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Posts Tagged ‘turnout’

Precinct analysis: Age ranges

Let us one more time ask the question: Just how old were the voters in our 2015 election? Range All Pct ====================== 18-30 21,998 8.2% 31-40 32,359 12.1% 41-50 39,074 14.6% 51-60 58,610 21.9% 61+ 115,755 43.2% The short answer is “not as old as we’ve seen in previous elections“. That’s a high-water mark for […]

Precinct analysis: Where the voters came from

Yesterday we looked at the voting history of the people who participated in the 2015 election. Today we’re going to take a look at how those numbers broke down by Council district. Dist All 3 None Rest Total ==================================== A 4,686 7,238 8,173 20,097 B 4,873 8,829 8,738 22,440 C 11,471 17,129 18,588 47,188 D […]

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who voted in this election, and perhaps make some comparisons to past elections. Today we’re going […]

Our partisan Mayoral runoff

I’m shocked, shocked to find that there are partisan interests in the Mayoral runoff. Even though Houston elections officially are nonpartisan, the contest between Bill King and Sylvester Turner has evolved into a test of party might as voters prepare to elect the Bayou City’s first new mayor in six years. King has framed the […]

Precinct analysis: Did HERO hurt Juliet Stipeche?

It’s one theory. In the Houston Independent School District, trustee Juliet Stipeche on Tuesday became the first sitting HISD board member to lose since 1997. At that time, retired educator Larry Marshall defeated Clyde Lemon, a supporter of then-Superintendent Rod Paige. Stipeche, one of Superintendent Terry Grier’s most outspoken critics, fell to Diana Davila, who […]

Fort Bend vote centers report

They seemed to work OK. Not all the kinks had been worked out in Fort Bend County – the first Election Day here that voters were allowed to cast ballots at any polling place. When results were finally tallied and posted – around 10:40 p.m. – one of the effects became clear: 49,947 ballots had […]

Hillary’s promise to state parties

From the Daily Kos a few days ago, via Facebook: Just got off of Robby Mook’s conference call for Hillary Clinton volunteers, and he mentioned in passing that all of the voter data that the campaign is collecting for Clinton is being shared with state parties. Mook explicitly stated that they are doing this to […]

Mayoral runoff overview

Break’s over, back to the grind. Sylvester Turner and Bill King, the top two finishers on Election Day, present Houston with a clear-cut choice in everything from policy priorities to personal demeanor. “I talk about the need for the mayor to emphasize education, opportunities, addressing the economic inequality – not having two cities in one, […]

Precinct analysis: Mayor’s race

I now have draft canvasses. You know what that means. All data is for Harris County only. First up, the Mayor’s race: Dist Hall Turner Garcia King Costello Bell =================================================== A 1,906 4,587 3,509 6,265 1,522 1,129 B 2,494 15,947 2,159 459 259 277 C 2,575 10,951 6,804 12,121 4,894 7,451 D 4,060 17,033 2,637 […]

What happened to Adrian?

Not what he thought would happen, that’s for sure. When Adrian Garcia announced in May that he would be giving up his job as sheriff and the top Democratic elected official in Harris County to run for mayor, he was heralded as an instant front-runner to replace term-limited Mayor Annise Parker. Six months later, the […]

Initial day-after-election thoughts

– We now have two cycles’ worth of data to suggest that having more good candidates in a Council race does not necessarily lead to better outcomes. Following in the footsteps of At Large #3 in 2013, a handful of Democratic candidates in At Large #1 split the vote with sufficient closeness to keep them […]

What the passage of the term limits referendum means

It’s a little unclear from this story. The passage of Proposition 2 also means some current officeholders will be able to serve longer than the six years they originally signed up for. Current freshman council members will now be able to serve two more 4-year terms, for a total of 10 years. Those serving their […]

Election Day: Get yourself to the polls

From County Clerk Stan Stanart: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart strongly encourages citizens who plan to vote on Tuesday, Nov. 3 to be prepared before voting on Election Day. “It is very important for voters to know the answers to Where, When, Who and What before heading to the polls on Election Day,” said Stanart, […]

Final 2015 EV statewide totals

Presented for completeness. Here are the 2015 EV totals from the top 15 counties, and here are the 2013 totals. And here is a handy table comparing the two: County 13 total 15 total Inc ====================================== Harris 101,694 193,966 90.73% Dallas 22,119 42,392 91.65% Tarrant 29,928 42,308 41.37% Bexar 30,845 42,216 36.86% Travis 34,672 27,224 […]

One more analysis of early vote turnout

From Greg: Sometimes the motivation to drive out one segment of voters to the polls has a disparate impact in an electorate. And sometimes the motivation in one constituency has an echo effect that motivates competing constituencies. A classic example of the latter was seen in the North Carolina Senate campaigns involving Jesse Helms (in […]

Day 12 EV 2015 totals: Final turnout projections

The last day was another big one: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ======================================= 2015 164,104 29,859 193,963 43,280 2013 87,944 21,426 109,370 30,572 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. Before I go on, let me note that the numbers noted […]

The pessimism of the poli-sci profs

A trio of academic pundits thinks things aren’t going well for the pro-HERO forces. Turnout is up sharply from previous Houston municipal elections, with the largest increases occurring in predominantly Republican and African-American precincts, where a majority of voters are likely to oppose HERO, according to Bob Stein, a political scientist at Rice University. “I’ve […]

Day 11 EV 2015 totals: So what do we think turnout will be, anyway?

