I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests did against the 2020 and 2018 numbers that we saw in the redistricting reports. This isn’t my preferred kind of comparison – there are too many uncontested races, some “contested” races really aren’t because of poor candidate quality, incumbents tend to have a bit of an edge – but it’s what we’ve got for now. My impressions of the numbers for the new State Rep districts are here, and the Texas Legislative Council reports can be found here for 2020 and here for 2018. First up is 2020:
Dist Biden Trump Hegar Cornyn Dem Rep
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128 31.6% 67.1% 30.6% 67.2% 29.5% 70.5%
129 42.2% 56.2% 39.4% 58.0% 39.2% 60.8%
131 79.6% 19.5% 77.3% 19.9% 80.5% 19.5%
132 42.9% 55.6% 40.0% 57.6% 40.3% 59.7%
133 48.4% 50.3% 43.2% 54.9% 36.4% 61.4%
134 62.5% 36.1% 56.6% 41.7% 61.6% 37.1%
135 59.9% 38.7% 57.5% 39.4% 57.6% 42.4%
138 46.6% 52.0% 42.8% 55.0% 42.9% 57.1%
145 70.1% 28.3% 66.2% 30.8% 71.3% 28.7%
148 58.1% 40.5% 55.3% 41.7% 55.5% 42.6%
149 61.7% 37.2% 59.7% 37.5% 59.8% 37.7%
150 42.1% 56.5% 39.5% 57.9% 39.3% 60.7%
Biden generally outperformed the rest of the ticket by two or three points, more in some places like HDs 133 and 134. It’s clear he drew some crossover votes, so matching his performance is a sign of great strength. MJ Hegar was more of a typical Dem performer, and ideally a Dem in 2022 would do at least as well as she did. Note that most of the individual State Rep races were straight up D versus R, but in the cases where the percentages don’t add up to 100, assume there was a third party candidate as well. Most Dems met the Hegar standard, with incumbent Reps. Alma Allen (HD131) and Christina Morales (HD145) outdoing even the Biden number. On the other side, HD133 GOP candidate Mano DeAyala easily stomped a Democrat whose existence even I didn’t know about.
On to 2018:
Dist Beto Cruz Valdez Abbott Dem Rep
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128 32.6% 66.8% 29.1% 69.7% 29.5% 70.5%
129 42.8% 56.3% 36.8% 61.5% 39.2% 60.8%
131 85.2% 14.3% 80.4% 18.5% 80.5% 19.5%
132 41.8% 57.5% 36.2% 62.3% 40.3% 59.7%
133 46.1% 53.1% 37.9% 60.3% 36.4% 61.4%
134 62.4% 36.8% 52.5% 45.3% 61.6% 37.1%
135 64.4% 35.0% 59.4% 39.2% 57.6% 42.4%
138 46.4% 52.8% 39.6% 58.7% 42.9% 57.1%
145 75.0% 24.1% 67.5% 30.4% 71.3% 28.7%
148 62.7% 37.5% 56.1% 42.4% 55.5% 42.6%
149 68.7% 30.6% 64.0% 34.8% 59.8% 37.7%
150 41.2% 58.1% 36.3% 62.4% 39.3% 60.7%
Beto and Valdez represented the top and bottom of the scale for Dems this year. It’s clear that Dems fell short of the 2018 standard this year, with the 2022 version of Beto being somewhat above the Valdez line. In general, Biden did about as well in most districts as Beto had done two years before, though there are exceptions, of which HDs 135 and 149 are the most interesting. I don’t want to read too much into any single number here – this was a year I’d classify as an underperforming one for Dems overall, though at a much higher baseline than we were used to for off years, and I’d expect better numbers in 2024. Dems have the same targets as before in HDs 132 and 138, while if I were the Republicans I’d take a closer look at what’s going on in 135 and 148. The actual me really wants to see the full canvass data to see how the broader ticket did in these districts. Let me know what you think.
1 day and counting…………