Category Archives: The making of the President

The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 46

Posted on July 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And here’s poll number two, which is technically about the Texas Senate race but I’m counting it as a Presidential poll for consistency. Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds that John Cornyn has basically no profile in Texas. Only … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 48, Biden 44

Posted on July 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We had two Presidential polls drop on Thursday. Here’s the first, I’ll do the second for tomorrow. President Donald Trump would beat former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas by 4 percentage points if the election were held today, according … Continue reading →

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What should Joe Biden do in Texas?

Posted on June 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

“Win” would be my preferred answer, but it’s more complicated than that. No matter how frequently it happens, it’s always a bit startling. Ever since February 2019, polls have been coming out indicating that former Vice President Joe Biden is … Continue reading →

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Fox: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on June 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Man, if we keep getting polls that show Joe Biden leading in Texas, we just might have to rethink where this state is politically. Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, … Continue reading →

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PPP/PT: Trump 48, Biden 46

Posted on June 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. Today, Progress Texas released statewide Texas voter poll results, showing Democrats are within striking distance in both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races in Texas. What does this mean? Texas voters are fed up with Texas … Continue reading →

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The Economist’s 2020 Presidential election model

Posted on June 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here it is, the first official model of the year. Four months ago, Donald Trump’s odds of winning a second term had never looked better. After an easy acquittal in his impeachment trial, his approval rating had reached its highest … Continue reading →

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PPP: Trump 48, Biden 48

Posted on June 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

You want polls, we got polls. In a Texas survey done for the Texas Democratic Party, we found Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in the state at 48. Only 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Trump 44, Biden 43

Posted on June 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Nice. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a very tight race in Texas, with Trump receiving 44 percent of the vote and Biden receiving 43 percent in a general election matchup, according to a … Continue reading →

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Biden campaign says it will compete in Texas

Posted on May 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

That is what we want to hear. Former vice president Joe Biden is planning to compete against President Trump in traditionally Republican states such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia as his campaign bulks up in size and turns to a … Continue reading →

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Emerson: Trump 47, Biden 41

Posted on May 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Next up. The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media polls of Texas, California, and Ohio show President Donald Trump with a slight advantage in Ohio and Texas in the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump also … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Trump 43, Biden 43

Posted on May 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

New day, new poll. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a dead heat in the race for Texas, signaling that the Lone Star State is evolving into a presidential battleground. A new Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler … Continue reading →

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Democracy Toolbox (PPP): Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on April 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A new Texas poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden up by one percentage point over President Donald Trump and also provides insights into Texans’ concerns about voting during the COVID-19 outbreak. The poll was commissioned by … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 49, Biden 44

Posted on April 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Our first post-primary poll. Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden by five points in Texas if the presidential race were held now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. In a Trump-Biden contest, Democratic and Republican voters overwhelmingly … Continue reading →

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Former Bloomberg staffers sue him

Posted on March 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Okay. Four former workers for Michael Bloomberg’s presidential campaign in Texas are suing him for fraud, alleging that he went back on a promise to pay them through the November election. In lawsuits filed Monday in Tarrant County, the former … Continue reading →

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Bloomberg takes his money and goes home

Posted on March 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Thanks for nothing, dude. Back in the halcyon days of late January—before the Iowa caucuses melted down, before an ascendant Bernie Sanders was supplanted by a triumphant Joe Biden, back when Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar were viable candidates in … Continue reading →

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2020 primary results: President

Posted on March 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Before we get to the numbers, one last word about polls. As we know, polls released over the weekend were quite favorable to Bernie Sanders. However, there was more polling done since then, and both nationally and in Texas there … Continue reading →

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Four more polls say Bernie is leading in Texas

Posted on March 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Latino Decisions: A new poll of Texas voters published Friday by Univision shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with a 6-point lead over his rivals in the crucial Super Tuesday state, particularly among Latino voters. The poll, conducted by polling … Continue reading →

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CNN/SSRS: The first big Bernie lead

