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Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

The state of the polls

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race is 44.0 for Trump and 38.3 for Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polling averages, which includes some […]

Republicans remain concerned about their turnout in Texas

Exhibit A: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is stepping up his travel for state Republicans amid concerns about GOP turnout in November. Cruz is set to attend a trio of events next week in North Texas aimed at getting out the vote, particularly among conservatives who have long made up his base. Cruz will appear […]

WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43

The margin keeps narrowing. After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night. The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by […]

Statewide registrations top 15 million

Not too shabby. Texas has a record-breaking 15 million people registered to vote ahead of the November election, the Secretary of State’s office announced Thursday. Texas has 15,015,700 voters registered according to a preliminary estimate — over 777,000 more than were registered in time for the March primaries. The deadline to register to vote was […]

Record registration numbers for Harris County

Nice. As registration closed, Harris County’s voter roster had grown by more than 6 percent since 2014, the steepest increase in 16 years. More than 323,890 new names have been added, bringing the county voter roll to more than 2.2 million. Harris County is not alone. The Texas Secretary of State’s office two weeks ago […]

The Trump dilemma

I’d almost feel pity for them, if they hadn’t brought this on themselves. Leading GOP elected officials — including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn — condemned the words but continued to back their candidate, and pro-Trump grassroots forces appeared set in their support for the […]

Chron overview of judicial races

In case anyone is paying attention to them. As Harris County goes, so go most of its judicial races. That truism appears to be good news for Democrats seeking to scoop up more district court benches in November, when two dozen criminal, civil and family court positions are up for grabs. Three of the benches […]

Registration versus turnout

Ross Ramsey throws a bit of cold water on the surge in voter registrations. Turnout isn’t nearly as volatile as registration. Over the past 10 presidential elections in Texas, the percentage of Texas adults registered to vote has gone as low as 65.3 percent in 1992 to as high as 85.4 percent in 2000. The […]

Lots of absentee ballots in Harris County this year

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced today that over 90,000 ballots have been mailed to voters who requested to vote by mail in the November 8, 2016 General and Special Elections. The number of ballots mailed is the highest ever processed in Harris County for any election. “The Super Bowl of Elections […]

Chron overview of SBOE races

There are a few races of interest, though the usual bet is that nothing unusual will happen. Dakota Carter, a Democrat and underdog in District 6, said he got “fired up” to run for the board because he is tired of members manipulating the state’s curriculum to put it “more in line with politics rather […]

Our first guess at Harris County turnout

It’s big. Early voting in Texas for the 2016 election begins in a month. It will run through November 4. The Harris County Clerk’s office is encouraging voters to take advantage of the window, in order to avoid long lines at the polls. Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart estimates 2.2 million people will be registered […]

More DNC presence in Texas

Glad to see it, even if I’m not really sure what it means. The Democratic National Committee is expanding its presence in Texas as polls continue to show a closer-than-usual presidential race in the solidly red state. Texas is set to become the fourth state participating in the DNC’s Victory Leaders Council program, which establishes […]

More on Republican turnout concerns

It’s a thing that is happening, though it’s hard to say to what extent. On Monday, one of the most prominent Republicans in Texas has a warning for supporters that Texas could go blue this election. Governor Greg Abbott is sounding the alarm, citing recent poll numbers. Democrats couldn’t be happier, especially because the email […]

Voter registration way up statewide

That’s a lot. Nearly 15 million people are now registered to vote in Texas, a state record. Texas currently has more than 14.8 million voters registered — over 1 million more than were registered in the 2012 presidential election, according to the Texas secretary of state’s office. Keith Ingram, director of elections for the secretary […]

Two more Clinton campaign offices opened in Texas

In Austin: The Democratic National Committee opened its Austin headquarters on Sunday. The move comes amid a surprisingly narrowing gap (given the longtime deep-red status of the state) between Clinton and her GOP rival, Donald Trump, for the presidency. The office is located at 61 N. Interstate 35 at Holly Street, serving as the base […]

So what’s going on with these polls of Texas?

