Category Archives: Election 2020

Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on December 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction All right, let’s get this party started. In the past I’ve generally done the top races by themselves, but any race involving Trump provides challenges, because his level of support just varies in comparison to other Republicans depending on … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part seven: West Texas

Posted on December 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas Part 6 – Central Texas Last entry in this series, and … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part six: Central Texas

Posted on December 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas We move on now to counties in Central Texas, which for … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part five: East Texas

Posted on December 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar The next three entries in this series will look at regions, and counties of interest within … Continue reading →

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Interview with Isabel Longoria

Posted on December 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Following on to my interview with Chris Hollins, today I have for you a conversation with our brand new and first-ever Election Administrator in Harris County, Isabel Longoria. Longoria is a former legislative staffer who ran for City Council in … Continue reading →

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Interview with Chris Hollins

Posted on November 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

To put a bow on this long, strange trip that was the 2020 election season, I have a couple of interviews to bring you with key players from the election. The first is with Chris Hollins, the now-former Harris County … Continue reading →

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What the Early Voting Ballot Board does

Posted on November 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

They were especially important this year. In the wake of the Nov. 3 general election, the air is filled with an overwhelming amount of disinformation about vote counting, specifically as it relates to mail ballots and provisional ballots. In Michigan, … Continue reading →

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Early voting starts today for District B runoff

Posted on November 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At long last, the voters in District B will get to elect a new City Council member. . Over the weekend we mailed out 12,000 mail ballots for the December Runoff Election. In person Early Voting starts Wednesday! #HarrisVotes #HouNews … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part four: Around Bexar

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Pop quiz, hotshot: Close your eyes, or cover the table below, and name for me the seven counties that border Bexar. Go … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part three: Around Travis

Posted on November 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Travis County has been at the forefront of the Democratic renaissance in Texas, punching well above its weight with both performance and turnout. Its blue essence has been … Continue reading →

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Beware color-coded county maps

Posted on November 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I spotted this on Twitter the other day and it got me thinking: . Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama’s 3.86 pt win in 2012. He’ll exceed it soon. They won by … Continue reading →

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A high level look at the changing suburbs

Posted on November 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a broad and high-level look at what I’m digging into now. Although they didn’t get the blue wave they expected, Democrats narrowed the gap with Republicans in five of the most competitive and populous suburban counties in … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part two: Around the Metroplex

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post. County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift ========================================================================= Collin 196,888 101,415 201,014 140,624 … Continue reading →

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Please stop with the straight ticket voting anecdotes

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Either bring me some real data or leave these just so stories alone. Judging from Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Dallas County, Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button should have been doomed this November. Meyer and Button are the only two … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part one: Around Harris

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s been so much focus in the past couple of years about the suburbs and how their traditional voting patterns have changed. I wanted to use the election results we have to take a closer look at what that means. … Continue reading →

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The poll workers’ stories

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Some good news. With a record 2,431,457 registered voters on the rolls in Harris County, there were several reasons poll workers expected a huge turnout and they got it, but not on Election Day. Two judges working two of the … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 2

Posted on November 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

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The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

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Harris County posts updated election results

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . That won’t affect most races, and it probably does not affect any Harris-County specific races. But if provisional ballots are like that statewide, it could affect larger, close elections. I’m particularly watching Chief Justice for the 14th … Continue reading →

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So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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By the way, we’re still counting votes here in Texas

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In case you were wondering. Harris County is still counting ballots, too, just like counties all across Texas. We’re not focused on that right now, because Texas went to President Donald Trump on election night. But more than 100 people … Continue reading →

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More early data from State Rep districts

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Derek Ryan on Twitter: . President Trump won House District 74, a Democrat-held district in West Texas along the border, with 53.1%. He also won House District 31, a Democrat-held district in South Texas with 56.2%. — Derek Ryan … Continue reading →

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For a million bucks, I’ll tell you where to find Bigfoot

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

That’s about as likely to happen as this is. As GOP lawyers and leaders frantically search for proof of fraud to back allegations of election irregularities, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick offered to pay tipsters at least $25,000 for information leading … Continue reading →

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The next elections

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a reminder, there are two elections on the calendar for December: . Reminder: the runoff election for Houston City Council District B will be December 12 https://bit.ly/3ld1nd2 Need to update your voter registration? https://hctax.net/Voter/Registration — Isabel Longoria (@LongoriaTX) 09:48 … Continue reading →

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Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

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What might the Lege do to make voting easier, or harder?

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I confess, I didn’t read most of this story about the various problems some people had in voting, and the various theories as to what was happening during voting, mostly because it contained way too many quotes from Jared Woodfill. … Continue reading →

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It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

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A few words about election security

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Lisa Gray talks to my friend Dan Wallach about everybody’s favorite subject. If I’m aiming to steal an election, what’s the best way to go about it? Are mail-in ballots the easiest? If your goal is to steal an election, … Continue reading →

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A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

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A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

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Menefee and Fagan

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’m delighted about the election of Christian Menefee as Harris County Attorney, and look forward to his inauguration. Christian Menefee, the youngest and first African-American elected Harris County attorney Tuesday evening, took little time to celebrate his historic victory. By … Continue reading →

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A few observations from the final unofficial countywide data

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is still unofficial, and there will still be some overseas/military ballots to be counted as well as some provisional ballots to be cured, but the count of the votes cast by Election Day is over, and we have the … Continue reading →

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Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

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