Category Archives: Election 2016

The rural/suburban tradeoff

Posted on August 10, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Martin Longman returns to a point he has been making about the way the vote shifted in the 2016 election. Let’s try to be clear about what we mean. Hillary Clinton won a lot of votes in the suburbs from … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: SBOE districts

Posted on June 12, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 members on the State Board of Education, five Democrats and ten Republicans. Of those ten Republican-held seats, four of them were in districts that were interesting in 2016: Dist Incumbent Clinton Trump Obama Romney ================================================= SBOE5 Mercer … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on May 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Texas Legislative Council now has full data from the 2016 elections on its site, so this seemed like as good a time as any to take a look at the data from Congressional districts. I’m much more limited in … Continue reading →

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Nonprofit VOTE report on voter turnout

Posted on May 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

For your perusal. NATIONAL TURNOUT Voter turnout exceeded 2012 at a level consistent with the last three presidential elections. 60.2% of the nation’s 231 million eligible voters cast ballots, according to ballots counted and certified by state election boards, compared … Continue reading →

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Voter ID education was a massive failure

Posted on April 12, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

This is outrageous. The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs recently completed a report, “The Texas Voter ID Law and the 2016 Election,” based on surveys of registered voters who sat out the 2016 elections in the state’s … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The targets for 2018

Posted on March 20, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape. Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the … Continue reading →

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Two unsatisfying articles about the 2016 Democratic sweep in Harris County

Posted on March 10, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Democratic sweep in Harris County has drawn some national attention, as writers from the left and right try to analyze what happened here last year and why Hillary Clinton carried the county by such a large margin. Unfortunately, as … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas county elections

Posted on March 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is … Continue reading →

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Our first look at Senate district data

Posted on February 28, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib looks at the data we now have. In the state Senate, one Republican — Don Huffines of Dallas — is now representing a district that Clinton easily won, while two more — Konni Burton of Colleyville and Joan … Continue reading →

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On those “improper” votes

Posted on February 22, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s be clear about this. Texas election officials have acknowledged that hundreds of people were allowed to bypass the state’s toughest-in-the-nation voter ID law and improperly cast ballots in the November presidential election by signing a sworn statement instead of … Continue reading →

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Latino turnout was up in 2016

Posted on February 21, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

That’s what the numbers say. Nearly 30 percent more Texas Latinos went to the polls in 2016 than in 2012, reducing the participation gap with other Texas voters and signaling to some observers that elections will become increasingly competitive in … Continue reading →

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As goes Tarrant

Posted on February 19, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib ponders the one big urban county that is not like the others. Among the state’s five biggest counties, Tarrant is the only one that hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate in the past decade. The 2016 presidential election … Continue reading →

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HCDP Chair Q&A: Lillie Schechter

Posted on February 16, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

(Note: I have sent out a brief Q&A to all of the announced HCDP Chair candidates for whom I could find contact information. I will run the responses I get in the order I receive them. While only precinct chairs … Continue reading →

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The people who would have been denied the opportunity to vote in 2016

Posted on February 14, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

There were a lot of them. At least 16,400 Texans who voted in the November election wouldn’t have been able to cast ballots if the state’s voter identification law had been in full effect, state voting records show. […] Through … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas County statewides

Posted on February 7, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Last time we looked at the Presidential numbers in Dallas County legislative districts (plus CD32). Today we follow up with a look at the statewide races. I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so please bear with … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas County Presidential numbers

Posted on January 31, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

News flash: Hillary Clinton won every Dallas County State Rep district. See for yourself: Dist Trump Clinton Johnson Stein ======================================== CD32 117,758 127,824 5,751 1,056 HD100 8,405 33,647 647 217 HD102 24,768 30,291 1,312 287 HD103 8,710 28,689 683 205 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Texas Congressional districts