Posted on February 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We come full circle. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holds substantial leads in the two largest states to vote in next week’s Super Tuesday lineup of primaries, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in California and Texas. In Texas, … Continue reading →

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Progress Texas/PPP poll: The Bloomberg effect

Posted on February 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

More primary polling data for you. Super Tuesday marks the first time that Michael Bloomberg will appear on the Democratic Primary ballot. To measure his impact on the race, we polled likely Texas Democratic Primary voters to see preferences with … Continue reading →

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UH poll: Biden, Bernie tied

Posted on February 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

One more primary poll. Texans are split between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders as their choice in the Democratic presidential primary, according to a University of Houston poll released Monday. The poll, from the university’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Two out of three polls say Bernie is moving up

Posted on February 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is Bernie Sanders’ best poll result in Texas so far. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has doubled his support among Democratic voters in Texas and now leads the race for that party’s presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest … Continue reading →

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We should get full delegate results on Primary Day

Posted on February 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Good. Texas counties have started seeing updates to the state’s election reporting system that will allow them to break out the vote totals needed to determine how many delegates are won by presidential contenders on Super Tuesday. The refinements to … Continue reading →

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Will we get full Presidential primary results from Texas on primary night?

Posted on February 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Maybe. As their counterparts in Iowa reel from a disastrously slow election returns process, Texas Democrats raised the prospect Wednesday that a change in the way Texas reports election results could delay the final tally of delegates won by presidential … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler: Biden doing better than Bernie

Posted on February 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Poll #2 from this week stands in contrast to Poll #1. Former vice president Joe Biden has stretched his lead in Texas in the Democratic presidential fight, buoyed by gains among Hispanics, a new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at … Continue reading →

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Lyceum poll: Trump with a mostly modest lead

Posted on January 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Among the large pack of Democratic presidential primary contenders still vying for the nomination to be the party’s nominee for U.S. president, former Vice President Joe Biden is currently leading in the Lone Star State, with Vermont … Continue reading →

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A view of Texas and polling

Posted on January 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The premise of this is sound, but don’t read too much into it. In Texas, the nation’s biggest, most important red state, Trump’s disapproval rating has consistently lagged behind many of the 30 states he carried in 2016. This potentially … Continue reading →

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Julian Castro ends his Presidential bid

Posted on January 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Sorry to see him go. Julián Castro has ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination for president, capping a nearly yearlong bid during which he distinguished himself as a progressive crusader but never found the polling or fundraising support to … Continue reading →

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CNN/SSRS: Trump 48, Biden 47

Posted on December 14, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Time for a non-Mayoral poll. The story is about results, primary and general, in both California and Texas, so forgive the abrupt opening sentence. In Texas, however, it’s a different picture, with Biden holding wide leads across nearly every major … Continue reading →

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Beacon Research: Trump 45, Biden 44

Posted on December 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

That’s not the headline of this story, but it’s what I’m leading with. With just a week remaining before the deadline to run for office in Texas next year, some Democrats are still hoping to see Beto O’Rourke jump into … Continue reading →

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The latest UT-Tyler poll

Posted on November 20, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

A slightly more Republican sample leads to slightly better numbers for Trump in Texas, though they’re still not great. Texas voters are split over whether President Donald Trump should be impeached, though only 43% of voters in the Lone Star … Continue reading →

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News flash: Republicans still like Trump

Posted on November 15, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I’m as shocked as you are. As in any sports bar in Texas when the Dallas Cowboys are playing on Monday night, most of the TVs at a British pub in northwest San Antonio were tuned to the … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 46, others 39

Posted on November 5, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

It’s Election Day, so I’m going to be brief about this. None of the top Democrats seeking the presidential nomination would beat President Donald Trump in Texas in an election held today — and neither would either of the Texas … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Impeachment inquiry more popular than not

Posted on November 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Seems like a big deal. Not quite half of Texas registered voters agree that “Congress is justified in conducting impeachment investigations into actions Donald Trump has taken while president,” according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Almost as … Continue reading →

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