PREVIOUSLY
Beto versus Abbott
Beto versus the spread
Hidalgo versus Mealer
As noted before, Greg Abbott got 490K votes in Harris County, far less than the 559K he received in 2018 running against Lupe Valdez. Of the other six races for statewide executive offices, three were similar in nature to the Governor’s race and three were friendlier to Republicans. This post is about the first three, and those are the races for Lite Guv, Attorney General, and Ag Commissioner. For those of you whose memories stretch back as far as 2018, yes those were the three best races for Dems after the Beto-Cruz race for Senate as well. Let’s look at the numbers.
Lieutenant Governor
Dist Patrick Collier Lib
==============================
HD126 35,244 23,460 1,482
HD127 38,578 26,405 1,691
HD128 31,548 13,748 1,148
HD129 36,347 26,966 1,802
HD130 44,307 20,934 1,434
HD131 5,886 24,670 933
HD132 34,417 25,498 1,374
HD133 31,931 27,421 1,396
HD134 28,262 51,502 1,828
HD135 16,373 23,514 1,050
HD137 7,690 13,164 650
HD138 30,328 25,534 1,383
HD139 11,536 31,304 1,246
HD140 5,850 12,681 647
HD141 4,494 20,290 851
HD142 8,641 25,030 1,043
HD143 8,469 15,270 804
HD144 11,551 14,029 854
HD145 12,368 32,031 1,449
HD146 8,285 33,018 1,148
HD147 8,809 36,618 1,383
HD148 15,383 20,840 1,065
HD149 11,923 19,315 824
HD150 33,548 22,898 1,431
CC1 65,573 204,223 7,632
CC2 94,272 105,549 6,218
CC3 214,555 146,441 8,815
CC4 107,368 129,927 6,251
JP1 58,698 126,202 5,083
JP2 21,608 29,498 1,599
JP3 34,975 41,776 2,126
JP4 166,204 128,604 7,578
JP5 137,161 147,432 7,185
JP6 4,941 17,062 885
JP7 11,370 65,643 2,250
JP8 46,811 29,923 2,210
Dist Patrick% Collier% Lib%
==============================
HD126 58.56% 38.98% 2.46%
HD127 57.86% 39.60% 2.54%
HD128 67.93% 29.60% 2.47%
HD129 55.82% 41.41% 2.77%
HD130 66.45% 31.40% 2.15%
HD131 18.69% 78.34% 2.96%
HD132 56.16% 41.60% 2.24%
HD133 52.56% 45.14% 2.30%
HD134 34.64% 63.12% 2.24%
HD135 40.00% 57.44% 2.56%
HD137 35.76% 61.22% 3.02%
HD138 52.98% 44.60% 2.42%
HD139 26.17% 71.01% 2.83%
HD140 30.50% 66.12% 3.37%
HD141 17.53% 79.15% 3.32%
HD142 24.89% 72.10% 3.00%
HD143 34.51% 62.22% 3.28%
HD144 43.70% 53.07% 3.23%
HD145 26.98% 69.86% 3.16%
HD146 19.52% 77.78% 2.70%
HD147 18.82% 78.23% 2.95%
HD148 41.25% 55.89% 2.86%
HD149 37.19% 60.24% 2.57%
HD150 57.96% 39.56% 2.47%
CC1 23.64% 73.61% 2.75%
CC2 45.75% 51.23% 3.02%
CC3 58.02% 39.60% 2.38%
CC4 44.09% 53.35% 2.57%
JP1 30.90% 66.43% 2.68%
JP2 41.00% 55.97% 3.03%
JP3 44.34% 52.96% 2.70%
JP4 54.96% 42.53% 2.51%
JP5 47.01% 50.53% 2.46%
JP6 21.59% 74.55% 3.87%
JP7 14.34% 82.82% 2.84%
JP8 59.30% 37.90% 2.80%
Attorney General
Dist Paxton Garza Lib
==============================
HD126 35,146 23,166 1,681
HD127 38,480 26,208 1,817
HD128 31,566 13,692 1,110
HD129 36,386 26,643 1,914
HD130 44,397 20,427 1,713
