As I said yesterday, the Day One early voting report came in a little too late on Monday night for me to queue this up for Tuesday. It’s also the case that comparing this year to 2020 is not going to work, as there was an extra week of early voting in 2020 due to COVID, but it started on Tuesday because of the Indigenous Peoples Day holiday. As such, while we can define “Day One” easily enough for comparison purposes, it gets out of whack after that. I suppose that’s tomorrow’s problem for me now. So let’s take a look at what we have right now and figure it out from there. Here are the EV reports, Day One for 2024 and final reports otherwise:
Year Mail Early Total
===============================
2024 27,027 125,472 152,499
2020 41,337 128,082 169,419
2016 61,543 67,471 129,014
2016 was a fairly normal year as far as early voting went, though Day One was the slowest non-Sunday day for in person voting of the entire period. The daily in person totals were pretty steady with a modest uptick on the last day. 2020 was huge for the first (four-day) week, then settled in at a lower level the rest of the way, with no real “last day” surge. It’s too soon to say what 2024 will be like, but I expect the shape to be more like 2016.
What really stands out to me is the mail ballots. Not just the total number returned – again, 2020 was weird – but in terms of their potential. The daily reports also say how many total mail ballots have been sent out, so you can see what the potential total for them could be. Here are the “ballots mailed out” totals for these elections:
2024 – 71,242
2020 – 238,062
2016 – 129,014
Throw out the 2020 number for a minute, we know that was inflated by then-County Clerk Chris Hollins sending mail ballots to everyone who was eligible to receive one. The total number of mail ballots sent out this year is barely more than the number returned on Day One of 2016. It’s not much more than half of the total sent out in 2016. That’s a huge dropoff, and not what I was expecting. We know how much Donald Trump has poisoned the well of mail ballots for Republicans (certain parts of North Carolina excepted), but this seems like a low-ish number even for just Democrats. It may well be that more people are planning to vote in person this year. I don’t have a good explanation beyond that. I’ll keep an eye on it – there may yet be a lot more ballots to be mailed out.
Anyway, that’s what stands out to me at this time. Just to add a bit of reading to this post, I liked the Houston Landing’s Day One coverage of early voting. And this Trib story about an incumbent Republican State Rep. who basically hired four children to be in a campaign ad for her as her “family” is one of those where all you can do is chuckle and shake your head.
Let me know what you think. Have you voted yet?
UPDATE: Don’t fall for disinformation.
With the early voting period underway in Texas, election disinformation is making the rounds, including a misleading message that has resurfaced from previous years.
Houstonians have reported receiving a text message that cautions voters to check for markings on their ballots to prevent their votes from being invalidated, the Harris County Democratic Party said. The same text went out during the 2020 presidential election, according to PolitiFact.
The message appears to come from someone qualified to give election advice: “Just finished Poll Manager training! I passed all the classes.” It goes on to warn voters to check their ballots for “a letter, a checkmark, a star, an R or a D any writing of any kind” because the “ballot could be disqualified if it is written on.”
The text message should be disregarded, Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth’s office said.
The Texas election code requires ballots to be marked with Hudspeth’s initials during the early voting period or the polling location presiding judge’s initials on Election Day, Hudspeth said in a statement on Monday.
“I assure voters that either my initials or the presiding judge’s signature is required by the Texas Election Code. Any claims to the contrary are misleading, false and reckless,” Hudspeth said.
I can’t stop anyone from believing whatever they want, but if I were you I’d listen to Teneshia Hudspeth and not this random text from an unknown number and a total stranger. Other states have their own problems to deal with.
I moved back to the area in 2020, and of course that election was not normal. I have voted in every election since then, and by God, there are a lot of elections-4 primaries this year. Anyway, the point is that whenever I vote, the place is empty. This spring I voted early voting at Wheeler Baptist a couple of hours after it opened and I was the first voter of the day. I voted yesterday at UH campus, and it was slammed. I have early voted there before for the midterms in 2022, and it was empty. So hopefully this means something for this election, at least I am carrying some good vibes.
this doesnt spell well for democrats at all…mail in ballots nationwide are WAY DOWN, and early voting turnout in rural counties are over performing previous elections.
Pingback: November 2024 early voting Day Two: On average | Off the Kuff
Pingback: Texas blog roundup for the week of October 28 | Off the Kuff