term limits referendum means

It’s a little unclear from this story. The passage of Proposition 2 also means some current officeholders will be able to serve longer than the six years they originally signed up for. Current freshman council members will now be able to serve two more 4-year terms, for a total of 10 years. Those serving their […]

Election Day: Get yourself to the polls

From County Clerk Stan Stanart: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart strongly encourages citizens who plan to vote on Tuesday, Nov. 3 to be prepared before voting on Election Day. “It is very important for voters to know the answers to Where, When, Who and What before heading to the polls on Election Day,” said Stanart, […]

Final 2015 EV statewide totals

Presented for completeness. Here are the 2015 EV totals from the top 15 counties, and here are the 2013 totals. And here is a handy table comparing the two: County 13 total 15 total Inc ====================================== Harris 101,694 193,966 90.73% Dallas 22,119 42,392 91.65% Tarrant 29,928 42,308 41.37% Bexar 30,845 42,216 36.86% Travis 34,672 27,224 […]