Posted on January 13, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

From Daily Kos: Texas’s GOP-drawn congressional map was designed to create 24 safely red seats and 11 safely Democratic districts, with only the 23rd District in the western part of the state being truly competitive. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried … Continue reading →

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Sheriff Gonzalez’s staff

Posted on January 13, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Sheriff Ed Gonzalez combines diversity with experience in his braintrust. New Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez has tapped a diverse wave of law enforcement veterans to fill his top command staff, sharply increasing the number of minority leaders and naming … Continue reading →

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The Trib looks at Fort Bend’s Democratic trend

Posted on January 11, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

It’s worth noting. Despite long being considered a Republican county, Fort Bend went blue on Nov. 8 when Hillary Clinton won the county with an almost seven-point margin of victory. It wasn’t just an electoral flip — it was a … Continue reading →

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Kim Ogg’s swearing in

Posted on January 4, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

New DA Kim Ogg took her oath of office at an earlier time than the other Democratic elected officials, then had a more celebratory followup event afterward. Ogg, who defeated incumbent Republican Devon Anderson in November, was first sworn into … Continue reading →

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Here come the Dems

Posted on January 3, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

All the newly-elected county officials have now been sworn in. The new Harris County officials sworn in New Year’s Day had something in common: They were all Democrats. The swearing-in ceremony at 2 p.m. Sunday followed the Democratic Party’s sweep … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

Posted on December 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I had some time to spare, so I spent it with the canvass reports from Brazoria County. You know, like you do. Here’s what I was able to learn. Trump Clinton R Avg D Avg Weber Cole ======================================================= Votes 36,572 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Don’t be mesmerized by the Clinton/Trump numbers

Posted on December 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the DMN: Donald Trump may have carried Texas and clinched the White House in November, but support for the Republican presidential nominee waned in parts of the Dallas area — news that, in a typical election year, could spell … Continue reading →

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The new Sheriff in town

Posted on December 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Sheriff-elect Ed Gonzalez has his work cut out for him. When newly elected Sheriff Ed Gonzalez takes office on Jan. 1, he will face a tangle of budget, staffing and jail inmate safety issues inherited from more than a decade … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend State Rep districts

Posted on December 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Following on from yesterday’s post, here’s a look at the vote in Fort Bend from the perspective of the State Rep districts. Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem % =============================================== President 35,005 31,558 52.59% 47.41% CJ, 1st CofA 40,047 28,336 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend Commissioners Court precincts

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I have not done Fort Bend precinct analyses in the past because I don’t get easily-worked-with CSV-format canvass reports from them after elections. However, it turns out that their election returns page for this year has a “Reports” button on … Continue reading →

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Luman will request recount

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

John Luman posted the following on Facebook yesterday: Talk about close races! As of last night’s “unofficial” results, only 27 votes separate Anne Sung and me. Given the tightness of the race, I feel compelled on behalf of all of … Continue reading →

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Sung nips Luman in HISD runoff

Posted on December 11, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

By twenty-seven votes. Anne Sung narrowly defeated John Luman in a runoff election Saturday to take a seat on the Houston Independent School District board of trustees. Sung, who turns 38 Sunday, had the backing of the Houston Federation of … Continue reading →

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Runoff Day for HISD special election

Posted on December 10, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Saturday, Dec. 10, is Election Day for voters in HISD Trustee District VII and City of Baytown Council District 3. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. There are 178,717 registered voters in HISD … Continue reading →

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Runoff early voting: Light turnout

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Hey, remember that there’s a runoff for the special election to fill the HISD Trustee position in District VII? Well, early voting for it ended on Tuesday, and turnout so far is about what you’d expect for such an election. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: None of the above

Posted on December 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Posted on December 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Posted on December 5, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 … Continue reading →

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Time once again to discuss Latino political participation

Posted on December 1, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s jump right in. The long wait continues for Houston and Harris County residents eager for a steep uptick in elected Latino representation. Hispanic residents last year were 42 percent of the county population, up from 23 percent in 1990, … Continue reading →

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