HD131 5,857 24,875 694
HD132 34,454 25,125 1,539
HD133 31,901 26,700 1,898
HD134 28,201 50,706 2,371
HD135 16,314 23,615 964
HD137 7,704 13,091 643
HD138 30,154 25,204 1,732
HD139 11,438 31,372 1,145
HD140 5,605 13,078 466
HD141 4,487 20,489 610
HD142 8,580 25,228 859
HD143 8,346 15,595 594
HD144 11,375 14,337 662
HD145 12,220 32,097 1,425
HD146 8,320 32,991 999
HD147 8,731 36,766 1,206
HD148 15,221 20,981 1,035
HD149 11,876 19,423 706
HD150 33,382 22,726 1,595
CC1 65,204 204,223 7,257
CC2 93,611 106,606 5,426
CC3 214,042 144,575 10,162
CC4 107,284 129,131 6,533
JP1 58,125 125,740 5,522
JP2 21,364 29,906 1,317
JP3 34,843 42,072 1,833
JP4 165,760 127,783 8,087
JP5 136,969 146,132 7,898
JP6 4,815 17,369 687
JP7 11,411 65,835 1,804
JP8 46,854 29,698 2,230
Dist Paxton% Garza% Lib%
==============================
HD126 58.58% 38.61% 2.80%
HD127 57.86% 39.41% 2.73%
HD128 68.08% 29.53% 2.39%
HD129 56.03% 41.03% 2.95%
HD130 66.73% 30.70% 2.57%
HD131 18.64% 79.15% 2.21%
HD132 56.37% 41.11% 2.52%
HD133 52.73% 44.13% 3.14%
HD134 34.70% 62.39% 2.92%
HD135 39.89% 57.75% 2.36%
HD137 35.94% 61.06% 3.00%
HD138 52.82% 44.15% 3.03%
HD139 26.02% 71.37% 2.60%
HD140 29.27% 68.30% 2.43%
HD141 17.54% 80.08% 2.38%
HD142 24.75% 72.77% 2.48%
HD143 34.02% 63.56% 2.42%
HD144 43.13% 54.36% 2.51%
HD145 26.72% 70.17% 3.12%
HD146 19.66% 77.97% 2.36%
HD147 18.69% 78.72% 2.58%
HD148 40.88% 56.34% 2.78%
HD149 37.11% 60.69% 2.21%
HD150 57.85% 39.38% 2.76%
CC1 23.57% 73.81% 2.62%
CC2 45.52% 51.84% 2.64%
CC3 58.04% 39.20% 2.76%
CC4 44.16% 53.15% 2.69%
JP1 30.69% 66.39% 2.92%
JP2 40.63% 56.87% 2.50%
JP3 44.25% 53.43% 2.33%
JP4 54.95% 42.36% 2.68%
JP5 47.07% 50.22% 2.71%
JP6 21.05% 75.94% 3.00%
JP7 14.44% 83.28% 2.28%
JP8 59.47% 37.70% 2.83%
Dan Patrick (481K votes) and Ken Paxton (480K) were the two low scorers among Republicans. Mike Collier and Rochelle Garza both had leads against them of just over 100K votes, right in line with Beto’s lead against Abbott. That’s not as robust as what Dems did in 2018 as we know, but I can’t blame Collier and Garza for that. They were still top scorers, it was mostly that the environment wasn’t as good for them.
Overall, it looks like Collier and Garza did about as well percentage-wise as Beto did. Collier actually did a tiny bit better in HD133, and both did better in HD134. In some cases, like HD132 and HD138, Collier and Garza were about equal with Beto but Patrick and Paxton were a point or two behind Abbott. That looks to me to be the effect of the larger Libertarian vote in those races – there were about 29K Lib votes in these two races, while there were about 16K third party and write-in votes for Governor. At least in those cases, you can make the claim that the Libertarian received votes that might have otherwise gone to the Republican.
