Category Archives: The making of the President

Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

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So what happened in the Latino counties?

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s go to the data: County Trump Clinton Trump Biden ============================================= Bexar 240,333 319,550 303,871 440,823 Cameron 29,472 59,402 48,834 63,732 Dimmit 974 2,173 1,384 2,264 El Paso 55,512 147,843 81,235 168,801 Frio 1,856 2,444 2,812 2,421 Hidalgo 48,642 118,809 … Continue reading →

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Omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was up really late last night, and there’s still a lot of votes to be counted. The SOS website was mostly trash, but a lot of county election sites took their sweet, sweet time even reporting any Election Day … Continue reading →

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Univision: Trump 49, Biden 46

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Always time for one more poll, apparently. The race for the White House in Texas is so close in the Nov 3 presidential election that it’s beginning to look uncharacteristically like a swing state, according to a new Univision News … Continue reading →

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DFP: Biden 49, Trump 48

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, from Twitter: . Biden leads 54 to 45 among those that have already voted. For more information on early vote statistics (and for live results on election night) visit https://2020.dataforprogress.org. — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 10:50 AM – … Continue reading →

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NYT/Siena: Trump 47, Biden 43

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Possibly the last poll of interest for the cycle. President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs but … Continue reading →

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UH-Hobby: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a poll result that stands in contrast to the others we have seen lately. President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by more than five points among likely voters in Texas, according to a poll released … Continue reading →

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Here comes Kamala

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a little fuel to the “Texas is in play” fire. Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s running mate and the California U.S. senator, will be visiting Texas on Friday, according to an email Biden’s campaign sent to Democratic lawmakers in Texas … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 45

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The late run of good polls in Texas for Joe Biden continues. Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 48, Trump 47

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The overview is here and there are some words that I’ll include shortly, but for the headline we’ll need this picture: I know it says “Tied” despite the “Biden 48, Trump 47” listing. My guess is that the exact numbers … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 47, Trump 47

Posted on October 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Very interesting. In the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden is in a tied race with President Donald Trump in the reliably red state of Texas, and he holds a single digit lead … Continue reading →

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DFP: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . Police cars revolving lightNew Poll – TX Police cars revolving light Biden 47 – Trump 46 Cornyn 44 – Hegar 41 https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-5/toplines/tx.pdf — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 8:21 PM – 18 October 2020 What’s interesting about this … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: For Biden

Posted on October 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Duh. Character, without question, is the starkest divide between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. For all his faults — and there are a few — the latter possesses a rare ability in these polarized times to … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll get into a broader discussion in a minute, but for now, there’s this: President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden with the support of 50% of the state’s likely voters to Biden’s 45% in the 2020 race … Continue reading →

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There’s so much more money in Texas races

Posted on October 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Item one: It’s the question that many, many people have raised — often as a joke — for years. But the combination of changing demographics, chaos among the state Republican ranks, and the ongoing struggles of President Donald Trump’s campaign … Continue reading →

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PPP/TDP: Trump 48, Biden 48

Posted on September 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

More polls. A new poll of likely voters found that President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are tied in Texas. The poll, commissioned by the Texas Democratic Party through Public Policy Polling, is the latest reflecting a dead … Continue reading →

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NYT/Siena: Trump 46, Biden 43

Posted on September 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The second of two polls from yesterday, both of which are interesting in their own way. The NYT story about the poll, which included results from Iowa (Biden leading by3) and Georgia (tied), is behind their firewall, so I’ll give … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on September 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here we have a new Quinnipiac poll, one of two that came out yesterday, and it’s a bit of a puzzle. In Texas and Ohio, two states where President Trump won easily in 2016, the president holds a slight lead … Continue reading →

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Two more polls of Texas

Posted on September 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Trump is up two in this one. Florida and Texas remain tight battlegrounds in the presidential election, according to CBS News Battleground Tracker polls released Sunday. The current margin in both states is 2 percentage points, with Democratic nominee Joe … Continue reading →

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Adding to the team in Texas

Posted on September 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Shot: Joe Biden is a lot closer to winning Texas at this point than Donald Trump is to winning Minnesota, if the polls are anywhere close to right. — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) 2:15 PM – 14 September 2020 Chaser. Joe … Continue reading →

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PPP/Giffords: Trump 48, Biden 47

Posted on September 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Evan Smith: New @ppppolls poll in Texas: @realDonaldTrump 48 @joebiden 47 @JohnCornyn 44 @mjhegar 40 https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults1.pdf #txlege #txsen #tx2020 — EvanSmith (@evanasmith) 3:18 PM – 08 September 2020 I could not find a news story, press release, or even … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Trump 48, Biden 46

Posted on September 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s our first post-convention poll from an outfit that has polled the state at least twice so far this year. Texas remains a toss-up in the presidential race. But Democrat Joe Biden’s modest – and somewhat startling – lead over … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Trump 48, Biden 47

Posted on September 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We’re already starting to get a ton of new polls now that the conventions are over, and with that I expect some more Texas-specific polls. In the meantime, there’s this. Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest … Continue reading →

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A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 47

Posted on August 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden emerged from his national convention with a 1 percentage point lead in Texas over Republican President Donald Trump, a poll scheduled for wide release on Tuesday shows. The results from the … Continue reading →

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The Kamala effect

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I assume you are all aware that California Sen. Kamala Harris is now the Democratic nominee for Vice President. I didn’t post about that on Wednesday because it was hardly news by the time I published, but there are things … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Looks like maybe we’ll get a regular dose of these. Democrats enter the peak of the campaign season with advantages that make their path to regaining control of the Senate easier for strategists and handicappers to envision alongside a Joe … Continue reading →

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Biden’s team in Texas

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Get to it, y’all. Joe Biden’s campaign is naming its first hires for the general election in Texas, where polls continue to show a close contest between the presumptive Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump. Biden’s state director will be … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 45

Posted on July 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The hits keep coming. Another day, another poll showing that Texas is up for grabs despite President Donald Trump’s bluster. Former vice president Joe Biden leads 47-45, with only one in 20 voters still undecided, in a Morning Consult poll … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

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More pressure on Biden to really compete in Texas

Posted on July 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Fine by me. With President Donald Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joe Biden is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and … Continue reading →

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CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Biden 45

Posted on July 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Maybe a tad bit of a letdown after yesterday’s result, but still quite solid. The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 43

Posted on July 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Holy mackeral. Former Vice President Joe Biden has built a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, as unease over Trump’s handling of coronavirus mounts, a new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll has found. If the general … Continue reading →

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A more extensive look at the state polls

Posted on July 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, I’ve been computing a poll average for the Presidential race in Texas based on post-primary numbers, meaning that I start with the April 25 UT/Trib result and go from there. As of the June 25 Fox poll, … Continue reading →

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