Republicans are feeling a little touchy about them. “I think the emerging picture is one that looks a little bit tighter in the presidential election than we’ve seen in recent elections in the state,” said Joshua Blank, whose Texas Lyceum poll, released Thursday, found GOP nominee Donald Trump leading Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by only […]

The local and state party perspective

This is the flip side of yesterday’s story about the national Democratic campaign opening an office in Houston. As long-beleaguered Texas Democrats look toward November, they see opportunity in the fallout from Trump’s rhetoric targeting Latinos and women. Surveys have shown Trump leading Clinton by only single digits in Texas. “There ain’t enough white males […]

More on the ground game here

A few days ago I wrote about the opening of a national Democratic campaign office here in Harris County. I had the opportunity to pose a few questions to the campaign over the weekend about this office and their larger plans. Here’s what we discussed: – The office is part of the coordinated campaign between […]

The ground game in Texas

The Chron looks at the Trump campaign in Texas, such as it is. Just over two months before the November general election, Bryant typifies the Trump campaign in Texas, a mostly invisible but active network of supporters that Republican Party officials hope will yield a double-digit victory in the Lone Star State, even as polls […]

Precinct analysis: HISD Trustee district VII in a Presidential year

As you know, we have a special election for HISD Trustee in district VII on the ballot this November. There’s one Democratic candidate in that race and three Republicans. These races are normally held in odd-numbered years, in which turnout is considerably lower than in Presidential years. Overall turnout in Harris County in 2013 was […]

What can we do to increase the odds of a downballot Democratic victory?

Yesterday, I raised the possibility of downballot Democrats winning statewide races if 1) polling in the Trump/Clinton matchup remained at or below the six point spread in the recent PPP poll and 2) Democrats did a better job voting all the way down the ballot than Republicans, as has been the case in recent Presidential […]

It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is Texas next? Across the country in recent days, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has suffered […]

PPP: Trump 44, Clinton 38

We knew this poll was coming, and it confirms what we have been seeing elsewhere. PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, […]

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans — not just Georgia, but states like Texas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi. Even as […]

Beatty’s memo

From the Trib: Texas Democrats are being told they have their “greatest opportunities in a generation” this November with Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee and majorities of voters viewing corruption as a major problem in state government. Austin-based Democratic pollster Leland Beatty argues, in a memo obtained by The Texas Tribune, that several […]

Once more on HD146

Christopher Hooks from the Observer was at Saturday’s festivities, and he files his report. And on Saturday, 24 precinct chairs met in a small room full of folding chairs at the Sunnyside Multi-Service Center in south Houston to pick Miles’ replacement. They adjudicated a fierce contest between [Shawn] Thierry and Erica Lee Carter, member of […]

Harvin Moore to resign as HISD Trustee

Best wishes. Harvin Moore, one of the Houston school board’s longest-serving members, said Thursday that he is resigning his seat. Moore, who has served on the board since late 2003, has asked the board to call an election for November, a year before his term is set to expire. Moore said he expects voter turnout […]

HD120 special election runoff decided

For completists only. Independent Laura Thompson has won the special election runoff to temporarily fill the Texas House seat of former state Rep. Ruth Jones McClendon, D-San Antonio. Thompson, a freelance writer, will be the first independent to serve in the Legislature in more than half a century, though her time will be limited: She […]

Voter ID law changes agreed to

We have a deal. Texas struck a deal Wednesday that will soften its voter ID law for the November general election — a development that lawyers suing the state say will make it easier for minorities to cast their ballots. The state reached the agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice and minority rights groups […]

Will Texas Republicans dislike Clinton as much as they dislike Obama?

Of course they will. I mean, come on. Texas Democrats will miss Obama. But so too will Texas Republicans. Those three syllables — O-Bah-Mah — were all it took for Republicans to signal what they stood against. “There was an element of vitriol against Barack Obama that just defies logic,” said Rodney Ellis, a Democrat […]

Pokemon Go get votes

This is a smart idea. Lazaros Sanchez, 25, often ventures to the Capitol on his lunch break. “There’s Pokémon all over the place,” he observed late Thursday morning after catching a Pokémon called Eevee. Now politicians are jumping on the trend. State Rep. Rodney Anderson, a Grand Prairie Republican up for re-election this fall, [organized] […]

What next for Julian Castro?

I can think of something for him to do. Housing Secretary Julián Castro was long touted as a possible running mate for Hillary Clinton, but when the call came Friday informing him that the presumptive Democratic nominee had picked someone else, he wasn’t entirely surprised. “It’s disappointing, of course,” Castro said in a telephone interview […]

What it will take to win the District Court of Appeals benches

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that one place on the local ballot where Democrats could potentially gain some real ground is with the district Courts of Appeals. There are no competitive Congressional or State Senate races, the one competitive State House race in HD144 would be Democratic-favored in any Presidential year, and the countywide […]

Gallego claims poll lead over Hurd in CD23

Just another item to add to the list of reasons why Donald Trump is and has been bad news for Texas Republicans. Voters in the district, which is the largest Congressional district in the country which is not its own state, stretching from northwest Bexar County to El Paso, have an ‘overwhelmingly negative’ view of […]