In the Ag Commissioner race, Sid Miller got 507K votes to top Abbott’s total, but he was aided by not having any third party candidates. Susan Hays did pretty well compared to the other Dems in that straight up two-way race:
Ag Commissioner
Dist Miller Hays
======================
HD126 36,872 22,678
HD127 40,060 25,992
HD128 32,447 13,641
HD129 38,091 26,236
HD130 46,273 19,792
HD131 6,091 25,170
HD132 36,189 24,576
HD133 34,548 25,581
HD134 31,793 48,687
HD135 17,174 23,491
HD137 8,207 13,090
HD138 32,276 24,389
HD139 12,291 31,372
HD140 5,904 13,079
HD141 4,667 20,779
HD142 9,047 25,391
HD143 8,631 15,710
HD144 11,849 14,344
HD145 13,871 31,301
HD146 8,922 33,114
HD147 9,761 36,482
HD148 16,238 20,657
HD149 12,270 19,513
HD150 34,895 22,408
CC1 71,746 202,649
CC2 97,753 106,167
CC3 224,670 141,583
CC4 114,198 127,074
JP1 64,850 122,675
JP2 22,256 29,898
JP3 35,923 42,332
JP4 173,381 126,119
JP5 145,619 143,496
JP6 5,243 17,412
JP7 12,266 66,242
JP8 48,829 29,299
Dist Miller% Hays%
=======================
HD126 61.92% 38.08%
HD127 60.65% 39.35%
HD128 70.40% 29.60%
HD129 59.21% 40.79%
HD130 70.04% 29.96%
HD131 19.48% 80.52%
HD132 59.56% 40.44%
HD133 57.46% 42.54%
HD134 39.50% 60.50%
HD135 42.23% 57.77%
HD137 38.54% 61.46%
HD138 56.96% 43.04%
HD139 28.15% 71.85%
HD140 31.10% 68.90%
HD141 18.34% 81.66%
HD142 26.27% 73.73%
HD143 35.46% 64.54%
HD144 45.24% 54.76%
HD145 30.71% 69.29%
HD146 21.22% 78.78%
HD147 21.11% 78.89%
HD148 44.01% 55.99%
HD149 38.61% 61.39%
HD150 60.90% 39.10%
CC1 26.15% 73.85%
CC2 47.94% 52.06%
CC3 61.34% 38.66%
CC4 47.33% 52.67%
JP1 34.58% 65.42%
JP2 42.67% 57.33%
JP3 45.91% 54.09%
JP4 57.89% 42.11%
JP5 50.37% 49.63%
JP6 23.14% 76.86%
JP7 15.62% 84.38%
JP8 62.50% 37.50%
Miller was definitely a slight notch up from the first three. How much of that is the lack of a third choice versus some other consideration I couldn’t say, but you can see it in the numbers.
I’ll get into it a bit more in the next post when we look at the higher-scoring Republicans, but my sense is that these three Dems, plus Beto, received some crossovers. Beto and Collier and Garza had enough money to at least run some ads, while Hays was still running against perhaps the highest-profile (read: got the most negative news for his ridiculous actions) incumbent after those three. We have definitely seen races like this, certainly in elections going back to 2016 – Hillary versus Trump, Biden versus Trump, Beto and the Lite Guv/AG/Ag Commish triumvirate this year and 2018. We saw it with Bill White in 2010, too – as I’ve observed in the past, White received something like 300K votes from people who otherwise voted Republican. That’s a lot! Democrats can persuade at least some Republicans to vote for their statewide candidates, but only under some conditions. If we can get the baseline vote to be closer, that could be enough to push some people over the top. We’re still working on the first part of that equation.
Like I said, I’ll get into that a bit more in the next post. Looking at what I’ve written here, I need to do a post about third party votes, too. Let me know what you think.
In November of 2024 the election results will make it 30 years that the Texas Democrats have failed to win a statewide office. I can’t imagine how anyone can take the Texas Democratic Party seriously. I used to but it became obvious that they aren’t really trying win elections in Texas. It’s a shame because there is opportunity due to the State GOP’s extreme positions. Yet The Texas Democrats consistently talk past Texas voters.
Greg,
Did you fail to notice the lunacy of the Republican party voters in the equation of winning state office?
Frederick, I do not question the extreme positions that the State GOP has taken on a number of issues. I strongly believe that most Texas believe that they are extreme as well. But simply saying that the voters are lunatics does not refute my assertion. Texas Democrats have campaigned to the left of Texas voters for decades. The Party has two choices, either do some self-reflecting and determine what Texas voters want (the answer is “opportunity.” That’s way the people keep moving here) or take the position that long time Alabama Democratic Party leader Joe Reed stated a few years ago, “We are not the problem, the voters need to become more progressive.” You see how that is going. I hope that you and your family have a happy new year.
As long as the Democratic Party keeps putting forth candidates with a history of losing a Senator, President, or Governor campaign (for example), I will expect the same results in the future.