One more day of early voting to go: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ======================================= 2015 128,611 27,952 156,563 43,280 2013 68,803 20,491 89,294 30,572 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. As noted yesterday, we have exceeded the 2013 early voting […]

Day 10 EV 2015 totals: City versus county

The Day 9 totals came in too late for me to post them yesterday, but the Day 10 reports came in early, so let’s skip ahead to those: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ======================================= 2015 107,086 26,608 133,594 43,280 2013 61,391 19,350 80,741 30,572 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are […]

Day 8 EV 2015 totals: Breaking it down to districts

Day One of Week Two: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 73,903 23,560 97,553 43,279 2013 45,571 16,076 61,647 30,548 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. The second Monday in person totals for this year (12,895) are greater than […]

Day 7 EV 2015 totals

One week in: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 61,008 21,141 82,149 42,938 2013 37,928 14,342 52,270 30,544 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. Sunday is the low volume day for early voting, as EV hours are only 1 […]

Day 6 EV 2015 totals: Rain, rain, go away

Here are your rain-soaked Day Six totals: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 57,657 21,141 78,798 42,938 2013 35,376 14,342 49,728 30,544 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. No mail ballots sent or received today or tomorrow, and I […]

Day 5 EV 2015 totals: Early voting is up (almost) everywhere

Here are your Day Five totals: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 48,027 21,141 69,168 42,938 2013 28,303 14,342 42,645 30,544 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. With one work week in the bag, it’s clear that early voting […]

Day 4 EV 2015 totals

Gonna be lazy for one more day. Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 36,321 19,789 56,110 42,520 2013 21,193 13,322 34,515 30,096 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. I should have something to say about the five day totals […]

Day 3 EV 2015 totals

No fanfare today Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 27,596 18,196 45,752 41,994 2013 15,595 12,033 27,628 29,538 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals are here. I don’t have any fancy commentary today, so just enjoy the numbers for what they […]

Day 2 EV 2015 totals: Why I’m using 2013 as my basis for comparison and not 2009

But first, here’s yesterday’s Chron story about Day One turnout: Turnout as of the first day of early voting in Harris County more than tripled from 2009, when Houston last elected a new mayor, though it is too soon to project whether overall participation will be up. More than 23,000 county residents cast a ballot, […]

Time to get out the vote

A look at the strategies for turning out the vote for various Mayoral campaigns. In the days before Monday’s start to early voting, Houston’s top mayoral campaigns moved to mobilize their volunteer forces, aiming to ensure their supporters make it the polls. With 13 candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot and no incumbent, the vote […]

Day One EV 2015 totals

Here they are, fresh from the inbox: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 8,889 14,240 23,129 40,626 2013 5,028 8,560 13,588 28,620 The 2015 Day One file is here, and the final 2013 file is here. A few observations: 1. Clearly, Day One totals are up from 2013. I would caution anyone from reading […]

Early voting starts tomorrow

From the Harris County Clerk: Early Voting for the upcoming November 3, 2015 Election starts Monday, Oct. 19 and runs through Friday, Oct. 30. There are 41 Harris County Early Voting locations, some of which have changed. The Houston Community College (HCC) Northeast Campus, the Alief Administration Building, the Riley Chambers Community Center in Crosby […]

Stoking the Clinton-Castro speculation

It’s all talk for now, but it’s nice talk to hear. Accepting Julián Castro’s endorsement Thursday, Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton addressed speculation he could serve as her running mate, saying she plans to “really look hard at him for anything.” “That’s how good he is,” Clinton added in a Q&A with Javier Palomarez, the […]

Race and runoffs and Turner

Everyone agrees that Sylvester Turner will be one of the candidates to make it to the runoff for Mayor this year. But what happens then? Yet, to succeed term-limited Mayor Annise Parker, Turner, an African-American, will need to broaden his coalition beyond black voters – a challenge in a city where voting patterns often fall […]

KHOU poll: Turner 19, King and Garcia 9

Our third poll result in the past week. Sylvester Turner remains the front-runner, but Adrian Garcia has lost his once firm grip on second place and Bill King rises into the top tier of contenders in the race for Houston mayor. That’s the headline from the latest poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and Houston […]

Mimi Swartz’s Mayoral campaign rant

Here it is. What if they held a mayoral race and nobody came? That’s the question plaguing many people currently involved in Houston politics—even if no one else in town is asking it. This phenomenon isn’t entirely new: in 2009,* a measly 19 percent of Houston voters turned out for the general election to make […]

HAR poll

And some more good news here. With less than four weeks to go before the election, the Houston mayoral race remains “fluid,” according to a new poll commissioned by the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR). The poll finds Adrian Garcia and Sylvester Turner tied for the lead, with a second tier of closely-clustered candidates, including […]